摘要
芒果是攀枝花的一个重要的优势农产品,生产关键阶段遭受低温霜冻、高温热害等气象灾害威胁大,从而制约攀枝花芒果产业发展。选用攀枝花市4县站近17年一致性较好的地面观测资料,结合当地芒果生产气象致灾指标,基于信息扩散理论分析模型,估算了攀枝花各县(区)芒果生长关键期不同气象致灾阀值出现的概率分布。结果表明:米易县芒果生产遭遇低温霜冻威胁最大,越冬期出现≥5天霜冻天气(日最低气温≤2℃)影响约为5年一遇,花期出现日最高气温≤15℃的不利影响可能性达60%;仁和区芒果花期出现高温致灾机率最大,开花期出现≥5天高温天气(日最高气温≥33℃)的影响约为2年一遇。攀枝花芒果花期处于干季,各地受阴雨天气影响小,少雨干旱可能制约挂果期生长。建议合理布局芒果生产,加强农业风险管控措施,研究开展攀枝花芒果气象灾害农业保险,为芒果生产风险转移奠定基础。
Mango is an important dominant agricultural product in Panzhihua. The key stage of production is threatened by meteorological disasters such as low temperature,frost and high temperature. So it restricts the development of mango industry in Panzhihua. Based on the observation data of 4 meteorological stations in Panzhihua in recent 17 years,combined with local mango production meteorological disaster index,and using information diffusion theory analysis model,we estimated the probability distribution of different meteorological disaster threshold values of mango growing period in Panzhihua counties. The results showed that: Miyi County mango production suffered frost the biggest threat,5 days frost weather over wintering period( daily lowest temperature 2℃) of about 5 years,florescence appear to adversely affect the daily maximum temperature is not higher than 15℃ the possibility of 60%. Renhe County mango flowering high disaster frequency is the largest,the flowering period is greater than or equal to 5 days the weather appeared high temperature( 33℃ or highe) of about 2 years. Panzhihua mango flowering in the dry season,the rainy weather around the small,little rain and drought may restrict the growth of fruiting period. It is suggested that rational layout of mango production,agricultural risk management and control measures should be strengthened to carry out mango meteorological disaster agricultural insurance in Panzhihua,so as to lay the foundation for the risk transfer of mango production.
引文
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