摘要
为把我国农村居民网购的问题由定性研究转向定量研究,先后建立二次曲线指数平滑模型、灰色GM(1,1)模型和基于二者的组合预测模型,并应用一种新方法确定了权重系数。结合2010-2017年我国农村居民网购支出的数据,利用SPSS等相关软件检验和运用所建立的三个模型,结果显示组合模型的预测数据更加稳定,最后对未来三年的农村居民网购支出数额进行了预测与分析,并对相关数据标准及规范的管理提出了建议。
In order to change the problem of online shopping of rural residents from qualitative research to quantitative research, a quadratic curve exponential smoothing model, a grey GM(1,1) model and a combined forecasting model based on the two are established, and a new method is used to determine the weight coefficient. Combining the data of online shopping expenditure of rural residents in China from 2010 to 2017, applying the three models established by the use and test of the relevant software such as SPSS, this paper finds out that the forecast data of the combined model is more stable. Finally, the author forecasts and analyzes the amount of online shopping expenditure of rural residents in the next three years, and puts forward some suggestions on the management of relevant data standards and norms.
引文
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(1) 本文数据来源于阿里研究院涉农基础数据及报告。
