摘要
选用1951-2011年秦岭-淮河地区气象站点数据资料,研究年平均降水量和年平均气温的时空变化特征,探讨ENSO事件对旱涝灾害的影响.结果表明:①秦岭淮河地区淮河平原比秦巴山地的年平均降水量下降速率快,分别为-7.9 mm/10 a,-5.7 mm/10 a,淮河平原比秦巴山地的年平均气温上升速率快,分别为0.15℃/10 a,0.09℃/10 a;且年平均降水量在1980 s发生突变且呈现出下降的趋势,年平均气温在1960 s发生突变且呈现出上升的趋势;②El Nino事件导致降水减少,且在滞后3个月时最明显,其相关系数为-0.73;La Nina事件导致降水增多,且在滞后4个月时最明显,其相关系数为0.75;El Nino事件导致气温升高,且在滞后1个月时最明显,其相关系数为0.77;La Nina事件导致气温下降,且在滞后2个月时最明显,其相关系数为-0.67;③ENSO事件与旱涝灾害关系显著,有11次旱灾与El Nino事件同期发生,有8次涝灾与La Nina事件同期发生,且ENSO事件导致旱涝灾害程度更大,最严重时分别为极旱和极涝.
This article selects precipitation and temperature data in Qinling-Huaihe regions from 1951 to 2011 to study the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of precipitation and temperature, and discuss the impacts of ENSO events on drought and flood disasters. The results show that:①Precipitation shows the spatial distribution characteristics that the degree of change is higher in the east and lower in the west, and has undergone abrupt changes in the 1980 s and has shown an downward trend; Temperature shows the spatial distribution characteristics that the degree of change is lower in the east and higher in the west, and has undergone abrupt changes in the 1960 s and has shown an upward trend;②El Nino events caused a decrease in precipitation which was most pronounced at the time of lagging 3 months, with correlation of-0.73; La Nina events caused an increase in precipitation which was most pronounced at the time of lagging 4 months, with correlation of 0.75; El Nino events caused an increase in temperature which was most pronounced at the time of lagging 1 months, and its correlation is 0.77; La Nina events caused a decrease in temperature which was most pronounced at the time of lagging 2 months, and its correlation is-0.67.③ENSO events has a significant relationship with droughts and floods. El Nino events caused droughts more likely to happen and the most serious degree of disasters was 9 level. La Nina events caused floods more likely to happen and the most serious degree of disasters was 1 level.
引文
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