How Does Coldwave Frequency in China Respond to a Warming Climate?

详细信息    查看全文 | 下载全文 | 推荐本文 |

• 作者：Tingting MaZhiwei WuZhihong Jiang
• 会议时间：2013-10-23
• 作者单位：Tingting Ma,Zhihong Jiang(Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of InformationScience and Technology,Nanjing,China,210044)Zhiwei Wu(Meteorological Research Division,Environment Canada,Dorval,Quebec,Canada H9P 1J3)
• 母体文献：第30届中国气象学会年会论文集
• 会议名称：第30届中国气象学会年会
• 会议地点：南京
• 主办单位：中国气象学会
• 语种：chi

摘要

Under the background of a warming climate,regional climate responsesmay be different from place to place.How cold extreme events in China respond isstill an open question.This study investigates responses of coldwave frequency (CWF)in China from observation and modeling perspectives.Observational evidences showthat CWF significantly reduces across China during the warm period (1978-2009) incomparison with that during the cold period (1957-1977),concurrent with extremevalue centers located in northern China during 1957-1977and southern China during1978-2009.The Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) leading mode of CWF in thecold period is also dominant by an extreme value center prevailing over northernChina,while the center exhibits a southward shift in the warm period.Aseven-member multi-model ensemble (MME) from Coupled Model IntercomparisonProject#3(CMIP3) shows that southern China tends to experience more coldwavesthan northern China in the 21st century (2045-2064and 2080-2099) under the globalwarming A1B forcing (with atmospheric CO2concentration of 720ppm).This featurecan also be seen in the leading EOF mode of MME.These results indicate that theprimary response of CWF to a warming climate may be the southward shift of the maximum loading center.The enhanced western Pacific Subtropical High andweakened Siberian High during 1978-2009may result in anomalous southerlieswhich bring warm and wet air to southern China.Meanwhile cold and dry air istransported from the north via a “northwest pathway” to southern China.Under thejoint action of these two air masses,coldwaves may easily generate in southern Chinaas observed in recent extreme cold events in this region.