摘要
进入21世纪以来,我国水资源形势日益严峻,水资源管理如何平衡经济社会需水和生态环境需水的要求,支持经济社会可持续发展,是当今水资源研究领域的热点问题。论文以汉江流域最严格水资源管理为背景,基于水资源演变规律分析和长期需水预测结果,系统深入地研究汉江流域多目标水资源优化配置问题和面向生态的丹江口水库调度控制问题,为实施流域水资源统一配置、调度、管理、保护提供决策依据。论文分6章,主要内容概括如下：
第一章阐述了最严格水资源管理制度下用水总量控制要求,分析了用水总量控制研究内容,对水资源需求预测、水资源配置和水资源调度的研究现状、存在问题及其发展趋势进行了评述,提出了本文的研究内容。
第二章针对长期需水预测样本点少、影响因素作用强的特点,建立了需水预测的BP网络模型、RBF网络模型和最小二乘支持向量机模型；比较分析了灰色GM(1,1)模型、BP网络模型、RBF网络模型、最小二乘支持向量机模型和多元线性回归方法的精度和适应性,并应用等维信息技术以提高预测精度；为减少需水预测的不确定性,提出了长期需水预测的组合方法和综合集成思路。
第三章探讨了流域可分配水量与水资源可利用量关系,比较了倒算法和正算法的汉江流域水资源可利用量估算结果；基于汉江流域用水总量分配要求,建立了基于断面控制的汉江流域水资源分配模拟模型；应用所建立的模型计算了汉江流域水资源可利用量,确定了各控制断面水量分配指标。为流域水资源配置提供基础数据。
第四章按照最严格水资源管理要求,以重要城市断面、省界断面、水利工程断面、河流生态断面等为控制断面,对汉江流域水资源系统进行概化,将汉江流域划分为28个子区；以月为时段,以子区河道外需水过程和断面下泄流量过程为基础,建立了汉江流域水资源多目标优化配置模型；模型的3个目标是流域地区生产总值最大、经济社会缺水量最小和生态缺水最小,采用NSGA-II算法进行求解；
第五章针对丹江口水库下游断面生态流量保障要求,提出了设置生态库容的思想,阐述了生态库容的涵义,提出了生态库容的划分原理和生态库容的调度规则；考虑汉江中下游水量补给关系,建立了优化生态库容的多目标决策模型,采用优化—模拟相结合技术进行求解。并对多组生态库容的调度规则进行了比较分析。
第六章总结全文,指出了研究工作中存在的问题,并对下一步的研究工作进行了展望。
Since twenty-first Century, water resources situation in Chinais increasingly serious, through water resources management how to balance these water demands of economic and social development and ecological environment, to support sustainable economic and social development, is a hot issue in the field of water resources research. Taking the most strict water resources management in Hanjiang River Basinas the background, the dissertationdeeply exploresthe multi-objective optimal allocation of water resourcesin Hanjiang River basin and the oriented-ecological operation of Danjiangkou reservoir.The study results will provide a reference for the implementation of River Basin water resources unified allocation, scheduling, management and protection. The dissertation is divided into6chapters.The main contents are as follows:
The first chapter discussed the water volume control requirements in the most strict water resources management system.The present researchsituation, existing problems and trends inthe water demand prediction, water resources allocation and water resourcesscheduling were discussed.
In the second chapter, for the small sample and complex factorsof long-term water demand prediction, BP network, RBF network and least squares support vector machine model were established. A comparative analysis of the grey GM (1,1) model, BP network model, RBF network model, the least squares support vector machine model and multiple linear regression method were maded from the accuracy and the adaptability.A new time series called equal dimension and newinformation serieswas applied to improve the prediction precision. The combination method of waterdemand prediction was put forward in order to reduce water demand prediction uncertainty.
In the third chapter,the relationof the distribution quantityand available quantity of basin water resources was discussed. The results of water available quantityin Hanjiang River Basin by the consumption coefficient method and the reverse deduction method respectively, were compared.In accordance with the control requirement of water available quantity, the simulation model of water resource allocation based onthe control sections of Hanjiang River Basin was established. By using the established model, the amount of resources available in Hanjiang River Basin was calculated. The distribution quantity of eachcontrol section was determined at the same time.
In the fourth chapter, according to the most strict water resources management requirements, the important city section, provincial section, water conservancy engineering section, river ecological section were selected as control sections. The Hanjiang River Basin was divided into28subareas. The economic objective was to maximize the GDP of the Basin, The socialobjective and the ecological objectivewere to minimize the economic water shortage and the ecological water shortage,respectively.A multi-objective optimal allocation model of water resources in the Hanjiang River Basin was established. Given the water demand processes outside river of each subarea and the ecological discharge processes in each section, the was solved with NSGA-II algorithm.
In the fifth chapter,in view of the Danjiangkou reservoir downstream ecological flow requirement, the idea of setting up the ecological storagewassuggested.The meaning and the scheduling rule of ecological storage were explored.Tennant Method was used to calculate reference values of ecological flow in Xiangyang and Xiantao, two control sections downstream Danjiangkou. Then an optimization model for ecological storage were established based on an integrated consideration of the reservoir's multi-function, including flood control, ecological water demand, water supply, water transfer, power generation and navigation. Finally, solutions were obtained by integrating Adaptive Genetic Algorithm (AGA) with scheduling simulation technology under the background of four operation rules respectively.
The sixth chapter summarized the full text, pointed out the existing problems in the research workand the next research work was prospected.
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