Recessions, expectations, and labor supply dynamics

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• 作者：Maurizio Bovi ; Massimo Mancini
• 关键词：Expectations ; Labor supply dynamics ; Survey data ; Job search ; D84 ; J21 ; J64
• 刊名：Quality & Quantity
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：March 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：50
• 期：2
• 页码：653-671
• 全文大小：776 KB
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• 作者单位：Maurizio Bovi (1) (2)
  Massimo Mancini (2)
  
  1. Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
  2. Department of Forecasting and Econometric Analysis, Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), Piazza dell’Indipendenza, 4, 00185, Rome, RM, Italy
  
• 刊物类别：Humanities, Social Sciences and Law
• 刊物主题：Social Sciences
  Methodology of the Social Sciences
  Social Sciences
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-7845

文摘

We examine how expectations on macroeconomic evolutions affect as many as twelve different labor market status transitions in bad economic times. Such a refined analysis of job search frequencies highlights intriguing findings. In bad economic times, e.g. to make up for the loss in family income, not-working agents would like to work. On the other hand, individuals are somewhat discouraged by the deteriorated expectations and they exert only a limited search effort. This latter turns out to be insufficient to find work in poor labor markets. All in all, the evidence pins down the widespread presence of “timid” responses, depicting a hybrid picture that hardly can be related to one single theoretical approach. Specifically, our findings suggest refining the standard dichotomic setting behind the discouraged worker and added worker literature. Results are based on a battery of multinomial logit models and controlled for several individual-level and aggregate variables. Keywords Expectations Labor supply dynamics Survey data Job search