我国严重威胁性外来入侵植物入侵与扩散历史过程重建及其潜在分布区的预测
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摘要
外来生物入侵已经在世界范围内造成严重的危害,它不仅导致生物多样性的减少和丧失而且威胁着全球的生态环境和经济发展。入侵种在入侵区域的种群扩散是入侵种带来风险的最根本问题,也是其造成危害的重要原因。研究入侵物种的扩散规律可以了解其在入侵地的入侵状况和扩散趋势,这对制定合理的控制措施具有重要意义。本研究选取14种在我国具有较强威胁性的外来入侵植物,通过对其入侵历史动态的分析,判断其在我国的入侵与扩散阶段,进而预测其在我国的潜在分布区。这14种外来植物为紫茎泽兰(Ageratina adenophora)、土荆芥(Chenopodium ambrosioides.)、喜旱莲子草(Alternanthera philoxeroides)、反枝苋(Amaranthus retroflexus)、刺苋(Amaranthus spinosus)、皱果苋(Amaranthus viridis)、北美独行菜(Lepidium virginicum)、藿香蓟(Ageratum conyzoides)、钻形紫菀(Aster subulatus)、小蓬草(Conyza canadensis)、一年蓬(Erigeron annuus)、牛膝菊(Galinsoga paviflora)、飞机草(Eupatorium odorata)和北美商陆(Phytolacca americana)。
     紫茎泽兰最早于20世纪40年代入侵我国,经过1940—1960年长达20年的时滞期,紫茎泽兰开始在云南及其临近的省份如四川、贵州和广西迅速扩散。其中,紫茎泽兰在南亚热带和中亚热带气候条件下的扩散速度为20公里/年,而在垂直地带性北亚热带地区的扩散速度为6.8公里/年。紫茎泽兰仍没有入侵到垂直地带性暖温带地区。尽管1990年后,紫茎泽兰在云南基本停止扩散,但其在邻近省(市)的快速传播表明紫茎泽兰在我国仍处在扩散阶段,还没有达到饱和阶段。
     生态位模型预测结果和紫茎泽兰在已经入侵地区扩散的地理生态式样基本相符。我国南部及中南部地区的气候条件十分适合紫茎泽兰生长。而在华中地区,由于环境条件不太适宜,其扩散速度会相对较慢。我国北部和西北部的气候条件完全不适合紫茎泽兰生存。因此,我国南部和中南部广大未入侵地区将会受到紫茎泽兰入侵和快速扩散的严重威胁,对此应该立即采取紧急措施。自从紫茎泽兰于1978年首次入侵四川省以来,已经在四川、重庆和湖北大面积扩散。紫茎泽兰在此新近入侵区域主要沿河流、公路、铁路扩散。其中沿安宁河、108国道和成昆铁路向北扩散的平均速度为19公里/年,而沿金沙江-长江向东北扩散的平均速度为33公里/年。特别是2000年以后,紫茎泽兰沿金沙江-长
Biological invasions can alter both the structure and function of ecosystems and have linked to the reduced richness and diversity of native species around the world. Any biological invasion would be a "big bomb" for our agriculture and result in ecological and economic losses in specific ecosystem and specific geographic regions. The range expansion of alien species is the critial reason for them to cause ecological problems in the invade region. Therefore, understanding the patterns of invasive species over space and time and their potential for further spread will help to policy makers to determine appropriate management strategies and activities.
     The aim of this research was to first reconstruct the invasion and expansion processes of the fourteen alien invasive species in China, and then to identify and determine the invasion and expansion phases. Finally, based on ecological niche modelling combined with the geographical and ecological patterns revealed in the historical reconstruction of their invasions, we tried to predict the potential invasion areas in mainland of China. The fourteen invasive alien species are Ageratina adenophora, Chenopodium ambrosioides, Alternanthera philoxeroides, Amaranthus retroflexus, Amaranthus spinosus, Amaranthus viridis, Lepidium virginicum, Ageratum conyzoides, Aster subulatus, Conyza canadensis, Erigeron annuus, Galinsoga paviflora, Eupatorium odorata, and Phytolacca americana.
     A. adenophora is one of the worst invasive alien species in China. A. adenophora was first noticed in Yunnan province of China in the 1940s. After a lag phase of 20 years (1940-1960), A. adenophora spread rapidly throughout the south and middle subtropical zones in Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, and Guangxi, China, with an average expansion
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