R&D investment dynamics under uncertainty: Theory and application.

详细信息   

• 作者：Yao ; Tao.
• 学历：Doctor
• 年：2005
• 导师：Weyant, Johnn P.
• 毕业院校：Stanford University
• 专业：Economics, Finance.;Engineering, Industrial.;Operations Research.
• ISBN：9780542287275
• CBH：3186425
• Country：USA
• 语种：English
• FileSize：3479600
• Pages：103

文摘

The theory of investment under uncertainty has many natural applications in management science (MS). However, existing models for investment planning under uncertainty employ discrete time analyses, or continuous time techniques to analyze one-shot investment problems. These models may be of only limited use to MS researchers because they lack the rich structure often found in MS decisions. This dissertation develops a new approach to the analysis of investments under uncertainty in repeated decision-making settings, using continuous time formulations and tools from stochastic calculus. The methodology captures the important features of investments in which firms may make decisions about whether to invest further in or suspend projects in each period until the projects are completed.;Strategic R&D investment under uncertainty in information technology: Tacit collusion and information time lag. This chapter analyzes research and development (R&D) investment competition in projects with a stochastic differential game model which takes technical and market uncertainty into consideration. In this model we define a collusion equilibrium which arises from the use of trigger strategies in cases where there is a lag in the flow of information regarding the R&D strategies being pursued by the competitor. We derive conditions under which a collusion equilibrium or a preemptive equilibrium can arise. An analysis of firms' equilibrium exercise policies provides a potential explanation for several otherwise puzzling observed innovation market phenomena. We also analyze the role of uncertainty on the likelihood of tacit collusion in R&D and discuss the implications of these strategic effects for antitrust and merger control policies.;Dynamic R&D project selection: The role of uncertainty and managerial flexibility. This chapter focuses on the problem of project selection under technical and market uncertainty. Specifically, the firm faces two options: an incremental innovation project and a radical innovation project. We examine how features of R&D projects such as a project's relative efficiency and future benefits affect R&D investment policy and valuation. We illustrate our model with an examination of the Hybrid Electric Car versus Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle R&D strategies pursued by General Motors and note the managerial implications of our analysis.