摘要
近年来,复杂网络理论的研究方兴未艾,正渗透到数理学科、生命学科和工程学科等众多不同的领域,由于其与现实世界的紧密联系以及鲜明的跨学科特征,复杂网络理论已经成为21世纪最具影响力的新兴研究热点之一。产业网络,一种复杂的社会网络系统,是产业经济学领域的前沿问题,但是由于研究起步较晚,所以尚未形成完整而成熟的理论体系。产业网络自身所具备的系统复杂性使得将复杂网络视角引入到产业网络的研究中成为可能,复杂网络科学而丰富的理论体系能够为产业网络的系统性分析提供有效的理论承托与支持。
汽车产业的战略地位不仅体现在对一国国民经济的拉动之上,更体现为其所具有的强大产业联动效应和高新技术吸附性,沈阳是辽宁省汽车产业发展的核心力量,汽车产业也是沈阳未来发展的第一支柱产业,但是在金融危机和发展相对滞后的复杂背景下,沈阳汽车产业如何抓住发展契机,不断提升产业竞争力,加速产业振兴和发展是一个重要而紧迫的研究命题。汽车产业的产业特性决定其产业组织必将向网络化趋势发展,所以在产业组织SCP范式和网络三要素理论的基础上,构建了复杂网络视角下的产业网络的“AARS”分析框架,即主体(Actors)—行为(Activities)—资源(Resources)—安全(Securities)的分析体系,并将其应用到沈阳汽车产业的实证研究之中。
针对产业网络AARS分析范式提出的“四个层面”和“五个问题”,科学而针对性地选取了复杂网络中的相关理论,比如运用复杂网络的统计特性对产业网络的密度和节点影响力进行研究;利用复杂网络社团结构对产业网络主体的行为进行研究;运用复杂网络传播动力学的思想对产业网络的资源进行了研究;运用复杂网络的鲁棒性和脆弱性理论对产业网络的安全进行了研究。最后,以“AA-R-S”为逻辑思路,构建了包括二十四种产业网络模式的动态分类体系,同时利用复杂网络的动力学理论,对基于AARS范式的产业网络演化机制进行了研究,并提出了演化的经济学模型,在此基础上对沈阳汽车产业网络模式的动态演化路径进行了预测。通过层层深入的理论探讨和实证研究,得到的主要创新性论断包括:
(1)沈阳汽车产业网络的密度处于较低水平,这主要体现在“产业网络宏观密度”和“产业网络微观密度”两个层面。这说明,沈阳汽车企业之间的合作程度不够,网络关系比较松散,尚未形成合力;同时,包括政府、教育和科研机构、中介组织以及金融机构在内的产业生态主体对汽车企业提供的外部支持不足,良好的产业共生关系还亟待发展。
(2)沈阳汽车产业网络存在一批“集线器企业”,包括,汽配市场、华晨金杯、金杯车辆、一汽和沈阳航天三菱发动机等,尤其是汽配市场,节点度是最高的,对沈阳汽车产业网络的影响力最强。所以针对当前存在的“是否应该限制汽配市场发展”的争论,提出了明确的态度,即汽配市场是适合当前经济发展水平和汽车市场需求的,有着不可替代的作用,应该放松对汽配市场的行业管制,降低门槛,提供方便。
(3)通过度分布判定和比较判定得出结论,沈阳汽车产业网络的拓扑结构最趋近于“BA(m=2)无标度网络”,这种网络拓扑模型具备的两个显著特征就是:增长性和择优性。增长性,即沈阳汽车产业网络的规模将随着产业网络的不断进化而不断扩大;择优性,即表现为那些有具有网络影响力的汽车企业将进入一种正反馈的发展通道中,拥有更多的资源和网络控制力,就是所谓“贫者越贫、富者越富”的马太效应。
(4)沈阳汽车产业网络可以聚类为四个社团结构:零部件企业社团、整车企业社团、发动机企业社团和汽配市场社团。通过“群内”、“群间”和“网络间行为”分析,可以发现:沈阳汽车零部件企业的发展“散”、“乱”、“弱”,产品附加值低,市场竞争力较差,除了掌握先进技术的发动机中外合资企业外,大部分本土化的零部件企业地位比较低,在网络中处于依附整车企业存在的附属地位;整车企业在沈阳汽车产业网络中处于“领导地位”,拥有众多网络资源,但是自主研发能力不强,产品交叉比较严重;沈阳目前尚未形成和谐的“整零关系”,本土零部件企业的弱小成为制约自主品牌汽车发展的瓶颈;沈阳市专用车企业虽然拥有较高的“市内配套率”,在沈阳汽车产业网络中拥有一定的影响力,但是彼此之间缺少合作,难以形成合力,民营企业为主的“小作坊”式生产模式更阻碍了专用车高端产品的开发,技术研发能力不强;汽配市场在沈阳汽车产业发展中的重要作用不容忽视,要大力推动沈阳汽配市场承担汽配流通领域的主要服务渠道作用和责任。
(5)沈阳汽车产业资源传播效率的临界值λ=0.0634,由此可以得出结论:沈阳汽车产业网络虽然存在资源的传播与扩散,但是传播效率不高。通过对“整体度增量”和“局部度增量”的策略采用效果的比较,循序渐进地采用“局部度提升——整体度提升”的螺旋发展式策略是提升沈阳汽车产业网络资源传播效率的有效路径,而且这个结论是符合网络化组织发展进程的。
(6)针对全球化背景下产业安全的争论问题,本文提出,对于汽车这种具有重要战略作用的关键产业,未雨绸缪地认识到汽车产业安全是必要的。通过本文提出的INC方法分析得出,沈阳汽车产业网络目前尚处于“安全状态”,针对该现状,提出了“战术”和“战略”两个层面的产业安全维护:从战术层面看,随着产业活动开放度的不断增大,必须树立危机意识,在现阶段客观选择和重点扶持那些已经具有相当竞争实力或者潜在竞争能力的关键企业,通过提升他们的企业核心竞争力来抵御现有的或即将出现的外部竞争冲击;从长远来看,必须以提升沈阳汽车产业整体的国际竞争力作为长远目标以确保汽车产业持续稳健的发展。
(7)根据AA-R-S逻辑思路提出的分类标准,在对沈阳汽车产业进行实证研究的基础上得出结论:沈阳汽车产业网络属“FLSG式”产业网络模式,即兼具“浮游式”、“主导式”、“滞流式”和“安全式”等特征的产业网络模式。利用复杂网络的动力学理论,本文对沈阳汽车产业网络模式的演化路径进行了预测,即“FLSG式—ELSG式—ELHG式—ELHY式—ELHG式”的转化路径。在这个转化过程中,沈阳汽车产业的竞争力将得到进一步提升。
Recently, the research on complex network is in the ascendant, which is used widely in various fields, including mathematics,bioengineering and so on. Because of its close connection with the reality and distinct qualities of interdisciplinary, complex network has been becoming one of the newly-research hotpots with great influence in 21st century. Industrial network which is also a complex social network system is a frontier in industry economics. As the research on industrial network hasn’t been carried out for a long time, the system of industrial network is immature. It is possible to introduce the complex network theories into the research on the industrial network based on the systematic complexity, and the scientific and abundant theory system can supply an effective support to the industrial network.
The strategic influence of automobile industry doesn’t only reflect the drive of national economy but also the powerful industrial relationship as well as high and new technology absorption. Shenyang is a tower of strength in the development of Liaoning automobile industry, and automobile is also the first pillar industry in Shenyang. However, how to grasp the opportunities, improve the industrial competitiveness and achieve great development in the background of global economic crisis and comparative lagging-development is an important and urgent issue for Shenyang. The qualities of automobile industry lead the industrial organization to the network. Therefore, an industrial network AARS model in the view of complex network is built based on the theories of SCP model and network three factors, following the logistic thought of actors-activities-resources-securities, which is used in the empirical research on Shenyang automobile industy.
Aiming at the four layers and five questions, several complex network theories and methods are chosen. For example, the statistic qualities of complex network are used in the research on the industrial network density. The complex network community is used in the research on the industrial network bodies’behaviors. The complex network transmission dynamics is used in the research on the industrial network resources. The frangibility and robustness are used in the research on industrial network securities. Finally, based on the logistics thought of AA-R-S, a dynamic category system including 24 industrial network modes is built. Meanwhile, relying on the complex network dynamic theory, the evolution regime of industrial network is studied and an economic model is put forward, on the ground of which the dynamic evolution path is forecasted. Based on the in-depth study on theoretical and empirical research,some innovative conclusions are drawn as follows:
(1) The density of Shenyang industrial network is low, which is reflected in both macro-density and micro-density. The conclusion accounts for the fact that the amount of collaboration between the automobile enterprises is not enough and the net relationships are very loose. Meanwhile, the industrial ecological bodies including government, education and research institutions, intermediary organizations, financial organizations have not supplied sufficient support to the enterprises and the symbiosis is in urgent to develop.
(2) There are several hub enterprises in Shenyang automobile network, including automobile parts market, Jinbei vehicle, Yiqi, Shenyang Hangtian Sanling engine companies and so on. Especially, automobile parts market with highest degree is playing a very important part. Therefore, aiming at the argument whether the development of automobile parts market should be restricted, a clear attitude is suggested in the paper that the control on the automobile parts market should be loosened and more conveniences should be supplied because the development of automobile parts market is in line with current market need and economical level.
(3) Based on the degree distribution and comparison identification, the topology structure of Shenyang automobile network approaches BA(m=2) scale-free network, whose two distinct qualities are growth and preferential attachment. The former quality means the scale of Shenyang automobile network will increase with the evolution of the industrial network. The latter one means the enterprises with great influence will get more resources and dominance, that is poor get poorer and rich get richer.
(4) Shenyang automobile network is clustered into four communities, including part enterprise community, finished automobile community, engine community and automobile parts market community. By the analysis of the in-community, out-community and inter-subnet behaviors, some problems are found out. Firstly, the part enterprises are devoid of collaboration and the product added value together with competitiveness is very low. Most local enterprises rely on the finished automobile enterprises highly and have limited network dominance. Secondly, finished automobile enterprises are the leaders in the network, but the capability of independent innovation is very weak and the similarity of products is very high. Thirdly the harmonious relations between parts enterprises and finished automobile enterprises have not come into being, and the weakness of parts enterprises is the bottleneck of the development of proprietary brand. Fourthly,although the special car enterprises’support-rate in Shenyang is comparatively high, the lack of collaboration and small workshop production mode are the main causes of the lower R&D capability. Finally, the influence of Shenyang automobile parts market should not be neglected, and it is necessary to accelerate its development.
(5) Theλof Shenyang automobile network resources diffusion efficiency is 0.0634, and the conclusion is drawn that the efficiency is not high. By the comparison between the effects of whole degree increment and part degree increment, a spiral development strategy adopting part degree increment to whole degree increment step by step can be an effective path to improve Shenyang automobile network resources diffusion efficiency.
(6) Aiming at the debate about the industrial securities in the background of globalization, a clear attitude that the automobile industry security is necessary and urgent owing to its strategic influence is suggested in the paper. By the INC method put forward first in the paper, the conclusion that Shenyang industrial network is in the security state is drawn. Therefore, tactic and strategic industrial security protection are suggested in the paper. The tactic protection includes forming the crisis consciousness and supporting the development of key enterprises with strong or potential competitive advantages. The strategic protection is only to improve the international competitiveness of Shenyang automobile industry in the long-term.
(7) According to the criterion based on the logistic thought of AA-R-S, the industrial network mode of Shenyang automobile network is identified as FLSG mode. Based on the complex network dynamic theory, the evolution path of Shenyang automobile network is dropped out, that is FLSG—ELSG—ELHG—ELHY—ELHG. In the process of evolution, the competitiveness of Shenyang automobile will be improved.
引文
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