Comparative Study of Three Updating Procedures for Real-Time Flood Forecasting

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• 作者：Zhangjun Liu ; Shenglian Guo ; Honggang Zhang ; Dedi Liu…
• 关键词：Flood forecasting ; Real ; time updating ; Autoregressive model ; Recursive least ; squares model ; Hydrologic uncertainty processor
• 刊名：Water Resources Management
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：May 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：30
• 期：7
• 页码：2111-2126
• 全文大小：632 KB
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• 作者单位：Zhangjun Liu (1)
  Shenglian Guo (1)
  Honggang Zhang (2)
  Dedi Liu (1)
  Guang Yang (1)
  
  1. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, China
  2. Bureau of International Cooperation, Science and Technology, Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan, 430010, China
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Hydrogeology
  Geotechnical Engineering
  Meteorology and Climatology
  Civil Engineering
  Environment
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-1650

文摘

Accurate real-time flood forecasting is essential for flood control and warning system, reservoir operation and other relevant water resources management activities. The objective of this study is to investigate and compare the capability of three updating procedures, namely autoregressive (AR) model, recursive least-squares (RLS) model and hydrologic uncertainty processor (HUP) in the real-time flood forecasting. The Baiyunshan reservoir basin located in southern China was selected as a case study. These three procedures were employed to update outputs of the established Xinanjiang flood forecasting model. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and Relative Error (RE) are used as model evaluation criteria. It is found that all of these three updating procedures significantly improve the accuracy of Xinanjiang model when operating in real-time forecasting mode. Comparison results also indicated that the HUP performed better than the AR and RLS models, while RLS model was slightly superior to AR model. In addition, the HUP implemented in the probabilistic form can quantify the uncertainty of the actual discharge to be forecasted and provide a posterior distribution as well as interval estimation, which offer more useful information than two other deterministic updating procedures. Thus, the HUP updating procedure is more promising and recommended for real-time flood forecasting in practice.