摘要
利用1961—2014年中国东北地区200个气象站逐日降水资料以及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,研究了东北冷涡暴雨的气候特征,分析了低空急流、切变对冷涡暴雨的影响;诊断分析了可表征冷涡暴雨过程中水汽条件、动力条件、热力不稳定条件的比湿、水汽通量、水汽通量散度、散度、垂直速度、K指数等物理参数,研究了东北冷涡暴雨发生时上述各物理参数需要达到的阈值指标,利用研究的物理参数阈值指标以及低空急流和切变等配料因子构建了东北冷涡暴雨的"配料法"预报模型,结合ECMWF模式和T639模式数值预报产品将"配料法"暴雨预报模型进行了业务化应用试验及效果评估。结果表明,东北冷涡有66%会产生暴雨,冷涡暴雨多发生在7—8月;低空急流和切变对冷涡暴雨有触发作用,91.2%的冷涡暴雨发生时对流层低层存在急流或切变;基于"配料法"的冷涡暴雨预报TS评分比ECMWF模式和T639模式暴雨预报评分提高了7.4%和11.1%,且明显减少了暴雨的漏报率。
Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data of four times one day and the daily weather observation data with200 stations in the Northeast China from 1961 to 2014,this paper analysed the climatic characteristics of heavy rain that caused by northeast cold vortex,and the effects of low-level jet and shear on cold vortex heavy rain.Diagnosed and analyzed physical parameters such as specific humidity,water vapor flux,water vapor flux divergence,divergence,vertical velocity,and K index,which can characterize the conditions of water vapor,dynamic conditions,and thermal instability in the process of heavy rain caused by northeast cold vortex.It summarized the thresholds that need to be met for the above physical parameters in the heavy rain caused by northeast cold vortex.A forecasting model for the "ingredients method"of the heavy rain that caused by northeast cold vortex was constructed by using the ingredient factors of physical parameter threshold indicators and low-level jet and shear.Using the numerical prediction products which provided by ECWMF model and T639 model,the cold vortex heavy rain ingredient model was applied to daily forecast work.For the sake of examining the applicability of the ingredients method model,the quality of the heavy rain forecast was tested from 2015 to 2016,and the performance evaluation had been done. The results showthat there is 66% possibility of leading to heavy rain by the Northeast China cold vortex activities.The times of heavy rain caused by cold vortex were more in July and August than other months.The low-level jet and the shear at lower in tropospheric could trigger rainstorm,there were low-level jets or shears at 91. 2% of heavy rain caused by northeast cold vortex.The TS score by using "Ingredients method"on forecasting heavy rain caused by the Northeast China cold vortex is 7. 4% and 11. 1% higher than that of the ECMWF model and T639 model,which was greatly reduces the rate of missing reports on forecasting of heavy rain.Therefore,it has high practical application value and has great significance for disaster prevention and mitigation.
引文
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