| |
Uncertainty, cost-effectiveness and environmental safety of robust carbon trading: integrated approach
- 作者:T. Ermolieva (1)
Y. Ermoliev (1) M. Jonas (1) M. Obersteiner (1) F. Wagner (1) W. Winiwarter (1) (2)
- 刊名:Climatic Change
- 出版年:2014
- 出版时间:June 2014
- 年:2014
- 卷:124
- 期:3
- 页码:633-646
- 全文大小:
- 参考文献:1. Amann M (2009) Integrated assessment tools: the greenhouse and air pollution interactions and synergies (GAINS) model. Pollut Atmosph Special Issue 73-6
2. Baumol W, Oates W (1975) The theory of environmental policy. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, New York, Sydney 3. Betz R, Sato M (2006) Emissions trading: lessons learnt from the 1st phase of the EU ETS and prospects for the 2nd phase. Clim Pol 6:351-59 ternal" href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2006.9685607" target="_blank" title="It opens in new window">CrossRef 4. Dales JH (1968) Pollution property and prices: an essena in policy-making and economics. University of Toronto Press 5. De Jong C, Walet K (eds) (2004) A guide for emission trading: risk management and business implications. Risk Books, London 6. Ermoliev Y, von Winterfeldt D (2012) Systemic risk and security management. In: Ermoliev Y, Makowski M, Marti K (eds) Managing Safety of heterogeneous systems. Springer, Berlin, pp 19-9 ternal" href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-22884-1_2" target="_blank" title="It opens in new window">CrossRef 7. Ermoliev Y, Wets R (eds) (1988) Numerical techniques of stochastic optimization. Computational mathematics. Springer Verlag, Berlin 8. Ermoliev Y, Michalevich M, Nentjes A (2000) Markets for tradable emission and ambient permits: a dynamic approach. Environ Res Econ 15:39-6 ternal" href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1008369611378" target="_blank" title="It opens in new window">CrossRef 9. Ermolieva T, Ermoliev Y (2005) Catastrophic risk management: flood and seismic risks case studies. In: Wallace SW, Ziemba WT (eds) Applications of stochastic programming. MPS-SIAM Series on Optimization, Philadelphia 10. Ermolieva T, Ermoliev Y, Fischer G, Jonas M, Makowski M (2010a) Cost effective and environmentally safe emission trading under uncertainty. In: Marti K, Ermoliev Y, Makowski M (eds) Coping with uncertainty: robust solutions. Springer, Heidelberg, pp 79-9 ternal" href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-03735-1_5" target="_blank" title="It opens in new window">CrossRef 11. Ermolieva T, Ermoliev Y, Fischer G, Jonas M, Makowski M, Wagner F (2010b) Carbon emission trading and carbon taxes under uncertainties. Clim Chang 103(1-) 12. Evstigneev I, Flam S (2001) Sharing nonconvex cost. J Glob Optim 20:257-71 ternal" href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1017599310112" target="_blank" title="It opens in new window">CrossRef 13. Gillenwater M, Sussman F, Cohen J (2007) Practical policy applications of uncertainty analysis for national greenhouse gas inventories. In: Lieberman D, Jonas J, Nahorski Z, Nilson S (eds) Accounting for climate change: uncertainty in greenhouse gas inventories–verification, compliance, and trading. Springer Verlag 14. Godal O, Ermoliev Y, Klassen G, Obersteiner M (2003) Carbon trading with imperfectly observable emissions. Environ Res Econ 25:151-69 ternal" href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1023914324084" target="_blank" title="It opens in new window">CrossRef 15. IPCC (2000) Good practice guidance and uncertainty management in national greenhouse gas inventories. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme, Hayama 16. Kerr S (ed) (2000) Global emissions trading: key issues for industrialized countries. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK, Northampton, MA, US 17. Lieberman D, Jonas M, Nahorski Z, Nilsson S (2007) Accounting for climate change: uncertainty in greenhouse gas inventories―verification, compliance, and trading. Springer Verlag, Berlin ternal" href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-5930-8" target="_blank" title="It opens in new window">CrossRef 18. McCain R (2010) Game theory: a nontechnical introduction to the analysis of strategy. World Scientific Publishing, ISBN-13 978-981-4289-65-8 19. Milgrom P, Roberts J (1986) Price and advertising signals of product quality. J Polit Econ 94:796-21 ternal" href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/261408" target="_blank" title="It opens in new window">CrossRef 20. Montgomery DW (1972) Markets in licenses and efficient pollution control programs. J Public Econ 75:273-91 21. Nahorski Z, Horabik J, Jonas M (2007) Compliance and emissions trading under the Kyoto protocol: rules for uncertain inventories. In: Lieberman D, Jonas M, Nahorski Z, Nilsson S (eds) Accounting for climate change: uncertainty in greenhouse gas inventories–verification, compliance, and trading. Springer Verlag 119-38 22. Nahorski Z, Stanczak J, Palka P (2010) Multi-agent approach to simulation of the greenhouse gases emission permits market. In: Proceedings of the 3rd International Workshop on Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories, 22-4 September 2010, Lvov, Ukraine, 183-95 23. Obersteiner M, Ermoliev Y, Gluck M, Jonas M, Nilsson S, Shvidenko A (2000) Avoiding a lemons market by including uncertainty in the Kyoto protocol: same mechanism–improved rules. Interim report IR-00-043. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg 24. Rockafellar T, Uryasev S (2000) Optimization of conditional value at risk. J Risk 2(3):21-1 25. Roos J (2011) EU emissions trading triggered dash for coal. The Breakthrough Institute, ttp://breakthrougheurope.org/" class="a-plus-plus">http://breakthrougheurope.org/ 26. Stavins R (2010) The problem of the commons: still unsettled after 100?years. Discussion paper RFF DP 10-6. Resources for the Future. Washington DC, ttp://www.rff.org/" class="a-plus-plus">www.rff.org 27. Stikkelman R, Dijkema G, Chappin E (2010) Emissions trading fails to reduce CO2 emissions. Delft University of Technology. Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management 28. Wagner F, Amann M (2009) GAINS contribution to ETMA request #2B-v1, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) 29. Wagner F, Amann M, Borken-Kleefeld J, Cofala J, H?glund-Isaksson L, Purohit P, Rafaj P, Sch?pp W, Winiwarter W (2012) Sectoral marginal abatement cost curves: implications for mitigation pledges and air pollution co-benefits for Annex I countries. Sustain Sci 7:169-84 ternal" href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11625-012-0167-3" target="_blank" title="It opens in new window">CrossRef 30. Winiwarter W (2007) National greenhouse gas inventories: understanding uncertainties versus potential for improving reliability. Water Air Soil Pollut 7:443-50. doi:10.1007/s11267-006-9117-3 ternal" href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11267-006-9117-3" target="_blank" title="It opens in new window">CrossRef 31. Winiwarter W, Muik B (2010) Statistical dependence in input data of national greenhouse gas inventories: effects on the overall inventory uncertainty. Clim Chang 103:19-6. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9921-7 ternal" href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9921-7" target="_blank" title="It opens in new window">CrossRef 32. Winiwarter W, Rypdal K (2001) Assessing the uncertainty associated with national greenhouse gas emission inventories: a case study for Austria. Atmos Environ 35:5425-440 ternal" href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1352-2310(01)00171-6" target="_blank" title="It opens in new window">CrossRef
- 作者单位:T. Ermolieva (1)
Y. Ermoliev (1) M. Jonas (1) M. Obersteiner (1) F. Wagner (1) W. Winiwarter (1) (2)
1. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361, Laxenburg, Austria 2. Institute for Systems Sciences, Innovation & Sustainability Research (ISIS), University of Graz, Merangasse 18, 8010, Graz, Austria
- ISSN:1573-1480
文摘
Carbon markets, like other commodity markets, are volatile. They react to stochastic “disequilibrium-spot prices, which may be affected by inadequate policies, speculations and bubbles. The market-based emission trading, therefore, does not necessarily minimize abatement costs and achieve emission reduction goals. We introduce a basic stochastic model integrating emissions reduction, monitoring and trading costs allowing us to analyze the robustness of emission and uncertainty reduction policies under environmental safety constraints asymmetric information and other multiple anthropogenic and natural uncertainties. Explicit treatment of uncertainties provides incentives for reducing them before trading. We illustrate functioning of the robust market with numerical results involving such countries as the US, Australia, Canada, Japan, EU27, Russia, Ukraine. In particular, we analyze if the knowledge about uncertainties may affect portfolios of technological and trade policies or structure of the market and how uncertainty characteristics may affect market prices and change the market structure.
| |
NGLC 2004-2010.National Geological Library of China All Rights Reserved.
Add:29 Xueyuan Rd,Haidian District,Beijing,PRC. Mail Add: 8324 mailbox 100083
For exchange or info please contact us via email.
| |