摘要
2018年以来,美国经济在减税政策刺激下实现了加速增长,全年有望创国际金融危机后的最快增速,但这一增速恐难以维持。随着减税政策对美国经济的刺激效应减弱,美联储持续加息削弱房地产、汽车以及企业投资增长动力,中期选举后国会掣肘增多,加之特朗普关税措施的负面影响显现,2019年美国经济增速将较2018年有所放缓。而且,从周期的角度,美国经济可能在未来两年内达到此轮扩张期的顶点,特朗普经济政策更将推动美国经济加速赶顶。
Since 2018,the US economy has achieved accelerated growth under the stimulus of tax cuts.It is expected to achieve the fastest growth rate after the international financial crisis,but this growth rate is difficult to maintain.As the tax cuts diminished stimulus effect to the US economy,the Fed continues to raise interest rates will weaken the growth momentum of real estate,auto and corporate investment.Congressional constraints increase after the mid-term elections,and the negative impact of Trump's tariff measures has emerged.US economic growth in 2019 will slow down compared to 2018.Moreover,from a cycle perspective,the US economy may reach the peak of this round of expansion in the next two years,and Trump's economic policy will push the US economy to reach the peak.
引文
(1)美国劳工部按照失业人数的统计范围将失业率划分为U1-U6六个层次,其中U3是官方公布的失业率,失业者的统计标准是无工作但在过去4周内积极寻找工作的求职者;U6不仅包括U3层面的失业者,而且包含了具备工作能力但近期没有寻找工作的、希望寻找全职工作的兼职劳工等覆盖面更为宽泛的失业人群。
