Since 2000, the efficacy of foot and mouth disease (FMD) control at the edge of Kruger National Park (KNP) has deteriorated and needs urgent action.

This model quantifies the risk of FMD transmission from buffalo to cattle and fits with past and current numbers of outbreaks in the study area.

The model takes into account variability and uncertainty of key ecological and epidemiological parameters linked with FMD transmission.

Several management and control strategies are presented and their impact in FMD transmission is discussed.

The model can be used as an assessment tool for control strategies in other wildlife–livestock interface areas in the Southern African region.