BET_VH: a probabilistic tool for long-term volcanic hazard assessment

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• 作者：Warner Marzocchi (1)
  Laura Sandri (2)
  Jacopo Selva (2)
  
• 关键词：Volcanic hazard ; Probabilistic assessment ; Bayesian event tree
• 刊名：Bulletin of Volcanology
• 出版年：2010
• 出版时间：August 2010
• 年：2010
• 卷：72
• 期：6
• 页码：705-716
• 全文大小：1193KB
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• 作者单位：Warner Marzocchi (1)
  Laura Sandri (2)
  Jacopo Selva (2)
  
  1. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143, Rome, Italy
  2. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna, Italy
  
• ISSN：1432-0819

文摘

In this paper, we illustrate a Bayesian Event Tree to estimate Volcanic Hazard (BET_VH). The procedure enables us to calculate the probability of any kind of long-term hazardous event for which we are interested, accounting for the intrinsic stochastic nature of volcanic eruptions and our limited knowledge regarding related processes. For the input, the code incorporates results from numerical models simulating the impact of hazardous volcanic phenomena on an area and data from the eruptive history. For the output, the code provides a wide and exhaustive set of spatiotemporal probabilities of different events; these probabilities are estimated by means of a Bayesian approach that allows all uncertainties to be properly accounted for. The code is able to deal with many eruptive settings simultaneously, weighting each with its own probability of occurrence. In a companion paper, we give a detailed example of application of this tool to the Campi Flegrei caldera, in order to estimate the hazard from tephra fall.