摘要
随着我国经济的快速发展，制造业已经成我国的支柱性行业，与此同时社会对物流服务的需求也在不断增加，制造业、物流业的增长与整体经济增长显示出明显的相关趋势。从结构性因素来看，制造业的总投入中物流投入的比重越来越高，制造业与物流业在空间范围内的协同集聚趋势也日益明显。因此，制造业与物流业之间的联动有可能成为调整产业结构、转变经济增长方式的重要途径之一。然而，制造业与物流业空间协同集聚的形成机理是什么？制造业与物流业的空间协同集聚如何对经济增长产生作用？目前，国内外的相关研究尚处于起步阶段，还难以为制造业与物流业联动发展促进经济持续增长提供足够的理论和实证支持。
鉴于此，本文首先对已有的产业联动理论解释进行梳理，提出了制造业与物流业联动的前提条件、动力、行为策略与主要模式；再根据产业联动的内涵和已有的产业集聚形成机制，归纳出产业联动促进空间协同集聚形成的前提条件；并结合制造业与物流业联动的特征，对制造业和物流业联动的空间协同集聚形成条件进行了说明。其次，本文借鉴Behrens等（2009）的研究，以制造业与物流业之间的联动为基础构建了一个引入物流部门的空间集聚模型，通过对物流服务价格的内生化处理说明了当物流企业的边际成本属于一个合理的区间时，物流部门的集聚程度会随着该地区制造部门的空间集聚程度的上升而上升的协同集聚机理。再次，在分析制造业与物流业联动对经济增长的作用机制时，本文将其划分解为两个部分，一是由空间协同集聚所产生的制造业与物流业的稠密市场外部性，对两个行业生产率的影响；一是由制造业与物流业生产率增长带来行业间生产率的联动，对总体经济增长的作用；并分别采用空间匹配模型和引入产业间生产率联动增长模型对上述两部分作用机制进行了理论解释。最后，本文针对上述作用机制，实证检验了制造业与物流业联动对经济增长的作用效应，具体包括：采用动态面板模型验证了制造业与物流业的稠密市场外部性对两个行业生产率增长的影响；通过将反映行业间生产率联动的经济距离矩阵引入空间计量模型，并采用针对社会经济矩阵的空间GMM估计，检验了行业间生产率联动对经济增长的影响。
本文的主要目的在于明晰制造业与物流业空间协同集聚的形成机理及其对经济增长的作用机制，尝试弥补当前制造业与物流业联动促进经济增长的理论研究缺乏其作用机制的分析，实证研究缺乏针对相关的作用机制构建计量模型进行分析和检验的问题，从而为制造业和物流业联动促进经济增长提供相关的理论和实证依据。
As the rapid economic development, manufacturing industry has become one ofpillar industries of China, which has increased with the logistics demand. There is aobviously relevant trend with the growth of manufacturing industry, logistics industryand the GDP. From the structural factors, the proportion of logistics inputs inmanufacturing industry become higher, the trend of manufacturing and logisticsindustries’ co-agglomeration also become more and more obvious. Thus, thecomovement of manufacturing industry and logistics industry may become one ofimportant way in adjusting Chinese industrial structure and changing the mode of itseconomic growth. However, what is the mechanism of this co-agglomeration? Howthe manufacturing and logistics industries’ co-agglomeration make economic growthpromoted? Current researches in this field are still at their emerging stage, and can’tprovide enough theoretical and empirical supports.
In view of this, this paper proposes the precondition for the comovement ofmanufacturing industry and logistics industry, the power, the behavioral strategies andthe mode of this comovement, by sorting out the existing industrial comovementtheories; based on the connotation of industrial comovement and the formationmechanism of industrial agglomeration, this paper sums up the condition of industrialcomovement to promote the formation of co-agglomeration; combined with thefeature of manufacturing and logistics industries’ comovement, this paper explain thecondition of manufacturing and logistics industries’ co-agglomeration. Then, thispaper builds an agglomeration mode by introducing a logistics sector, based onmanufacturing and logistics industries’ comovement, learning by the research ofBehrens et.al (2009). By the Endogenous treatment of logistics service price, thismode shows when the margin cost of logistics enterprises is in a reasonable range, thedegree of logistics sector’s agglomeration will increase with the rise of the degree ofmanufacturing sector in the same region. When analyzing the mechanism foreconomic growth by manufacturing and logistics industries’ comovement, this paperdivides the mechanism into two parts, the one is that the thick market externalities of manufacturing and logistics industries formed by their co-agglomeration improvethese industrial productivities, the other is that comovement of inter-industrialproductivities formed by the growth of manufacturing and logistics industries’productivities affects the overall economic growth. This paper uses the spatial matchmode and growth model by introducing the comovement of inter-industrialproductivities to explain the two mechanisms above. At last, this paper makesempirical tests to the growth effects of manufacturing and logistics industries’comovement. The specific methods are using the dynamic panel model to empiricalanalyze the influence of thick market externalities on manufacturing and logisticsindustries’ productivities; using the spatial econometric model by introducing theeconomic distance matrixes which reflect the inter-industrial productivities’comovement and the spatial GMM estimation method to empirical analyze theinfluence of inter-industrial productivities’ comovement on economic growth.
The main objective of the thesis is to clear the formation mechanism ofmanufacturing and logistics industries’ co-agglomeration, the influence mechanism ofthis co-agglomeration on economic growth, to overcome the lack of these relatedmechanisms in current theoretical and empirical researches, and to provide thetheoretical supports to the economic growth afforded by manufacturing and logisticsindustries’ comovement.
引文
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