Estimates of twenty-first century sea-level changes for Norway

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• 作者：Matthew J. R. Simpson (1)
  Kristian Breili (1)
  Halfdan P. Kierulf (1) (2)
  
• 关键词：Sea ; level projections ; Glacial isostatic adjustment ; Norway
• 刊名：Climate Dynamics
• 出版年：2014
• 出版时间：March 2014
• 年：2014
• 卷：42
• 期：5-6
• 页码：1405-1424
• 全文大小：2,556 KB
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• 作者单位：Matthew J. R. Simpson (1)
  Kristian Breili (1)
  Halfdan P. Kierulf (1) (2)
  
  1. Geodetic Institute, Norwegian Mapping Authority, H?nefoss, Norway
  2. Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
  
• ISSN：1432-0894

文摘

In this work we establish a framework for estimating future regional sea-level changes for Norway. Following recently published works, we consider how different physical processes drive non-uniform sea-level changes by accounting for spatial variations in (1) ocean density and circulation (2) ice and ocean mass changes and associated gravitational effects on sea level and (3) vertical land motion arising from past surface loading change and associated gravitational effects on sea level. An important component of past and present sea-level change in Norway is glacial isostatic adjustment. Central to our study, therefore, is a reassessment of vertical land motion using a far larger set of new observations from a permanent GNSS network. Our twenty-first century sea-level estimates are split into two parts. Firstly, we show regional projections largely based on findings from the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) and dependent on the emission scenarios A2, A1B and B1. These indicate that twenty-first century relative sea-level changes in Norway will vary between ?.2 to 0.3?m (1-sigma?±?0.13?m). Secondly, we explore a high-end scenario, in which a global atmospheric temperature rise of up to 6?°C and emerging collapse for some areas of the Antarctic ice sheets are assumed. Using this approach twenty-first century relative sea-level changes in Norway are found to vary between 0.25 and 0.85?m (min/max?±?0.45?m). We attach no likelihood to any of our projections owing to the lack of understanding of some of the processes that cause sea-level change.