摘要
蔬菜价格的频繁波动常引起社会各界的广泛关注。基于武汉2014年1月1日至2017年6月30日的日降水量和16种主要蔬菜价格,利用GARCH(1,1)模型分析了异常降水对主要蔬菜价格的影响。研究发现:异常降水所导致的蔬菜价格变化不可一概而论,它不仅使得各类蔬菜的水平价格变化各异,而且对其价格波动也有不同影响。2016年6—7月的长时间异常降雨下,根茎类、甘蓝类蔬菜以及冬瓜价格变动不明显,而叶菜类、茄果类、瓜菜类蔬菜价格变动则相对较大。为了弱化异常天气的影响,在暴雨来临前,利用好根茎类蔬菜易周转、不易腐烂等特性确保极端天气下蔬菜的有效供应,同时注重叶菜类等价格变动较大蔬菜的外采、调运、收储,必要时可以采取"补贴限价"等手段进行调控。
Frequent fluctuations in vegetable prices have aroused widespread concern. Based on the the daily precipitation and 16 kinds of main vegetable prices from January 1,2014 to June 30,2017,this paper uses GARCH( 1,1) model to analyze the effect of abnormal precipitation on the main vegetable prices. This study finds out that the impact of abnormal precipitation on vegetable prices is different on the level and fluctuations of price. During the prolonged abnormal rain in June—July 2016,the price changes of root vegetable,cabbage vegetables are not obvious,while the price changes of leaf vegetables,solanaceous fruits and melons vegetables are relatively large. In order to weaken the impact of abnormal weather,before the rainstorm,root vegetables with the traits of easy turnover,non-perishable,etc. should be abundantly supplied to ensure the effective supply of vegetables in extreme weather. At the same time,it is important to increase the purchasing,allocation and transportation and storage of leafy and eggplant vegetables. If necessary,the "subsidy or price limit"and other means can be used to balance the market price of vegetables.
引文
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