摘要
我国各大中城市住宅市场价格高涨,一直是社会各界关注的焦点。住宅市场是区域性市场,各市场之间具有明显的异质性,但并不排斥各市场在空间上发生关联。研究区域性住宅市场之间价格传导,对城市政府实施差异化住宅市场调控政策,提高政府干预住宅市场效率具有重要意义。
本文选择珠三角9座城市作为研究对象,第一章、第二章主要分析了各城市住宅价格变化的周期性特征,为珠三角九个城市“极点”划分提供了理论依据。第三章、第四章运用计量经济学模型分析了珠三角“极点”城市内部及之间的住宅价格传导路径。第五章、第六章从城市住宅市场空间异系数、房价领先／滞后因素等方面分析了“极点”城市,“极点”与“极点”城市之间住宅价格传导的机理。第七章从实证结果出发提出了多项政策建议。第八章结论与展望。
本文实证研究的主要结论有：
(1)珠三角9个城市住宅价格存在着明显的价格周期,价格变化频率快,各城市之间价格变化的领先／滞后关系明显；
(2)珠三角单个城市内部住宅价格的运行具有稳定的长期关系,城市内“核心城区”的住宅价格对其它城区住宅价格存在着显著的传导关系。从总体上看,城市住宅价格空间互动关系符合住宅价格由城市中心向其周边区域扩散的规律。从长期来看,城市内各区域住宅市场之间彼此融合,各区域子市场住宅价格的变化均受到相邻区域住宅价格变化的影响；
(3)珠三角各单个城市及整个珠三角区域存在着明显的住宅价格趋同现象,就整个珠三角而言,则存在着以广州市为中心的价格趋同现象；
(4)珠三角各“极点”城市住宅价格的运行具有稳定的长期关系；
(5)城市区域住宅子市场的空间异质性,表明了城市住宅市场在空间上具有结构差异性,而这种结构差异性会引发住宅价格在空间上产生传导现象。
第一,城市住宅供给弹性系数低,容易导致住宅价格出现更为严重的波动,从而引发住宅价格传导现象发生。
第二,城市住宅供给弹性系数低,住宅价格会产生价格的“溢出效应”,在空间上形成价格传导的现象；
(6)GDP与住宅价格、城市人口(POP)与住宅价格之间存在单向的因果关系,GDP、城市人口(POP)是住宅价格的Granger原因,GDP、城市人口(POP)的变化会引起住宅价格的变化。GDP、城市人口(POP)的领先／滞后变化会引起了住宅价格的空间传导。
The housing market is the one of most volatile sectors of Chinese economy and the rapid raise in housing prices has attracted increasingly attentions, especially the housing prices diffusion within cities. The housing market is a regional market. These markets have the obvious heterogeneity, but not exclude the spatial interaction. Discussing the housing price diffusion among regional markets, would be helpful to carry out regulation with different policies and improve the efficiency of government intervention on the housing market.
Section 1 and Section 2 analyze the price cycles of housing among nine cities in the Pearl Delta, which provides theory basis for division of "pole" city. In Section 3 and Section 4, by employing econometrics technique, positive study has been carried to examine the housing price diffusion within the internal city and inter-city. In Section 5 and Section 6, the diffusion mechanisms of housing price among the "pole" cities are examined from the views of spatial coefficient heterogeneity and the lead/lags in the determinants of housing price. Based on the positive research,In section 7,propose some policy recommendations.In section 8,Findings and perspectives.
Main conclusions of positive research include:
(1) Obviously, the housing price of nine cities in the Pearl Delta exist price cycles with high frequencies and significant lead/lag relationships.
(2) Price change of housing of a single city in the Pearl Delta remains relevant stable, the "core district" of individual provides significant price diffusion on other distracts. In the long run, the housing sub-markets are influenced by the adjacent areas. In general, the housing prices diffusion pattern is coincident with Oikarinen's finding, which housing price diffuses first from the regional centers and then to peripheral regions surrounding them.
(3) The internal city and inter-city of the Pearl Delta regions exhibit regional housing price convergence, which follows Guangzhou's changing.
(4) The housing prices are engaged in long-run equilibrium relationships with each "pole" city.
(5) The spatial coefficient heterogeneity of housing sub-markets causes obvious structural differences, which trigger the spatial diffusion of housing price. On the one hand, the low housing supply elasticity will cause the housing price fluctuation and the spatial diffusion. On the other hand, the low housing demand elasticity will produce "spillover effect" of housing price and the spatial diffusion.
(6) The Granger causal tests of panel data indicate that there are two causal relationships which are unilateral:GDP to housing price and urban population to housing price. GDP and urban population Granger causes the housing price. The lead/lag changing of GDP and urban population will cause the spatial diffusion of housing price.
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