摘要
皮纳卫星具有研制周期短、采用商用货架式器件的特点,无法完整沿用传统大卫星通过底层元器件或部组件搭建系统可靠性模型计算整星可靠性的方法。针对上述问题,提出了基于试验数据的皮纳卫星可靠性评估体系。通过对机理不同的硬件和软件故障分别建模的方法,实现了ZDPS-2卫星的可靠性评估。对卫星的硬件故障数,基于顺序约束模型和贝叶斯参数估计方法进行拟合,并考虑了不同试验环境对卫星工作环境的等效因子。ZDPS-2卫星硬件可靠性水平估计为3月末0.85。对卫星的软件故障采用加入变点的非齐次泊松过程模型拟合,并选择Logistic模型作为测试覆盖率模型。ZDPS-2卫星软件故障拟合结果,平均无故障时间为217h。ZDPS-2卫星试验结果证实,可靠性满足增长试验设计的要求和任务需求。
With the feature of a short development cycle,and the use of commercial shelf devices,picosatellites cannot follow the traditional reliability assessment for larger satellites which builds the system reliability model with components.The reliability assessment system of pico-satellites based on experimental data is proposed.The reliability assessment of ZDPS-2 satellites is realized by building different hardware and software failure models respectively.The model of hardware failures is based on the ordering constraint model and the Bayesian parameter estimation method,and the equivalent factor of the different experimental environment to the satellite working environment is considered.ZDPS-2 satellite hardware reliability level is estimated as 0.85 at the end of 3 months.The model of software failures is fitted with the non-homogeneous poisson process(NHPP)model with the change point.The logistic model is chosen as the test coverage model.According to ZDPS-2 satellite software failure results,the average time between failures is 217 h.The ZDPS-2 satellite test results confirm that the reliability meets the requirements for the growth test design and mission requirements.
引文
[1]LIM B.Small satellite developments[C]∥Proc.of the IEEE International GeoscienceandRemoteSensingSymposium(IGARSS),2016:5543-5545.
[2]DENG S C,MENG T,WANG H,et al.Flexible attitude control design and on-orbit performance of the ZDPS-2satellite[J].Acta Astronautica,2016,130:147-161.
[3]YANG M,WANG H,WU C J,et al.Space flight validation of design and engineering of the ZDPS-1Apico-satellite[J].Chinese Journal of Aeronautics,2012,25(5):725-738.
[4]XIANG T,MENG T,WANG H,et al.Design and on-orbit performance of the attitude determination and control system for the ZDPS-1Apico-satellite[J].Acta Astronautica,2012,77(8):182-196.
[5]DEEPAK R A,TWIGGS R J.Thinking out of the box:space science beyond the CubeSat[J].Journal of Small Satellites,2012,1(1):3-7.
[6]CROW L H.Estimation procedures for the Duane model[R].ADA 019 372.1972:32-44.
[7]WRONKA J C.Tracking of reliability growth in early development[C]∥Proc.of the Annual IEEE Reliability and Maintainability Symposium,1988:238-242.
[8]周源泉.确定电子产品MTBF增长的Bayes方法[J].电子学报,1983,2:40-44.ZHOU Y Q.A Bayesian approach to determining MTBF growth for electronic products[J].Acta Electronica Sinica,1983,2:40-44.
[9]周源泉,刘振德,陈宝延,等.指数分布阶段可靠性增长模型的Bayes融合[J].质量与可靠性,2006(2):14-18.ZHOU Y Q,LIU Z D,CHEN B Y,et al.Bayes fusion of exponential distribution stage reliability growth model[J].Quality and Reliability,2006(2):14-18.
[10]应新雅,张志华.基于新型顺序约束的产品可靠性评估方法研究[J].舰船电子工程,2013,33(11):98-101.YING X Y,ZHANG Z H.Research on sequential constraints based on a novel method to evaluate reliability of products[J].Ship Electronic Engineering,2013,33(11):98-101.
[11]应新雅,张志华.产品可靠性新型顺序约束及评估算法改进[J].系统工程与电子技术,2015,37(2):468-472.YING X Y,ZHANG Z H.Improvement on the new ordering constraints evaluation algorithm of product reliability[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2015,37(2):468-472.
[12]赵帅帅,陈永祥,贾业宁,等.基于修正Coffin-Manson模型的加速寿命试验设计与评估[J].强度与环境,2013,40(4):52-58.ZHAO S S,CHEN Y X,JIA Y N,et al.Design and assessment of accelerated life testing based on modified Coffin-Manson model[J].Structure&Environment Engineering,2013,40(4):52-58.
[13]HE X,FU J Y.Experimental evidence that electrical fatigue failure obeys a generalized Coffin-Manson law[J].Physics Letters A,2017,381(18):1598-1602.
[14]NATRELLA M.NIST/SEMATECH e-handbook of statistical methods[R].2010.
[15]ZHANG J,LU Y,YANG S,et al.NHPP-based software reliability model considering testing effort and multivariate fault detection rate[J].Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics,2016,27(1):260-270.
[16]WANG J,WU Z,SHU Y,et al.An optimized method for software reliability model based on nonhomogeneous Poisson process[J].Applied Mathematical Modelling,2016,40(13/14):6324-6339.
[17]李海峰,王栓奇,刘畅,等.考虑测试工作量与覆盖率的软件可靠性模型[J].软件学报,2013,24(4):749-760.LI H F,WANG S Q,LIU C,et al.Software reliability model considering both testing effort and testing coverage[J].Journal of Software,2013,24(4):749-760.
[18]WANG J,WU Z,SHU Y,et al.An imperfect software debugging model considering log-logistic distribution fault content function[J].Journal of Systems and Software,2015,100:167-181.
[19]LI Q,PHAM H.A testing-coverage software reliability model considering fault removal efficiency and error generation[J].PloS One,2017,12(7):e0181524.
[20]KIM K S,Kim H C.The performance analysis of the software reliability nhpp log-linear model depend on viewpoint of the learning effects[J].Indian Journal of Science and Technology,2016,9(37):1-6.
[21]JANCZAREK P,SOSNOWSKI J.Investigating software testing and maintenance reports:case study[J].Information and Software Technology,2015,58:272-288.
[22]KASWAN K S,CHOUDHARY S,SHARMA K.Software reliability modeling using soft computing techniques:critical review[J].International Journal of Information Technology and Computer Science,2015,7:90-101.
[23]HUANG C Y,LYU M R.Estimation and analysis of some generalized multiple change-point software reliability models[J].IEEE Trans.on Reliability,2011,60(2):498-514.
[24]TANDON A,AGGARWAL A G,NIJHAWAN N.An NHPP SRGM with change point and multiple releases:[J].International Journal of Information Systems in the Service Sector,2016,8(4):57-68.
[25]NIJHAWAN N,AGGARWAL A G.On development of change point based generalized SRGM for software with multiple releases[C]∥Proc.of the 4th International Conference on IEEE Infocom Technologies and Optimization(ICRITO)(Trends and Future Directions),2015:1-6.
[26]LI Z,MOBIN M,KEYSER T.Multi-objective and multistage reliability growth planning in early product-development stage[J].IEEE Trans.on Reliability,2016,65(2):769-781.
[27]NELSON W.Accelerated life testing-step-stress models and data analyses[J].IEEE Trans.on Reliability,1980,29(2):103-108.
[28]HUANG X,DENPRASERT P M,ZHOU L,et al.Accelerated life-test methods and results for implantable electronic devices with adhesive encapsulation[J].Biomedical Microdevices,2017,19(3):46.
[29]HAN D.Time and cost constrained optimal designs of constant-stress and step-stress accelerated life tests[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2015,140:1-14.
[30]席运洋,王魁.空空导弹测试覆盖性分析研究[C]∥航空试验测试技术学术交流会,2011.XI Y Y,WANG K.Research on test coverage analysis of air-to-air missile[C]∥Proc.of the Academic Symposium on Aeronautical Test Technology,2011:125-127.
