摘要
基于CGSS2015相关数据和有序Logit模型,检验自我雇佣对农民社会流动预期的影响。实证研究结果发现,父辈学历、政治身份、机会公平感知等农民难以感知、难以触及因素对农民社会流动预期没有显著影响;自我雇佣、住房产权、原生家庭所属社会阶层等农民易感知、可触及因素则对农民社会流动预期有显著性影响。具体来看:相较于非自我雇佣者,自我雇佣者更可能向下流动;相较于非夫妻住房产权者,夫妻住房产权者更可能向上流动或平行流动;原生家庭所属社会阶层地位越高,农民更可能向上流动或平行流动。公共政策应立足于提高农民从事自我雇佣过程中的抵御市场风险能力,并致力于增加农民收入、改善农民生活条件。
The article uses data of Chinese General Social Survey 2015(CGSS2015) and adopts the Ordinal Logit Model to explore the effect of self-employment on peasants' social mobility. The quantitative findings are: the things that peasants are hard to perceive and touch, for example, father generation's education level, political identity and the perception of opportunity equity, have no effect on peasants' social mobility, while the more tangible things, such as self-employment, housing property and the social status of original family have significant influence on peasants' social mobility. To be more specific: Compared to the non-self-employed, the self-employed may have a higher probability to a downward mobility; Compared to those with no community housing property, those who have community housing property have a higher probability of upward or paralleled mobility; the higher the social status the original family belongs to, the higher probability of upward or a paralleled mobility the peasants may have. The future policy should focus on enhancing peasants' ability to withstand market risks in the process of self-employment, as well as increasing peasants' income and improving peasants' living conditions.
引文
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① 本文的农民指调查中应答是“农业户口”和“居民户口(以前是农业户口)”的群体。
(1)预期形成理论是经济学关注的焦点之一,他们主要关注通货膨胀、资产价格、GDP增长、就业率、企业投资预期利润等宏微观经济技术指标的形成机制,并形成了理性预期、适应性预期、学习型预期等预期形成机制相关理论。
(2)农业领域创业保险实际上在很多地方已经存在,只是存在机制不健全、监管落实不到位等问题。笔者最近在湖南衡阳市衡山县的调查中就发现当地种植业保险形同虚设,即使发生灾害,保险理赔也得不到执行。
