How does coldwave frequency in china respond to a warming climate?

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• 作者：Tingting Ma (1)
  Zhiwei Wu (2)
  Zhihong Jiang (1)
  
• 关键词：Coldwave frequency ; Global warming ; Climate change
• 刊名：Climate Dynamics
• 出版年：2012
• 出版时间：10 - November 2012
• 年：2012
• 卷：39
• 期：9
• 页码：2487-2496
• 全文大小：2896KB
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• 作者单位：Tingting Ma (1)
  Zhiwei Wu (2)
  Zhihong Jiang (1)
  
  1. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
  2. Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada, Dorval, QC, H9P 1J3, Canada
  
• ISSN：1432-0894

文摘

Under the background of a warming climate, regional climate responses may be different from place to place. How cold extreme events in China respond is still an open question. This study investigates responses of coldwave frequency (CWF) in China from observation and modeling perspectives. Observational evidences show that CWF significantly reduces across China during the warm period (1978-009) in comparison with that during the cold period (1957-977), concurrent with extreme value centers located in northern China during 1957-977 and southern China during 1978-009. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) leading mode of CWF in the cold period is also dominant by an extreme value center prevailing over northern China, while the center exhibits a southward shift in the warm period. A seven-member multi-model ensemble (MME) from coupled model intercomparison project#3 (CMIP3) shows that southern China tends to experience more coldwaves than northern China in the twenty first century (2045-064 and 2080-099) under the global warming A1B forcing (with atmospheric CO2 concentration of 720?ppm). This feature can also be seen in the leading EOF mode of MME. These results indicate that the primary response of CWF to a warming climate may be the southward shift of the maximum loading center. The enhanced western Pacific Subtropical High and weakened Siberian High during 1978-009 may result in anomalous southerlies which bring warm and wet air to southern China. Meanwhile cold and dry air is transported from the north via a “northwest pathway-to southern China. Under the joint action of these two air masses, coldwaves may easily generate in southern China as observed in recent extreme cold events in this region.