摘要
选用合理的干旱指数对干旱进行监测一直是干旱研究的难点之一,对不同指数的适用性进行研究可以为干旱监测提供一定的参考依据。基于1960—2017年福建省气象站的逐日气象观测数据,采用频率累积法对五种干旱指数的阈值进行修正,利用层次分析法计算不同等级干旱事件的权重,结合120个典型历史干旱事件,对降水距平百分率(P_a)、标准化降水指数(SPI)、标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)、相对湿润指数(MI)、改进综合气象干旱指数(CI_(new))在福建省的适用性进行了分析。结果表明:CI_(new)适用于春秋冬季和年际的干旱监测,MI适用于夏秋冬季的干旱监测,这两种指数对重旱和特旱事件的监测效果比较好,SPI和SPEI对中旱和轻旱事件的监测效果比较好。五种指数均能比较好地描述干旱的发展过程,CI_(new)的监测结果更贴合实际,并且较符合干旱发生的机制。因此CI_(new)在福建省的干旱监测中比较适用,MI次之。
Using reasonable drought index to monitor drought has always been one of the difficulties in drought research. The study of the applicability of different indices can provide a certain reference for drought monitoring. Based on the daily meteorological observation data of the Fujian provincial meteorological stations during 1960 — 2017, we compare the applicability of the percentage of precipitation anomalies(Pa), the standardized precipitation index(SPI), standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI),relative humidity index(MI) and improved comprehensive meteorological drought index(CI_(new))in Fujian Province with 120 typical historical drought events. Besides, we correct the thresholds of the five drought indices by using the frequency accumulation method and also calculate weights of drought events at different levels by Analytic Hierarchy Process. The results show that: CI_(new) is suitable for the monitoring of the spring, autumn, winter and annual droughts and MI is suitable for the monitoring of the summer,autumn and winter droughts. The two indices have better monitoring effect on severe drought and specially severe drought events. SPI and SPEI are suitable for moderate drought and light drought events. All the five indices can describe the development process of drought events. CI_(new) ' s monitoring results are more close to reality and more consistent with the mechanism of drought. Therefore, CI_(new) is more suitable for drought monitoring in Fujian Province, followed by MI.
引文
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