摘要
合肥是安徽省会,也是全省的经济、文化中心。改革开放以来,合肥城市得到了迅速的发展。随着城市规模的扩大和社会经济的发展,合肥的城市气候效应日益突出。城市化进程所产生的城市大气污染、不透水路面的增加,参差不齐的建筑物等所造成的城市热岛效应、干岛效应、暗岛效应等给人们的工作、生活和城市生态环境都带来了不利的影响。
本文在分析合肥城市气候中的若干气象因子(气温、相对湿度、降水、日照)年变化及其季节变化特征的基础上,论证城市化进程对城市气候变化的影响,探讨改善城市气候条件的途径,从而为城市规划、城市建设、城市环保、城市建筑物设计和管理等提供理论依据。
本文得出主要结果如下:
1.利用合肥城市发展相关的9个主要指标(城市人口比重、人均国内生产总值、城市第三产业占国内生产总值的比重、适龄人口中学的入学率、城市人均道路铺装面积、城市人均住房面积、城市千人拥有的医生数、城市人均公共绿地面积、城市用气气化率)进行分析表明,合肥市近32年来城市在不断发展,其城市化水平不断提高。利用主成分分析对上述9个主要指标进行分析,得到合肥城市化水平的综合指标LU。通过对该指标的动态变化分析得出,合肥城市化水平不断提高,其平均增长速率为15.58/10a个百分点。最近几年合肥处于迅速发展的起步期,在未来的几年合肥市将会得到更快的发展。
2.通过对合肥年平均气温、年相对湿度、年降水量、年日照时数进行分析表明,合肥市区存在热岛效应、干岛效应和暗岛效应,其雨岛效应不明显。具体表现为:
(1)通过对合肥年平均气温进行历史气温对比、城郊气温对比分析表明,合肥市区存在城市热岛。从年平均气温的年际变化特征可知,合肥城市热岛效应将会随着时间的推移而逐渐增强。对其季节变化进行分析显示,合肥四季均有热岛效应存在。四季中以冬季热岛效应最显著,增长速率0.1℃/10a:夏季最弱,增长速率0.049℃/10a:春季增长速率0.068℃/10a;秋季增长速率0.081℃/10a;春、秋介于两者之间。
(2)合肥城市相对湿度的年际变化是在波动中有所减小,近32年的相对湿度差值绝对值的平均值为3.96%,1995年是合肥市年相对湿度的一个跃变点,由高湿向低湿转变;城、郊对比表明,市区与郊区年相对湿度的差值△RH_(u-r)(%)绝对值的季节变化以冬季1月份为最大,其次是春季,夏季6月份最小。合肥城市的干岛效应以冬季最强,增长最快,夏季最弱,增长最慢。
(3)合肥城市年降水量在近32年来普遍都大于郊区,城区和郊区的年降水量都在波动中有所减少,其城、郊的差值也在逐渐减小。城区降水量相对于郊区存在着雨岛效应,相对于城区本身又存在着城市干岛效应。
(4)合肥城市年日照时数在波动中有所减少,城、郊年日照时数相差幅度呈逐年波动上升的趋势,年平均日照时数城、郊差值绝对值的变化速率为45.62h/10a,四季相比,城、郊差值最大的是春季的4月份,平均为17.3h,其次是秋季的9月份,为16.0h。最小的是冬季的2月,为0.8h。
3.合肥城市热岛呈逐渐增强的趋势,合肥城市热岛与城市化水平呈正相关性,且拟合方程为:y=O.563-0.027x+0.001x~2-1.1E-05x~3,(R~2=0.706,p 4.年降水量与城市化水平的回归方程没有通过O.05的显著性检验,表明合肥城市年降水量随着合肥城市的发展,其增加趋势不明显。年降水量相对于市区本身而言呈现逐年波动减少的趋势,相对郊区而言,城市热岛愈强,其城、郊相差幅度将会愈大。
5.受城市化影响,合肥年相对湿度呈现不断下降的趋势,其变化速率为-0.709%/10a;年平均相对湿度的城、郊差值与城市化水平存在较大的相关性,其拟合方程为:y=7.4049-2.7585x+0.2674x~2-0.0125x~3+0.0003x~4-3E-06x~5+2E-08x~6(R~2=0.6675,p 6.合肥年日照时数不断减少,市区与郊区的相差幅度有逐渐增大的趋势。对合肥年日照时数与城市化水平的关系进行分析,得出二者之间存在很大的负相关性,其拟合方程为:y=1926.454+2.980x-0.423x%0.005x~(R2--0.6675,pHefei is capital and economic and cultural center of Anhui province. Since the reform and openning, Hefei has been developed rapidly. With the expansion of city scale and socio-economic development, climate effects of city have become increasingly prominent in Hefei. Urbanization process generated urban air pollution、the increasing of waterproof road surface ,uneven buildings etc.,which caused urban effects of heat island, dry island, dark island and so on. Environment of people's working,living and city's ecology have been brought about disadvantageous effects.
This paper analysed the annual and seasonal changes of sevaral meteorological factors in Hefei climate (temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, sunshine hours). On the basis of these analysis , the climate causes forming and process of urban were studied, which demonstrated thate it existed the relationship between urbanization and climate change. The ways of improving the urban climate conditions were discussed,which can provide a theoretical basis for urban planning, urban construction, urban environmental protection, urban building design and management etc..The main conclusions were as following.
1. Using 9 key indicators of Hefei development for principal component analysis,which indicated that urbanization level increasingly improved in Hefei .The average growth rate was 15.58 percentage points in every 10 years.
2. The average temperature, relative humidity, annual precipitations and sunshine duration were analysed, which indicated that there were effects of heat, dry and dark islands in Hefei.But the effect of rain island was not obvious. Hefei urban precipitations was generally larger than the suburb's in the past 32 years. but urban has the trend of the precipitation reduced gradually. Seasonal changes analysis showed that: Heat island effect of the winter was most significantly in Hefei ,growth rate was 0.1℃in every 10 years; The weakest is summer growth rate was 0.049℃in every 10 years; spring growth rate was 0.068℃in every 10 years;autumn growth rate was 0.081℃in every 10 years; spring and autumn are between the winter and summer .The most change of△RH_(u-r)(%) absolute value was in January in the winter.The weakest was in June in the summer.
3. Urban heat island and the urbanization level was positively correlationand in Hefei Fitting equation: y=0563-0.027x+0.001x~2-1.1E-05x~3, (R~2=0.706,p<0.01).
4. The regression equation of precipitation and the urbanization level did not pass the 0.05 significant test.It showed that increasing trend of precipitation was not obvious as the Hefei development.
5. Affected by the urbanization,the yearly relative humidity showed the declining trend in Hefei.The change rate was -0.709% in every 10 years; The urbanization level and the difference between suburb and urban existed bigger correlativity .Its intended equation: y=7.4049-2.7585x+0.2674x~2-0.0125x~3+0.0003x~4-3E-06x~5+2E-08x~6(R~2=0.6675,p<0.01).
6. The yearly sunshine duration was steady decline in Hefei.The difference of urban and suburb sunshine hours have gradually increased .The sunshine duration and the urbanization level existed negative correlation .Fitting equation:y =1926.454+2.980x+0.4 23x~2+0.005x~3(R~2=0.6675,p<0.01).The urbanization level and the difference between suburb and urban existed bigger correlativity.The regression equation:y=88.752-21.995x +1.1609x~2-0.0259x~3+0.0002x~4(R~2=0.7318,P<0.01).It indicated that the sunshine duration and the difference between suburb and urban have trend of steady decline as Hefei development.
引文
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