摘要
为准确量化纯电动公交车CO_2减排效果,更好地推动纯电动公交车在城市公交领域的推广应用,本文从能源链角度对纯电动公交车全生命周期的CO_2减排效果进行了研究.基于能源消耗数据,构建了基于能源链的纯电动公交车全生命周期CO_2排放模型;采用单因素敏感性分析法对排放模型的主要影响因素进行了分析,并基于此采用情景分析法建立了CO_2减排效果分析方法;通过实际案例及情景设置分析了现阶段及不同场景下纯电动公交车的CO_2减排效果.结果表明:在相同运营环境下,相比柴油公交车,纯电动公交车能源链全生命周期每百公里可以实现CO_2减排61.20%;在设定的不同情景下,2025年,2035年,2050年纯电动公交车的使用将分别实现每天CO_2减排134 712.36 t,253 566.80 t,326 323.74 t.
In order to accurately quantify the effect of CO_2 emission reduction of electric bus and promote the popularization and application of electric bus in the field of urban public transportation, this paper studies the CO_2 emission reduction effect of electric buses from the perspective of energy chain. Firstly, the CO_2 emission model of electric bus energy chain is constructed based on the data of energy consumption. Secondly, the main influencing factors of the emission model are analyzed by single factor sensitivity analysis, and the analysis method of CO_2 emission reduction is established based on the scenario analysis method. Finally, through actual cases and scenario settings, the CO_2 emission reduction effect of pure electric buses at different stages is analyzed. The results show that: the life cycle CO_2 emission of the electric bus energy chain is reduced by 61.20% under the same operating environment, compared to the diesel bus; under different scenarios, 134 712.36, 253 566.80, 326 323.74 tons of CO_2 emissions reduction per day are achieved respectively in 2025, 2035, 2050.
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