We modeled effects of climate and vegetation change on lake water δ18O in the Maya area.
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Past shifts in vegetation cover fail to fully account for changes in lake water δ18O.
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Model results reveal late Holocene rainfall variability in the Maya Lowlands.
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Model results indicate protracted aridity between 1500 and 800 cal yr BP.
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The period of intense aridity is associated with Classic Maya cultural decline.
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