摘要
为应对气候变化,探讨气候变化背景下甘肃麦积区旱涝演变对果树生产的影响,趋利避害,有效促进果树的产业化发展。采用统计学、YAMAMOTO和累积距平等方法统计分析该区1979—2011年33年气温、降水的演变趋势特征。结果表明:麦积区33年来年平均气温、平均最高和最低气温均呈增加趋势,增幅分别为0.31、0.44和0.27℃/10 a,四季分布均以春、夏季最高气温升温幅度最大。年平均气温突变发生在1994年,突变前、后年平均气温相差0.7℃;年总降水量和降水日数均呈减少趋势,其中降水量倾向率为-7.29 mm/10 a,并以春季降水减少最为显著,倾向率为-7.3 mm/10 a,最高气温的迅速升高和降水量的锐减是气候变暖的主要原因。气候变暖后春、夏、秋3季干旱发生频率明显增加,秋季雨涝灾害略呈加重趋势,气候变暖一方面导致果树花芽膨大及盛花期均较变暖前提前5~7天,果实成熟期提前9~10天,花芽膨大至果实成熟期的果树产量形成期缩短4~5天;另一方面由于春季最高、最低气温上升的不同步性(最高气温上升速度明显大于最低气温),造成果树开花坐果期高温灼烧和霜冻冻害加重。盛夏7月降水量和秋季雨涝灾害发生频率的增加均不利于杏、桃等核果类和苹果、梨等仁果类果树果实着色成熟。
In order to cope with climate change,explore drought and flood evolution law under the backgroundof climate change and its effect on fruit tree production in Maijiqu,and effectively promote the industrializationof fruit tree production,by adopting statistic methods like YAMAMOTO and cumulative distance equality,theauthor carried out statistical analysis of evolution trend of air temperature and rainfall from 1979 to 2011.Theresults showed that the average temperature,the average maximum and minimum temperature increased in the33 a by 0.31,0.44 and 0.27℃/10 a,respectively,the temperature range of spring and summer was the largestin the four seasons.The mutation of annual average temperature occurred in 1994,the average temperatureincreased 0.7℃.Annual total precipitation and precipitation days all showed a trend of decrease,theprecipitation tendency was at a rate of-7.29 mm/10 a,and the spring precipitation reduced most significantly,and tended to be at a rate of-7.3 mm/10 a.The rapid rise of the highest temperature and the sharp decline ofrainfall were the main causes of climate warming.After climate warming,the frequency of drought increased in the spring,summer and autumn,the autumn rain waterlogging disasters slightly increased.Climate warming,on the one hand,caused the buds swelling and the warming premise advancing 5-7 d,fruit ripening advancing9-10 d,fruit tree yield formation reducing 4-5 d from the flower bud expanding to the fruit mature stage; onthe other hand,due to the asynchronism of the rise of maximum and minimum temperature in spring(thehighest temperature rise significantly greater than the lowest temperature),the high temperature calcinationand frost damage were aggravated in the flowering fruit-bearing stage of the fruit trees.The increases of rainfallin July and rain waterlogging disaster frequency were not conducive to coloring of apricot,peach,apple andpear.
引文
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