摘要
流域洪水威胁和水资源严重短缺共存,通过水库汛限水位的调整运用处理好防洪与蓄水矛盾是实现洪水资源安全利用的重要途径。论文围绕流域洪水资源利用的若干核心问题:流域洪水资源化潜力、流域暴雨洪水的季节性变化规律、水库汛期分期定量描述方法、水库分期设计洪水计算方法以及水库汛限水位调整运用的风险设计等进行了深入研究,构建了利用水库汛限水位调蓄洪水资源的理论体系和技术框架。
论文在全面回顾国内外洪水资源利用的理论研究和科学实践的基础上,阐明了洪水资源化的定义和内涵,系统地提出洪水资源化的利用方式及其实现途径,分析了人类活动和自然因素共同作用下流域洪水资源特性的变化规律及演变趋势,定量评价了流域洪水资源利用的现状水平和洪水资源可利用潜力;论文从研究水库流域暴雨、洪水季节变化规律入手,分析了暴雨洪水的时空分布特性,结合影响流域降雨发生的天气系统和大气环流条件的气象成因分析,定性提出了水库控制流域暴雨洪水的季节分期规律;同时辅以采用气象界划分法、模糊集合分析法、系统聚类法、分形方法和Fisher最优分割法等多种定量分析方法的综合对比来探索汛期的合理划分;针对分期设计洪水计算中洪水系列选样方法的问题,通过典型水库的实例分析,探讨了年最大值选样、年超大值选样、超定量选样以及抽样方法中“定期选样法”和“跨期选样法”对分期设计洪水的参数估计及计算成果的影响;基于对水库汛限水位主要影响因素的系统分析,从洪水资源安全利用的角度出发,阐明了水库汛限水位调整综合分析论证所应遵循的原则,提出了风险设计和综合分析论证的框架和定量分析方法,详细分析了汛限水位合理调整的论证内容。以海河流域岳城、潘家口水库为分析实例,从设计洪水、预报预泄、洪水预报调度方式、上下游防洪设计标准、上游移民淹没及土地退赔线、水库长期运行的风险和效益等多个方面分析论证了水库汛限水位的合理调整方案。
There is a co-existence between flood threatening and shortage of water resources in a river basin. It is an important approach to realize the safe utilization of flood resources by the adjustment and application of limited level of reservoir during flood season to solve the contradiction between flood control and water impoundment. Focusing on such several key issues of flood utilization as resources in a basin as potentiality of flood resources in a basin, seasonal variation principle of storm flood in a basin, stage quantitative description method during flood period, computational method of stage design flood and risk design of adjustment and application of limited level of reservoir during flood season, deepgoing study is conducted in this dissertation. Thus a theoretic system and technical framework to utilize limited level of reservoir during flood season are established to store flood as water resources.On the basis of overall review of theoretic researches and scientific practices of flood resources utilization both at home and abroad, the definition and connotation of flood resources are expounded in this paper. The utilization pattern and its realization approach are systematically put forward. The variation principles and evolution tendency of flood resources features in a basin under the joint function of human activities and natural factors are analyzed. The status quo and potentiality of flood resources utilization in a basin are quantitatively evaluated. Started from the research of basin storm and seasonal variation tendency of flood, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of storm flood are analyzed. Combined with analyses of weather system and meteorological genesis of atmospheric circulation condition which impact rainfall occurrence in a catchment, the seasonal variation tendency of storm flood in a basin are quantitatively put forward. Meanwhile, complemented by comprehensive comparison among many quantitative analytical methods, such as meteorological division method, fuzzy set analytical means, system assembling method, fractal method and Fisher optimal dissection method, etc., the rational division of flood seasonal period is probed. In regard to the sampling method of flood series in the stage design flood computation, the influence of AMS(annual maximum series) sampling, AES(annunl exceedance series) sampling, PDS (partial duration series) sampling, periodical and trans-periodical sampling on the parameter estimations and computation results of stage design flood is discussed with case studies of typical reservoirs. Based on the systematical analysis of main influential factors of limited level of reservoir during flood season, principles followed by the comprehensive analyses and argumentation of adjustment for limited level of reservoir during flood season is clarified in view of safe utilization of flood resources. Furthermore, the framework and quantitative analytical method of risk design and comprehensive analyses and argumentation are raised, and
argumentation contents for reasonable adjustment of limited level of reservoir during flood season are intensively analyzed. Taken the Yuecheng Reservoir and Panjiakou Reservoir in the Hai River Basin as case studies, a rational adjustment scheme of limited level of reservoir during flood season is analyzed and tested from many aspects like design flood, flood forecast and pre-release, operation pattern of flood forecast, design standard of upstream and downstream flood control, upstream resettlement scope, risk and benefit of long-term reservoir simulation.
引文
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