摘要
本研究在当今价格结构性上涨成为常态等背景下,借鉴总量以及结构性通货膨胀理论的发展,综合运用多种研究手段与方法,在深入考察中国工农产品价格波动的结构性特征的基础上,结合我国的宏观经济特征和微观主体特点,从经济结构、制度结构以及预期结构三个视角透视中国工农产品价格结构性上涨的形成机理和维持机制,并分别设计验证分析。最后立足于中国管理价格结构性波动的基础环境,总结探讨中国未来管理工农价格波动的主要思路和合理方向。
一、研究结论
1、中国的工农产品价格结构性上涨机制并不符合传统的结构性通胀理论。与传统的成本驱动型的结构性通胀理论不同,中国的价格波动往往是与需求周期波动高度耦合的。并且,作为一个处于经济转型时期的发展中国家,中国的价格波动不可能剥离转型时期的独特制度因素。另外,转型时期特殊的市场体系和主体特征也造成了工业部门和农业部门活动主体不同的预期表现形式,这在传统的结构性通胀理论中都并没有得到诠释。
2、二元结构特征是需求冲击背景下中国工农价格结构性上涨的逻辑起点。发展中国家在利用后发优势和经济全球化的有利条件实现经济赶超时,往往会选择工业部门作为技术引进和技术模仿的先导,由此带动工业部门的“蛙跳式”增长,形成工农两部门发展的绝对差距。中国作为快速发展的新兴成长经济体,面临提振经济促进国民收入向发达国家收敛的重任。中国在利用后发优势和经济全球化的有利条件实现经济赶超时,也选择了工业化发展战略,二元结构特征得以存续发展。二元结构使得当面临需求冲击时,供给能力较强、产能充裕的工业部门能够快速对接,而供需矛盾则逐渐向产能不足的农业部门累积,形成工农产品价格结构性上涨。
3、转轨过程中的制度干预促成了更为明显的价格结构性上涨。中国正在经历计划经济向市场经济转轨,转轨时期独特的制度安排,形成了非完全市场决定的价格形成机制,尤其是工业品和农产品价格的制度扭曲,在中国式价格波动的形成和维持中具有重要意义。转轨过程中政府对农产品价格的压低以及部分工业品超越均衡价格的制度干预,不仅不会缓和两部门价格分化,反而会刺激农产品的巨大需求和工业品的市场供给,从而带来更为明显的价格结构性上涨格局。
4、预期性质的差异加剧工农产品价格结构性上涨。由于工农产品的预期性质存在明显差异,工业品价格调整灵活而农产品价格具有惯性,两者分别以理性预期和适应性预期为主导。工农产品价格主导预期性质的差异,使得当一个外生的冲击发生时,农产品价格的适应性预期会引起追涨杀跌而刺激市场供求关系变化,而工业品价格理性预期使其合理评估供需做出价格判断,工农产品价格预期性质差异是加剧工农价格结构性上涨的重要推手,预期差异对形成工农产品价格结构性上涨的贡献达39.1%-62.0%。
5、工农产品价格结构性上涨对宏观经济的影响有利有弊。工农产品价格结构性上涨能够通过一系列渠道对宏观经济产生重要影响,具有复杂的影响效果。例如工农产品价格结构性上涨既可以通过通货膨胀效应、福利成本损失加剧经济波动损害消费者利益,也会通过产业结构效应、收入分配效应调整工农产业以及城乡居民收入的失衡状态。
二、政策含义
工农产品价格结构性上涨对中国宏观经济具有重要的影响。政府在应对工农产品价格结构性上涨时,需要以工农产品价格结构性上涨的宏观经济效应为目标函数,以工农产品价格结构性上涨的形成机理为切入点,配套相关政策引导释放其有利层面,同时防治其负面影响。当然,政府在运用政策管理价格结构性上涨时必须联系中国的基础环境,基于现实环境提出切实可行的操作手段以及强劲有力的政策工具,科学合理地进行政策引导和管理。
1、以协同工农业投资为导向,弥合工农技术水平和供给能力差异。一是适时调整政府工农投资方向和比例,减少工业部门无效率的投资进入农业部门；二是通过财政补贴农业并向垄断工业企业征税,引导农业投资；三是发挥金融市场的作用转嫁和分散农业风险,扶持农业投资。
2、以推进农业产业化为导向,建立统筹城乡的工农市场体系。第一,加快农业生产的规模化和链条化；第二,将农民培育成真正的市场主体,保证市场公平竞争;第三,建立农业供需预警系统,为农业生产者提供信息指引;最后,防范金融投机,稳定市场秩序。
3、以防止失当的政策调控为导向,保持一定容忍度。第一,容忍农产品价格的回溯性上涨;第二,理解工业品价格的平稳性态势。
4、以疏导经济过热为导向,抑制过快的价格结构性上涨。第一,保持合理增长速度,防范经济过热；第二,减少外部冲击和依赖,实现国内国外经济均衡发展;第三,加强区域、地区间的协调和配合,促进地区从分割走向整合。
三、主要创新点
1、提出了二元结构约束下需求冲击式的中国结构性价格上涨形成逻辑。不同于传统的成本推动型的结构性通胀形成假说,本研究提出了需求冲击式的价格结构性上涨形成机理,特别是提出二元结构矛盾促成了需求冲击导向价格结构性上涨的传递。
2、将转轨时期中国的制度特征融入结构性价格上涨分析框架。以转轨背景下工农产品价格的制度扭曲为基本假设,发现转轨过程中政府对农产品价格的压低以及部分工业品超越均衡价格的制度干预,不仅不会缓和两部门价格分化,反而会刺激农产品的巨大需求和工业品的市场供给,从而带来更为明显的价格结构性上涨格局。
3、吸收了预期学派的研究成果使得解释机理更具微观基础。工农产品生产者不同的市场参与度,造成了两者的预期性质存在差异,工农产品价格分别以适应性预期和理性预期为主导,并且通胀水平越高越容易强化工农产品价格的主导预期差异,预期异质性加剧了工农产品价格结构性上涨,这在以往研究中并没有得到揭示。
Now the increasing trend of structural price rising becomes normalized. In this study, I'll borrow structural inflation and total inflation theory and use a variety of research tools and methods. Firstly, I'll study the structural characteristics of the Chinese industrial and agricultural price fluctuations and the China's macro and micro economic characteristics. Then, in terms of the economic structure, the expected structure and the institutional structure, I'll try to analyze the formative and sustaining mechanism of structural rising of the Chinese industrial and agricultural prices. Finally, based on the China's management model of price fluctuation, I'll draw lessons from Soviet Union and other Transition Economics and explore reasonable direction of managing the price fluctuation in the future.
一、RESEARCH CONCLUSION
1、China's industrial and agricultural price structural rising is not consistent with the traditional theory of structural inflation. For China, the price fluctuations are highly coupled with Demand Cycle. As a developing country during the period of economic transition, the price fluctuations are closely connected with the China's unique institutional factors. n addition, the special characteristics of the market system are contributed to the different expected performance between the industrial and the agricultural sector during the transition's period, which cannot be interpreted by the traditional theory of structural inflation.
2、Urban-Rural dualistic structure is the logical starting point of price structural rising under the contest of demand shocks. Developing countries often choose the industrial sector as a forerunner of technical introduction and imitation, when they try to realize the economic catch-up by use of the favorable condition under economic globalization. As the result, the industrial sector gets the "leapfrog" growth, which causes the huge gap between the two sectors. China, as a fast-growing emerging economy, has a heavy responsibility which is boosting his economy and rising GDP, aiming to approach the level of the developed countries. Throughout the catching-up, China chooses the industrialization development strategy, which keeps sustainable development of dualistic structure, under the advantageous condition of economic globalization. When facing with demand shocks, under the Urban-Rural dualistic structure, the industrial sector can cope easily because of his strong supply capability and sufficient capacity, whereas the contradiction between supply and demand is gradually accumulated to the agricultural sector, whose capacity is insufficient. Finally, the Division into Two Parts gradually comes into being.
3、Government's intervention leads to an obviously price structural rising during the transition process. China is undergoing the transition period from planned economy to market economy. The unique institutional arrangements, during this time, lead to the non-fully market-determined price formation mechanisms. In particular, the distorted system of industrial and agricultural products price has a vast importance to Chinese-style price fluctuations and maintenance. Government's behavior, such as lowering the price of agricultural products and rising industrial, will not only ease two departments price differentiation, but stimulate the agricultural market huge demand and industrial supply, thereby, resulting in more obviously structural price rise pattern.
4、The expected property's difference reinforces price structural rising. As there are significant differences of expected property between two types of products, industrial prices are oriented towards rational expectations guide and can be adjusted freely, while agricultural prices are oriented towards adaptive expectations and have inertia. When an exogenous shock occurs, agricultural adaptive expectations will result in exciting changes in market supply and demand, while industrial rational expectations will result in a reasonable assessment to adjust the price, thanks to the expected property's difference. The expected property's difference contributes greatly to the structural price rising, which accounts for39.1%-62.0%.
5、There are both advantages and disadvantages of the price structural rising to macroeconomic. The structural price increase play a major and complex role in macroeconomic, for example, the increased economic volatility, due to the increase, is to the detriment of the consumer by inflationary effects or the welfare loss. For another, the increase will help to adjust the imbalance of Industry-Agriculture and Urban-Rural residents' income by industrial structure or income distribution effects.
二、Policy Implications
The structural price increase play a major role in China's macroeconomic. In response to the structural price increase, government should create its macroeconomic effect target function, consider its formation mechanism as the breakthrough point, draw on its advantages and avoid disadvantages. Of course, the government must contact China's basic environmental reality, when he is trying to manage the structural price increase. Based on the reality, the government may propose practicable means and powerful policy tools, give a scientific and rational way for policy guidance and management.
1、Investment must be encouraged on the synergic relationship between industry and agriculture, bridge their technological and supply-capacity discrepancy. First, adjust their investment'direction and proportion timely, reducing inefficient industrial investment and rising efficient agricultural; second, finance gives subsidy to agriculture, levies a tax on monopoly Industrial Enterprises and guides investment in agriculture; third, financial market should play a part in transferring and scattering agricultural risk, supporting investment in agriculture.
2、Orient agriculture to industrialization, establish industry and agriculture market system, which is also balancing Urban and rural. First, accelerate agricultural production's scale and chain; second, cultivate farmers into real market players and ensure market competition fair; third, establish warning system of agricultural supply and demand and provide information guidelines timely.
3、Orient policy to prevent misconduct and maintain a certain tolerance. First, tolerate the retrospective rising agricultural prices; second, understanding the smooth trend of industrial prices.
4、Orient economy to ease the overheated and suppress excessively price structural rising. First, maintain a reasonable growth rate and prevent overheating; second, reduce external shocks and dependence and balance economy between here and abroad; third, strengthen inter-regional coordination and cooperation and promote regional integration.
三、Main innovation
1、Under Urban-Rural dualistic structure and the impact of demand, propose China's structural price rising's formative logic. This paper buildes the microscopic foundation by referring to abroad framework and establish the theoretical framework for the hypothesis of department's development difference by structured analysis method. The empirical results, by using inter-provincial dynamic panel system GMM, show that domestic and foreign output gap, formed by demand shocks, plays an important role in China's price adjustment, that the dualistic structure bring about the price structural pressure, which is caused also by demand shocks.
2、Integrates Chinese market system features during the transition period into analytical framework. The paper considers the twist of the industrial and agricultural system, under the background of transition, as the basic hypothesis. Under the conditions of commodity market equilibrium, the paper builds the theoretical framework, which some institutional factors affect China's industrial and agricultural prices structural increase. Then the theoretical framework is tested by using inter-provincial dynamic panel system GMM. The theoretical and empirical analysis reveals that Government's behavior, such as lowering the price of agricultural products and rising industrial, will not only ease two departments price differentiation, but stimulate the agricultural market huge demand and industrial supply, thereby, resulting in more obviously structural price rise pattern.
3、Absorb research findings of the expectations theory and make explaining mechanism more micro-based.
Research that how much the expected property's difference contributes to the structural price rising, by using time-varying parameter model, quantile regression analysis method and decomposition method. The results showed that, during the review period, industrial price is adaptive expectation orientation while agricultural price is rational expectation orientation. For anther, the higher the level of inflation is, the more different the dominant price expectation is. Additionally, the heterogeneity of expectation intensifies the structural price rising.
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