The role of climatic variables in winter cereal yields: a retrospective analysis

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• 作者：Qunying Luo (1)
  Li Wen (2)
  
  1. University of Technology ; Sydney ; PO Box 123 ; Broadway ; Sydney ; NSW ; 2007 ; Australia
  2. Office of Environment and Heritage ; Sydney ; NSW ; 2000 ; Australia
  
• 关键词：Atmospheric CO2 concentration ; Autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average ; Generalised additive model ; Season and non ; season rainfall ; Seasonal temperature ; Radiation ; Winter cereal yields
• 刊名：International Journal of Biometeorology
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：February 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：59
• 期：2
• 页码：181-192
• 全文大小：961 KB
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• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Life Sciences
  Animal Physiology
  Plant Physiology
  Environmental Medicine/Environmental Psychology
  
• 出版者：Springer Berlin / Heidelberg
• ISSN：1432-1254

文摘

This study examined the effects of observed climate including [CO2] on winter cereal [winter wheat (Triticum aestivum), barley (Hordeum vulgare) and oat (Avena sativa)] yields by adopting robust statistical analysis/modelling approaches (i.e. autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average, generalised addition model) based on long time series of historical climate data and cereal yield data at three locations (Moree, Dubbo and Wagga Wagga) in New South Wales, Australia. Research results show that (1) growing season rainfall was significantly, positively and non-linearly correlated with crop yield at all locations considered; (2) [CO2] was significantly, positively and non-linearly correlated with crop yields in all cases except wheat and barley yields at Wagga Wagga; (3) growing season maximum temperature was significantly, negatively and non-linearly correlated with crop yields at Dubbo and Moree (except for barley); and (4) radiation was only significantly correlated with oat yield at Wagga Wagga. This information will help to identify appropriate management adaptation options in dealing with the risk and in taking the opportunities of climate change.