Anthropogenic footprint of climate change in the June 2013 northern India flood

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• 作者：Changrae Cho ; Rong Li ; S.-Y. Wang ; Jin-Ho Yoon ; Robert R. Gillies
• 关键词：Extreme events ; Climate and weather interactions ; Greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing ; Synoptic wave train ; CMIP5 ; WRF model ; Cold air intrusion
• 刊名：Climate Dynamics
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：February 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：46
• 期：3-4
• 页码：797-805
• 全文大小：3,875 KB
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• 作者单位：Changrae Cho (1)
  Rong Li (1) (2)
  S.-Y. Wang (1) (2)
  Jin-Ho Yoon (3)
  Robert R. Gillies (1) (2)
  
  1. Utah Climate Center, Utah State University, Logan, UT, USA
  2. Department of Plants, Soils, and Climate, Utah State University, Logan, UT, USA
  3. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Geophysics and Geodesy
  Meteorology and Climatology
  Oceanography
  
• 出版者：Springer Berlin / Heidelberg
• ISSN：1432-0894

文摘

During 13–17 June 2013, heavy rainfall occurred in the northern Indian state of Uttarakhand and led to one of the worst floods in history and massive landslides, resulting in more than 5000 casualties and a huge loss of property. In this study, meteorological and climatic conditions leading up to this rainfall event in 2013 and similar cases were analyzed for the period of 1979–2012. Attribution analysis was performed to identify the natural and anthropogenic influences on the climate anomalies using the historical single-forcing experiments in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. In addition, regional modeling experiments were carried out to quantify the role of the long-term climate trends in affecting the rainfall magnitude of the June 2013 event. It was found that (a) northern India has experienced increasingly large rainfall in June since the late 1980s, (b) the increase in rainfall appears to be associated with a tendency in the upper troposphere towards amplified short waves, and (c) the phasing of such amplified short waves is tied to increased loading of green-house gases and aerosols. In addition, a regional modeling diagnosis attributed 60–90 % of rainfall amounts in the June 2013 event to post-1980 climate trends. Keywords Extreme events Climate and weather interactions Greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing Synoptic wave train CMIP5 WRF model Cold air intrusion