摘要
二战后,大批第三世界国家走向独立,然而经历过战争阴影的人类依然深受内战之苦,这在新独立国家中尤为突出。在全球化背景下,中国与国际安全体系的联系越来越紧密,随着在亚太体系和世界体系中政治地位的提升,中国逐步承担起协调区域安全甚至是全球稳定的政治大国角色。为了更好地应对国际和区域的不稳定因素,有必要对内战进行学理层面的理解。通过对1995年到2014年间关于内战的研究进行梳理和分析,笔者总结了国内外共十大类135个解释因素,这些因素构成了目前内战研究的基本图景;同时也从方法论角度指出了当前研究中共识性解释因素较少的问题。基于内战现象的特点和对现有实证研究方法的检讨,笔者提出了包括纠正测量层次偏差、更好结合理论和案例研究,以及深入挖掘内战中不同维度的异质性,这三方面的方法论改进,以实现从因素出发、超越因素,解读内战因果机制的目标,以实现在政策层面上有的放矢,更好地评估和降低内战风险。
引文
[1]塞缪尔·亨廷顿.变化社会的政治秩序[M].张岱云,译.上海:上海译文出版社,1988.
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[3]方金英.叙利亚内战的根源及其前景[J].现代国际关系,2013(6).
[4]杨思灵.内战结束后斯里兰卡的僧泰冲突[J].南亚研究季刊,2012(3).
[5]樊小红.黎巴嫩内战后什叶派的政治发展[J].国际论坛,2009(1).
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[7]Barbieri,Katherine,and Rafael Reuveny.Economic Globalization and Civil War[J].The Journal of Politics,2005,7(4).
[8]Bates,Robert.When Things Fell Apart[M].Cambridge University Press,2015.
[9]Boix,Carles.Economic Roots of Civil Wars and Revolutions in the Contemporary World[J].World Politics,2008,60(3).
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(2)[美]塞缪尔·亨廷顿.变化社会的政治秩序[M].张岱云译,上海:上海译文出版社,1988.
(1)Pettersson T,Eck K.Organized violence,1989-2017[J].Journal of Peace Research,2018,55(4):547.
(2)Stathis N Kalyvas.Civil Wars[C]//Carles Boix and Susan C Stokes eds.The Oxford Handbooks of Comparative Politics.Oxford University Press,2007:417.
(3)参见方金英.叙利亚内战的根源及其前景[J].现代国际关系,2013(6):14-20;姜恒昆.苏丹内战中的宗教因素[J].西亚非洲,2004(4):34-40,79;邢广程.乌克兰内战与大国博弈[J].欧洲研究,2014(6):11-15;樊小红.黎巴嫩内战后什叶派的政治发展[J].国际论坛,2009(1):18-22,79-80;杨思灵.内战结束后斯里兰卡的僧泰冲突[J].南亚研究季刊,2012(3):27-32,40.
(1)Singer J David and Melvin Small.Resort to Arms:International and Civil War,1816-1980[M].CA:Sage,1982:210.
(2)Elbadawi E,Sambanis N.Why Are There So Many Civil Wars in Africa?Understanding and Preventing Violent Conflict[J].Journal of African Economies,2000,9(3):244-269.
(3)James Fearon.Why Do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer Than Others[J].Journal of Peace Research,2004,41(3):279.
(1)Paul Collier,Anke Hoeffler,and Mans Soderbom.On the Duration of Civil War[J].Journal of Peace Research,2004,41(3):257.
(2)根据2017版学术期刊引注报告(Journal Citation Reports),《冲突解决期刊》在政治学和国际关系类别分别排名第8和第5位,《和平研究期刊》的排名则分别为第32和第14位。
(3)前两类与定量研究有一定的重叠。
(1)135篇定量研究按照主要分析议题,研究内战爆发的为68篇,内战持续时间的为20篇,内战严重程度的为2篇,内战终结以及后果的有23篇,剩下22篇为与内战相关的其他议题。
(1)Clayton Thyne.Cheap Signals with Costly Consequences:The Effect of Interstate Relations on Civil War[J].Journal of Conflict Resolution,2006,50(6):937-961.
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(2)Lischer,Sarah Kenyon.Catalysts of Conflict:How Refugee Crises Lead to the Spread of Civil War[D].Unpublished doctoral dissertation,2002,Cambridge,MA:Department of Political Science,Massachusetts Institute of Technology;Salehyan,Idean,and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch.Refugee and the Spread of Civil War[J].International Organization,2006,60(2):335-366.
(3)Paul Collier,Anke Hoeffler,and Dominic Rohner.Beyond Greed and Grievance:Feasibility and Civil War[J].Oxford Economic Papers,2009,61(1):1-27.
(4)Lange,Matthew,and Andrew Dawson.Dividing and ruling the world?A Statistical Test of the Effects of Colonialism on Postcolonial Civil Violence[J].Social Forces,2009,88(2):785-817.
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(2)Cederman L E,Wimmer A,Min B.Why do ethnic groups rebel?New data and analysis[J].World Politics,2010,62(1):87-119.
(3)Lange,Matthew,and Andrew Dawson.Dividing and Ruling the World?A Statistical Test of the Effects of Colonialism on Postcolonial Civil Violence[J].Social Forces,2009,88(2):785-817.
(4)Cunningham,Kathleen Gallagher.Actor fragmentation and civil war bargaining:How internal divisions generate civil conflict[J].American Journal of Political Science,2013,57(3):659-672;Cameron Thies.Of Rulers,Rebels,and Revenue:State Capacity,Civil War Onset,and Primary Commodities[J].Journal of Peace Research,2010,47(3):321-332.
(1)Hegre,Havard,Tanja Ellingsen,Scott Gates,and Nils Petter Gleditsch.Towards a Democratic Civil Peace?Democracy,Political Change,and Civil War,1816-1992[J].American Political Science Review,2001,95(1):17-33;Melander,Erik.Gender Equality and Intrastate Armed Conflict[J].International Studies Quarterly,2009,49(4):695-714;Smith,Benjamin.Oil Wealth and Regime Survival in the Developing World,1960-1999[J].American Journal of Political Science,2004,48(2):232-246;Barbieri,Katherine,and Rafael Reuveny.Economic Globalization and Civil War[J].The Journal of Politics,2005,67(4):12,28-47.
(2)Collier P,Hoeffler A.Greed and grievance in civil war[J].Oxford Economic Papers,2004,(4):563-595;Fearon,James D,and David D Laitin.Ethnicity,Insurgency,and Civil War[J].American Political Science Review,2003,91(1):75-98;Lujala,Pa¨ivi,Nils Petter Gleditsch,and Elisabeth Gilmore.A Diamond Curse?Civil War and a Lootable Resource[J].Journal of Conflict Resolution,2004,49(4):538-562;Regan,Patrick M,and Daniel Norton.Greed,Grievance,and Mobilization in Civil Wars[J].Journal of Conflict Resolution,2005,49(3):319-336;Ross,Michael L.A Closer Look at Oil,Diamonds,and Civil War[J].Annual Review of Political Science 9:265-300;Suzuki,Susumu.Major Arms Imports and the Onset of Civil and Ethnic Wars in the Postcolonial World,1956-1998:A Preliminary Reassessment[J].Social Science Journal,2007,44(1):99-111;Thyne,Clayton J.ABC’s,123’s,and the Golden Rule:The Pacifying Effect of Education on Civil War,1980-1999[J].International Studies Quarterly,2006,50(4):733-754;de Soysa,Indra,and Hanne Fjelde.Is the Hidden Hand an Iron Fist?Capitalism and Civil Peace,1970-2005[J].Journal of Peace Research,2010,47(3):287-298;Savun,Burcu,and Daniel C Tirone.Foreign Aid,Democratization,and Civil Conflict:How Does Democracy Aid Affect Civil Conflict[J].American Journal of Political Science,2011,55(2):2,33-46.
(1)Paul Collier,Anker Hoeffler.On Economic Causes of Civil War[J].Oxford Economic Papers,1998,50(4):563-573.也考虑了收入水平反应同时也反映一个国家的税基,但他们认为税基对于内战风险的影响应该是非线性的,而机会成本则应是线性的,该分析结果中收入的平方项并不显著,因而认为收入所代表的主要是线性的机会成本。
(2)James Fearon,David Laitin.Ethnicity,Insurgency,and Civil War[J].American Political Science Review,2003,97(1):75-90.
(3)Carles Boix.Economic Roots of Civil Wars and Revolutions in the Contemporary World[J].World Politics,2008,60(3):390-437.
(4)Stathis Kalyvas.The Logic of Violence in Civil War[M].Cambridge University Press,2006:39.
(1)James Scott.The Art of Not Being Governed:An Anarchist History of Upland Southeast Asia[M].Yale University Press,2009:IX-9.
(2)Peter Hedstr9m.Studying mechanisms to strengthen causal inferences in quantitative research[A].//Janet M Box-Steffensmeier,Henry E Brady and David Collier eds.The Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology[C].Oxford University Press,2008:319-335.
(1)左才.政治学研究方法的权衡与发展[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2017:28.
(2)一些以国别为分析单位的研究中将收入不平等作为控制变量,但采用的是个人或是家庭收入的基尼系数为测量,难以反映群体之间的差异。近年来越来越多的研究关注群体之间的不平等,将其与个体层面的基尼系数相区别,提出横向不平等(horizontal inequality)的概念。详见Barron,Patrick,Kai Kaiser,and Menno Pradhan.Understanding Variations in Local Conflict:Evidence and Implications from Indonesia[J].World Development,2009,37(3):698-713;stby,Gudrun.Polarization,Horizontal Inequalities and Violent Civil Conflict[J].Journal of Peace Research,2008,45(2):143-162;Cederman,Lars-Eric,Kristian Gleditsch,and Nils Weidmann.Horizontal Inequalities and Ethno-nationalist Civil War:A Global Comparison[J].American Political Science Review,2011,105(3):478-495.
(1)Buhaug,Halvard,and Jan Ketil Rd.Local Determinants of African Civil Wars,1970-2001[J].Political Geography,2006,25(3):315-335.
(2)Cederman,Lars-Erik,Halvard Buhaug,and Jan Ketil Rd.Ethno-nationalist dyads and civil war:A GIS-based analysis[J].The Journal of Conflict Resolution,2009,53(3):496-525.
(3)Cederman,Lars-Erik,Luc Girardin,and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch.Ethnonationalist triads:Assessing the Influence of Kin Groups on Civil Wars[J].World Politics,2009,61(3):403-437.
(4)Paul Collier,and Anke Hoeffler.On Economic Causes of Civil War[J].Oxford Economic Papers,1998,50(4):563-573;Paul Collier,Anke Hoeffler,and Dominic Rohner.Beyond Greed and Grievance:Feasibility and Civil war[J].Oxford Economic Papers,2009,61(1):1-27.
(1)James Fearon.Primary Commodity Exports and Civil War[J].Journal of conflict Resolution,2005,49(4):483-507.
(2)Michael Ross.How Do Natural Resources Influence Civil War?Evidence from Thirteen Cases[J].International organization,2004,58(1):35-67.罗斯指出在所有13个案例中都没有发现反叛组织利用资源来筹备反叛行为,也没有证据显示土地攫取、环境破坏、工作机会不足或是劳动力迁徙会引发非分离主义的冲突。
(3)Mahmood Mamdani.African States,Citizenship and War:A Case-Study[J].International Affairs,2002,78(3):493-506.
(4)Eckhardt I.The Guatemalan Civil War:The Bipolarisation of an Internal Conflict.Central European Review of International Affairs,2005(25):23.
(5)Deng,Luka Biong.Social Capital and Civil War:The Dinka communities in Sudan’s Civil War[J].African Affairs,2010,109(453):231-250.
(6)Englebert,Pierre,and James Ron.Primary Commodities and War:Congo-Brazzaville’s Ambivalent Resource Curse[J].Comparative Politics,2004,37(1):61-81.
(1)Korf,Benedikt.Rethinking the Greed-Grievance Nexus:Property Rights and the Political Economy of War in Sri Lanka[J].Journal of Peace Research,2005,42(2):201-217.
(2)在因果推论时,并非所有研究问题都符合单位同质性、因果同质性或是同效应假设,换句话说,并非所有案例的结果都是循着同一个因果模型发生的,因而要注意不同条件下,不同因果模型的适用性。详见Rethinking Social Inquiry:Diverse Tools,Shared Standards[M].Rowman&Littlefield Publishers,2010:41.
(3)Stathis Kalyvas.The Logic of Violence in Civil War[M].Cambridge University Press,2006.
(1)Korf,Benedikt.Rethinking the Greed-Grievance Nexus:Property Rights and the Political Economy of War in Sri Lanka[J].Journal of Peace Research,2005,42(2):201-217.
(2)Robert Bates.When Things Fell Apart[M].Cambridge University Press,2015.
(3)Andreas Wimmer,Brian Min.From Empire to Nation-State:Explaining Wars in the Modern World,1816-2001[J].American Sociological Review,2006,71(6):867-897.
(4)Krause,Volker,and Susumu Suzuki.Causes of Civil war in Asia and Sub-Saharanafrica:AComparison[J].Social Science Quarterly,2005,86(1):160-77;stby,Gudrun,Ragnhild Nords,and Jan Ketil Rd.Regional Inequalities and Civil Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa[J].International Studies Quarterly,2009,53(2):301-324;Thies,Cameron G.Conflict,Geography,and Natural Resources:The Political Economy of State Predation in Africa[J].Polity,2009,41(4):465-488;Brückner,Markus,and Antonio Ciccone.International Commodity Prices,Growth and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa[J].The Economic Journal,2010,120(544):519-534;Devitt,Conor,and Richard S J Tol.Civil war,Climate Change,and Development:A Scenario Study for Sub-Saharan Africa[J].Journal of Peace Research,2012,49(1):129-145;Hendrix,Cullen S,and Idean Salehyan.Climate Change,Rainfall,and Social Conflict in Africa[J].Journal of Peace Research,Vol.49,No.1,2012,49(1):35-50;Srli,Mirjam E.,Nils Petter Gleditsch,and Hvard Strand.Why Is There So Much Conflict in the Middle East[J].The Journal of Conflict Resolution,2005,49(1):141-165.
(1)Srli,Mirjam E,Nils Petter Gleditsch,and Hvard Strand.Why Is There So Much Conflict in the Middle East[J].The Journal of Conflict Resolution,2005,49(1):141-65.
(2)Krause,Volker,and Susumu Suzuki.Causes of Civil War in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa:Acomparison[J].Social Science Quarterly,2005,86(1):160-177.
(3)Nicholas Sambanis.Do Ethnic and Nonethnic Civil Wars Have the Same Causes?A Theoretical and Empirical Inquiry(Part I)[J].Journal of Conflict Resolution,2001,45(3):259-282.
(4)Buhaug H.Relative Capability and Rebel Objective in Civil War[J].Journal of Peace Research,2006,43(6):691-708.
(5)Chirs Coulter.Female Fighters in the Sierra Leone War:Challenging the Assumptions[J].Feminist Review,2008(88):54-73.
(6)Fotini Christia.Following the Money:Muslim versus Muslim in Bosnia’s Civil War[J].Comparative Politics,2008,40(4):461-480.
(7)Maja Povrzanovi c'Frykman.The Forgotten Majority on Civilians’War Experiences[J].EthnologieFran9aise,2008,38(2):315-324.
(1)Stephen Shellman,Clare Hatfield,and Maggie J Mills.Disaggregating Actors in International Conflict[J].Journal of Peace Research,2010,47(1):83-90.
