摘要
应用高空间分辨率的网格逐日气象数据,根据国家集中供暖有关设计规范定义了集中供暖气候指标,分析了气候变暖对中国集中供暖气候指标的影响。结果表明:近55 a来中国集中供暖初日均呈后延趋势,初日特征线年代际南北移动较小。供暖终日均呈提前趋势,终日特征线在110°E以东地区南北移动较大,2000年以来终日特征线较20世纪60年代北抬了200～300 km。供暖期长度均呈减少趋势,东北、华北地区近55 a减少了10～15 d,西北地区减少了15～20 d;东北、华北、西北地区供暖强度分别减少了12%、20%、15%。从1991～2015年冬季气温变化来看,东北地区最冷冬季与最暖冬季的温度相差可达6.2℃,对供暖强度的影响可达28.9%,华北和西北地区冬季气温最大变幅分别为3.7℃、3.3℃,对供暖强度的影响分别为26.8%和17.6%。气候变暖对中国集中供热气候指标产生了显著的影响。供热部门应该根据天气变化来安排供暖,同时还要注意气候变暖背景下极端冷事件的发生,保证集中供暖安全运行。
The IPCC fifth assessment report(AR5) showed that the global temperature tended to increase in future. Meanwhile, the range of warming in China is higher than that of the global average temperature. It is very significant that understanding the impact of climate change on central heating in China which can provide decision-making advice to supply heating, save energy and reduce air pollution during the supplying heating period. This paper firstly defined the climate index of central heating according to National Central Heating Design Specification, then analyzed the impact of climate warming on climate index of central heating in China based on daily grid meteorological data with high space resolution. The result showed that: 1) The beginning day of central heating tended to delay during the past 55 years in China. The decadal shift of the characteristic line for beginning day from south to north changed very little. 2) The final day of central heating tended to shift to an earlier date. The characteristic line of final day moved obviously from south to north in the east of110 oE which was 200-300 km higher than that in 1960 s since 2000. 3) The length of supplying heating period tended to shorten. The length decreased by 10-15 d in the Northeast and North China and that decreased by15-20 d in Northwest China. 4) The intensity of suppling heating tended to reduce obviously. The intensity decreased by 12%, 20% and 15% for Northeast, North and Northwest China respectively. The intensity was related to winter average temperature closely. According to the variation of winter temperature from 1991 to 2015,the temperature difference(TD) between the coldest and the warmest winter could reach 6.2℃ in Northeast China which accounted for 28.9% impact on intensity of supplying heating; the TD was 3.7℃ and 3.3℃ for North and Northwest China respectively, which accounted for 26.8% and 17.6% impact on the intensity respectively. Climate warming has a significant impact on the climate index of central heating in China. The relative departments should arrange the supplying heating schedule according to weather variation, meanwhile, pay attention to the occurrence of extreme cold events under the background of climate warming to ensure the central heating operate safely.
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