摘要
经济全球化是当今世界不可逆转的潮流。从生产角度而言,经济全球化的不断深化就表征为全球价值链分工逐步演变成为世界生产体系的主流方式。全球价值链不同环节附加值各不相同,本文将掌控全球价值链主导权、占据高附加值环节的地区和企业分别界定为先发地区和全球企业,反之称为后发地区和本地企业。后发地区和本地企业嵌入全球价值链分工主要有两种渠道,一是以国际贸易为纽带的贸易性嵌入,二是以跨国投资为纽带的产业性嵌入。在利益最大化根本原则驱动下,嵌入全球价值链分工的后发地区或本地企业存在基于全球价值链分工实施产业升级的动力,从而在全球价值链分工体系中获得更大话语权,更多经济租,更高附加值。
1978年,中国改革开放进程启动,开始从封闭型经济体向开放性经济体转型。中国与世界的经济联系进入快速深化通道,中国迅速成为全球生产网络的关键节点。作为中国经济最活跃单元的县域---特别是长三角、珠三角、环渤海等东部沿海地区的县域--因而获得了嵌入全球价值链分工的政治保障与历史机遇。部分县域通过承接大量外商投资或国际采购订单深度嵌入全球价值链分工体系,成为其中的重要组织单元。但总体而言,由于快速发展时间较短,技术水平差距依然存在,中国包括东部沿海地区县域在全球价值链分工中仍归属于后发地区,区域内绝大部分企业为本地企业。
对经济现实的深入跟踪考察发现：全球价值链分工对后发地区或本地企业具有双面效应,即经济增长效应与结构封锁效应。前者助推经济规模增长,后者阻碍获取全球价值链的高附加值。中国东部沿海地区部分县域是中国最早嵌入全球价值链分工的地区,受益于全球价值链分工的经济增长效应实现了经济规模快速增长,并由此推动中国长三角、珠三角、环渤海等地区逐步发展成为世界制造基地,是中国成为“世界工厂”的关键力量。在此过程中,涌现出一批产业规模相对较大、综合竞争能力相对较强的经济强县,典型代表是历年评选产生的“全国百强县”。而当这些经济强县试图进一步沿全球价值链向高端环节攀升,以改变其囿于全球价值链低端环节的困境时,则很可能遭遇到来自发达国家或地区(一般为全球价值链中的先发地区)的阻击,这就是全球价值链分工的结构封锁效应。
本文尝试从微观理论模型建构、宏观计量实证、产业升级机制探索、县域案例剖析等角度探讨全球价值链分工双面效应下中国县域产业升级。主要结论有：
(1)全球价值链分工双面效应存在性的理论证明：嵌入全球价值链分工的本地企业借助经济增长直接效应可以实现生产销售规模的快速扩张；并可通过产业关联作用带动周边地区企业发展、就业上升、经济增长,实现经济增长间接效应。经济增长直接效应与经济增长间接效应共同构成全球价值链分工的经济增长效应,对本地企业实现外延式发展有重大助益。一般模型和拓展模型的分析还显示：当本地企业技术增长到达某一临界值时,全球企业将对本地企业进行结构封锁,且封锁强度随本地企业技术水平的进一步增长而增强。全球企业的终极目标是通过结构封锁将本地企业持续锁定在全球价值链低端,以确保其自身在订单采购、产业投资、技术转移、价格谈判等全球价值链分工中的主导性,维持其对全球价值链高端环节的长期占位。这一结构封锁效应不利于本地企业提升在全球价值链分工中的地位,也不利于其产业从外延式发展向内涵式发展的转型。
(2)全球价值链分工双面效应理论模型对产业升级的方向性启示：经济全球化时代,本地企业要积极通过贸易性或产业性等渠道嵌入全球价值链分工体系,以助推规模扩张,提升技术水平,实现规模经济。但当本地企业产业升级进入更高层次时,很可能遭受到来自全球企业的结构封锁。因此本地企业能不能突破结构封锁,是其能否切入全球价值链分工核心环节、实现从本地企业向全球企业转型的关键。拓展到宏观区域层面,可行的建议是：嵌入全球价值链分工后,后发地区应积极发挥经济增长效应,努力突破结构封锁效应。
(3)地方性产业集群与全球价值链的关系：一般模型还证明：地方性产业集群与全球化趋势并不相违,反而有利于经济增长间接效应的作用传导。因此,培育产业链更加完善,企业间联动更加紧密的地方性产业集群有利于后发地区在全球价值链分工下获得更大发展空间。
(4)基于长三角地区县域对全球价值链分工双面效应进行实证检验发现：总体而言,在嵌入全球价值链分工的初期,全球价值链分工对长三角地区县域经济体的经济增长有正向促进作用,无论其嵌入是主要通过贸易性嵌入还是通过产业性嵌入的方式实现。但随全球价值链分工嵌入深度的增加,经济增长效应会逐渐减弱。这一弱化现象在经济发展处于相对较高水平的长三角地区全国百强县表现尤为突出。长三角地区县域工业增加值率随嵌入全球价值链分工深度的增加而降低,显现出较为明显的结构封锁效应；且产业性嵌入相对贸易性嵌入而言作用效果更为显著。而对比长三角地区全国百强县与长三角地区其它县域发现：经济水平越发达的县域,遭受结构封锁效应越显著,说明结构封锁效应启动是有触发基点的。
(5)中国县域基于全球价值链的产业升级一般方向与路径：基于全球价值链的产业升级,根本目标是提升中国县域在全球价值链分工中的地位,获取更高附加值。从全球价值链分工双面效应来理解,即是借助经济增长效应以实现经济规模快速扩大,突破结构封锁效应以抢占全球价值链高端。要达成这一目标,从全球价值链本身解读,主要有三种产业升级方向：一是节点内增值,即做精做强所处节点(环节),提升在全球价值链附加值分配中的比重；二是节点间攀升,即从全球价值链的低附加值节点(环节)向高附加值节点(环节)攀升；三是价值链跃迁,即从全球价值链总附加值较低的产业向总附加值较高的产业跃迁。
(6)中国县域产业发展四大模式的产业升级方向及要点：中国县域产业发展按其嵌入全球价值链分工方式与深度的不同可大致划分为四种模式：外生增长型,外需导向型,内需导向型,内生增长型。前两类模式与全球价值链高度联动,其产业发展的关键影响因素是国际需求与投资,即其产业发展主要为外生型；后两类模式则更注重产业发展的本土根植性与内需导向,即其产业发展主要为内生型。在全球价值链条件下,长三角地区全国百强县中的外生型县域应强化自主创新与品牌建设,努力突破结构封锁效应,促使区域内的重点龙头企业由本地企业向全球企业转型,以强化对全球价值链的掌控；内生型县域应积极依托其在国内价值链中的竞争优势,通过高端道路嵌入全球价值链以最大限度分享经济增长效应。
(7)昆山模式与江阴模式的基本特征与产业升级关键路径：昆山模式为外生型县域的代表,是典型的外生增长型产业发展模式。基本特征是：高度嵌入全球价值链,龙头企业辐射作用强劲,产业分工高度专业化,产业布局高度集聚,候鸟经济特征显著。产业升级关键路径为：1)工艺升级,提升生产制造的价值链位势；2)功能升级,生产性服务与制造业深度融合；3)培育壮大本地企业,强化产业根植性；4)开拓内需市场,激发潜在需求。江阴模式为内生型县域的代表,是典型的内生增长型产业发展模式。基本特征是：强大的产业自生能力,明确的内需市场导向,开放的资本运作,高度集聚的产业布局,优秀的政治敏锐性。产业升级关键路径为：1)国内价值链向全球价值链高端嵌入；2)产品升级,提升价值创造能力；3)链条升级,培育新兴战略产业；4)传承与创新优秀企业家精神。
Economic globalization is an irreversible trend in today's world. With the view of production system, the deepening of economic globalization means that the co-operation base on Global Value Chain (GVC) is evolveing into the mainstream of the world production system. The value-added of different segments of GVC are not the same. The regions and enterprises are defined as the Developed Regions and Global Enterprises, which have controled the leading power of GVC and occupy the segments of high value-added, whereas is known as the Developing Regions and Local Enterprises. For the Developing Regions and Local Enterprises, there are two main channels to embed GVC:the first is embedding by international trade, and the second is embedding by cross-border investment. For the aim of profit maximization, the Developing Regions and Local Enterprises are motivated to implementate industrial upgrading base on GVC, and thus get the greater right to speak, higher economic rent, and more value-added.
In 1978, China launched reform and opening-up policy, begined the transition from a closed economy to open economy. China ties with the world economy more and more, and China is rapidly becoming a key node in global production networks. County is the most active unit of China's economy. Thus the countys of China --- particularly the county of Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, the Bohai Sea in eastern coastal areas --- won political protection and historic opportunity to emded in GVC. Parts of the countys have to be the important units of GVC through undertaking a large number of foreign investment or international trade. Overall, however, due to the short time of rapid development, technology gap still exists. The China's counties in eastern coastal are still vested in the Developing Regions of GVC, and most enterprises of these counties are the Local Enterprises.
With more studing about economic conducts, it can be that:the co-operation base on GVC has the double-sided effects on the Developed Regions and Global Enterprises, economic growth effects and structural blockade effects. The former boosts economic growth, the latter hinders access to high value-added of GVC. A part of the counties of China's eastern coastal are the pioneers to embed in GVC, and have achieve rapid economies growth for benefiting from economic growth effects of GVC, and thus promote the eastern coastal regions --- such as Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, the Bohai Sea --- become the world's manufacturing base, and also play a important role for China to be "world factory". In this process, some strong economy counties have emergence, which are a relatively relatively large scale of the industry, relatively strong comprehensive competitiveness, named a typical representative of the "National Top100 Counties". When these economic counties trying to rise to change its low-end position in the GVC, then they may be subjected to blocked from developed countries (usually are the Developed Regions of GVC), which is the structural blockade effects of GVC.
With the methoeds of micro theoretical models, macro econometrics, case analysis, this paper attempts to explore the industrial upgrading of China counties base on the double-sided effects of GVC. The main conclusions are:
(1) The theory provement of the existence of double-sided effects of GVC:local enterprises can realize a rapid expansion of production and sales with the direct economic growth effects of GVC; and there are also the indirect economic growth effects of GVC, which can promote the development of circumjacent enterprise, increase of employment, growth of macro economic through the surrounding industry association. The economic growth effects of GVC are constituted the direct of economic growth effects and indirect economic growths of effects, which are very helpful for Local Enterprises to achieve denotative development. The analysis base on the general model and expand model also showed:when the growth of local enterprise technology at a certain critical value, the Global Enterprises will to block the development of Local Enterprises, and the strength of blocking will biger if the technology of local businesses to further growth. The ultimate goal of Global Enterprises is try to make Local Enterprises will continue to be locked in the low end of GVC, in order to ensure that their leading power in the co-operation of GVC, such as international trade, cross-borde investment, technology transfer, price negotiations and so on, to maintain occupying high-end segement of GVC in the long-term. This structure blocking effects are not conducive for Local Enterprises to enhance the status in the GVC, are also not conducive to the transformation of development type from extensive to intensive development.
(2) The implications for industrial upgrading base on the model of double-effects of GVC:With the background of the economic globalization, Local Enterprises should try best of embed in GVC through international trade or corss-border investment, in order to boost the economic, upgrade technology. But when the industrial upgrading of local enterprises to enter a higher level, it is likely to suffer structure blockade from the Global Enterprises. Therefore, the capability of Local Enterprises to strike the structure blockade is the key for Local Enterprises to cut into the core part of GVC and even to become the Global Enterprises. Extended to the macro-regional level, there are some practical advices:when be a member of GVC, the Developing Regions should try best to use the economic growth effects well and break through the structure blockade effects.
(3) The relationships between local industrial clusters and GVC:General model also showed that:local industry clusters is not contrary to the trend of globalization, but is conducive to indirect economic growth effects. Therefore, it is in favor of the Developing Regions to get the greater room for development by fostering more complete industry chain of local industrial clusters and more closely linked of enterprises.
(4) Base on the Yangtze River County, an empirical test about the double-sided effect of GVC found that:In general, the economic of the counties in the Yangtze River Delta has grow rapidly, with the benefit from the co-operation base on GVC when the early time of embedding in GVC, regardless of their embedding is mainly through trade or invesrment. However, with the increases of embedded depth in GVC, economic growth effects will gradually diminish. The weakening is particularly prominent for nation top 100 counties. The rate of Industrial Value-added of the counties in Yangtze River Delta have reduced with the increases of the depth of embedding inGVC, revealing significant structure blockable effects; and it is more significant when mainly embedding by investment. It is can be found by comparing between national top 100 countiese and other countys in Yangtze River Delta region that:the counties being suffer the more significant structure blockable effects when their economy is better, so it can be said that structure blockable effects is triggered start of critical points.
(5) The general direction and path of industrial upgrading for Chinese Counties based on GVC:Based on the GVC, The fundamental objective of industrial upgrading for Chinese Counties is to enhance status and value-added in GVC. With the view of double-sided effects of GVC, it is also means in order to achieve economies scale rapid expansion through the economic growth effects, and to seize the high-end of GVC through breaking the structure blockade effects. To achieve this goal, there are three main directions of industrial upgrading: first, adding value in node, that is doing fine and stronger which nodes (links), and increase the distribution of value-added in the GVC for this node; Second, rising between nodes, rose from low value-added nodes (links) to the high value-added node (link) in the same GVC; Third, transiting between value chains, transit from the GVC with low total value-added to the other GVC with high total value-added.
(6) The direction and key points of industrial upgrading for China counties with of the four models of industrial development:there are four models of industrial development for counties in China by the way and depth of embedding in GVC:Exogenous Growth Model, External Demand-oriented Model, Domestic Demand-oriented Model, and Endogenous Growth Model. The former two models are exogenous model, with the critical factors affecting industry development are cross-borde investment and international demand; the latter two models are endogenous model, with the domestic demand-oriented and local industry embeddedness. With the background of GVC, the endogenous Counties of the national top 100 counties in Yangtze River Delta region should actively embed in GVC through the high road, relying on their competitive advantage in National Value Chain (NVC), in order to maximize the share of economic growth effects of GVC; Exogenous Counties should strengthen the innovation and brand building to breakthrough the structure blocking effects, in order to prompte the leading enterprise within the region to transform from Local Enterprises to Global Enterprise, and to enhance the control of GVC.
(7) The indusrial character and the the critical path of industrial upgrading of Jiangyin Model and Kunshan Model:Kunshan Model representatives for exogenous counties, is a typical Exogenous Growth Model of industrial development. The basic features of Kunshan are:highly embedded in GVC, strong radiation of leading enterprises, highly specialized industrial co-operation, high concentration of industrial distribution, significantly characteristics namely economic of migratory birds. The critical path of industrial upgrading are:1) processing upgrade and enhance potential of production in GVC; 2) Feature upgrades, depthly integration between service and manufacturing production; 3) fostering the growth of local enterprises, and strengthen industrial embeddedness; 4) open up the domestic market and stimulate potential demand. Jiangyin Model representatives endogenous counties, is a typical Endogenous Growth Model of industrial development. The basic characteristics of indusrial development are:strong self ability of industry, domestic market-oriented, open capital operation, high concentration of industrial layout, good political acumen. The critical path of industrial upgrading are:1) high-end embedded form NVC to in GVC; 2) Product upgrade and enhance ability to create value; 3) chain upgrading, nurturing emerging strategic industries; 4) inheritance and innovation of outstanding entrepreneurship.
引文
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38 OEM (Original Equipment Manufacture)指按原设备或零部件制造或组装,这是最低层次的业务外包.原设备或零部件与品牌都是制造商的.供应商只是受委托为制造商代工,进行定牌生产。ODM(Original Design Manufacture):指按原设计制造零部件和整机。DMS(Design Manufacture Service):指设计、制造和服务都交给供应商.这是台湾供应商接受较多的一种外包模式。EMS(Engineering Manufacture Service):指工程、制造和服务，这在这种模式下.品牌厂商只需提出其产品更新换代的大体“构想”,代工厂商就可能把这个“构想”变为原品牌的改进型新产品,包括拿出改进产品制造的工程书与工艺文件即产品工程化。(刘景江,2003)
39胡军,陶锋,陈建林.珠三角OEM企业持续成长的路径选择——基于全球价值链外包体系的视角[J].中国工业经济,2005(08)
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46 DMS ((Engineering Manufacture Service)),详细定义见刘景江(2003)。
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53张辉(2005)认为：蔓延式布局的空间范围一般会遵循附加值的距离衰减规律,附加值越大,该产业集群的空间范围也越大。而且时间距离的意义更甚于空间距离。---张辉.全球价值链下地方产业集群升级模式研究[J].中国工业经济,2005(09)：11-18
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81在此处,浙江省、江苏省不包括市辖区,上海市仅列入崇明县。
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