摘要
各地经济发展不平衡是我国经济发展的一个重要特征，如何促进各地协调发展一直是我国经济建设的主要任务。随着社会主义市场经济的深入开展，作为现代经济的核心，金融发展对经济增长的作用日益重要，货币政策在促进区域经济协调发展方面的作用逐步显现出来。作为现代宏观经济最主要的政策手段之一的货币政策，主要是一种针对全国性的总量调节政策手段。从传统的区域经济发展政策来看，无论是我国还是国外，主要是以财政政策(主要是中央转移支付)、税收政策、产业政策和区域经济发展战略等为主。但是，由于各地区经济发展水平的不一致，各地区对同样的货币政策的反应往往并不相同，由此一定程度上导致了货币政策目标与效果的背离，降低了货币政策的有效性，不利于各地区经济的协调发展。因此，区域经济协调发展视角下的差异化货币政策研究，具有非常重要的理论意义和现实意义。
在对国内外研究文献仔细梳理的基础上，本项研究以我国区域经济金融发展不平衡这一客观事实为背景，通过分析各地经济发展的内在特征的分析，阐明当前我国各地区经济金融政策差异效果的内在机理，探讨差异性货币政策在促进我国各地区经济协调发展的必要性、可能性与充分性，对通过差异化货币政策促进区域经济协调发展进行了有益的理论探索。
第一章主要是对研究的背景、选题的意义和研究的目的进行了系统的介绍。首先，对我国各地经济发展不平衡的现状及其历史形成背景进行了介绍。在简要回顾由农业社会向工业社会转变的过程后指出，由洋务运动开启的工业化进程实际上加速了各地经济发展的差异会化特征，而建国之后，随着不同阶段的沿革，地区协调发展问题也经历了“计划经济均衡发展—改革开放东部快速发展—新世纪区域经济协调发展”不同发展阶段。如何在统一货币政策框架下，通过差异化政策手段及各种特定的政策操作，促进各地经济协调发展，具有非常重要的理论意义和现实意义。因此，本项研究以我国区域经济协调发展为出发点，以差异化货币信贷等金融政策为研究对象，以我国各区域性货币政策传导差异性和金融发展的差异性为切入点，将差异化货币政策与区域经济协调发展问题相结合，研究区域经济协调发展中的差异化货币政策问题。
第二章主要是进行了文献综述。我国区域经济发展的差异决定了各地金融结构和金融发展水平的差异，由此带来了货币政策效果上的差异，在具体表现上就是各地经济景气循环和通货膨胀的运行周期体现出非对称的特征。为此，首先对我国各地经济发展的差异性进行深入的研究，通过对各地资本存量、生产函数及全要素生产率的估计、以及潜在产出和产出缺口估计及其与通货膨胀的关系进行仔细的梳理，探求货币政策在各地表现差异性背后的经济学机理。我们还对货币政策传导渠道理论及货币政策传导机制的区域差异性问题进行了全面的概括，以对货币政策传导过程中的差异化环节得到清晰的认识。我们对货币政策传导机制最为主要的利率渠道、汇率渠道、资产组合渠道、信贷渠道等进行总结归纳。现有货币政策传导机制理论分析蕴涵的假设前提是区域经济、金融的同质性和统一性，缺乏对货币政策的区域非对称性研究。以最优货币区理论为基础的欧洲中央银行和欧元产生前后，欧洲中央银行统一货币政策是否会在成员国产生不一致的影响引起了较大关注，受这方面研究的影响和启发，因而对这方面的文献进行进一步归纳总结。
第三章对我国区域经济发展不平衡现状以及基于这种不平衡的通货膨胀（货币的经济表现）的差异性进行研究。这一章主要是通过理论探讨及对我国的实证分析，阐明我国各地区发展差异的经济原因，及由此导致的货币政策效果的区域性差异，从而说明差异化货币政策在区域经济协调发展中的重要性和必要性。
首先，以宏观经济增长理论为出发点，阐明了估算资本存量对于认识地区经济发展差异、开展基础性宏观经济分析具有非常重要的意义。通过对国外文献对资本存量估算方法的介绍和中国各省数据实际情况的整理，我们采用永续盘存法对各省资本存量进行了估计。在进行估计时，我们利用更为可靠的数据来源，对基年资本存量、当年实际投资数据、固定资产投资价格指数及折旧率等因素进行了仔细的讨论和计算，从而保证了对各省资本存量的估计更为可靠准确。我们还发现，资本存量的增长与经济的增长密切相关，而资本产出比率则与经济增长负相关，说明长期以来我国各地区经济增长仍然是以投资为主，经济增长需要大量的要素投入，特别是资本的投入，属于粗放型增长。这与经济理论及国内有关学者的研究结论相一致，说明我们的数据估计是比较可靠的，并为今后我国区域宏观经济分析和决策提供新的参考依据。
在资本存量估计的基础上，根据生产函数常规模不变的假设和柯布—道格拉斯人均生产函数形式，对1990年—2008年我国各省全要素生产率及其与经济增长的关系进行了相对准确的估计和较为严格的经验分析。结果表明，与成熟经济体相比，我国各省资本产出弹性是偏高的，这与我国目前经济增长大多是靠资本投入而非劳动和技术的贡献的经验是一致的。资本产出弹性与经济增长实际上呈现出负相关的关系，说明目前的经济增长方式仍然是以投资型外延增长方式为主，长期来看是不利于经济增长的。对各地区全要素生产率的估算表明，全要素生产率与经济增长密切相关，而且经济发展程度较高的东部地区各省全要素生产率要明显高于中西部地区，这说明东部发达地区在技术进步和制度环境上处于优势地位，为分析区域经济发展差异提供了一个新的视角。从政策的角度来看，在制定区域经济发展规划时，应充分考虑到不同省份的特点。对于中西部地区，不仅应加大基础设施建设，更应该加强公共教育、科学研究等方面的投入，促进发达地区向中西部技术转移，从而提高欠发展地区技术效率，提高其资源配置效率，从而实现不同地区的可持续协调发展。
最后，利用生产函数法对我国各省1990年—2008年潜在产出水平和产出缺口进行了合理的估计，考察了我国各地区实体经济运行差异及其与通货膨胀(货币的经济表现)的关系。计量分析表明，产出缺口与通货膨胀具有非常密切的关系，经济景气循环与产出缺口同样存在密切关系，产出缺口的表现可以解释各地经济发展的差异性和通货膨胀的不同走势，而这也对总量货币政策在各地表现的差异性提供了直接的理论基础。
第四章对我国最优货币区进行理论检验，并对我国统一的货币政策的区域性差异进行实证分析。首先以最优货币区的评判标准为基础，对我国是否是一个最优的货币区进行检验，从而讨论当前统一的货币政策的适应性及采取差异性货币政策以促进地区经济协调发展等问题。通过对经济金融发展一体化指标、经济开放度、产品多样性以及通货膨胀一致性等各项单项指标和复合指标的分析，指出目前我国各省市金融发展的差异性还是非常大的，我国并不是一个最优货币区，这也为实行差异化货币政策提供了依据。通过对欧元区各国的考察及与我国各地区实际情况的比较，可以发现在产出缺口和通货膨胀表现方面，我国各地的差异性较欧元区更大，而欧元区内部各国的差异性对于欧元的平稳运行具有非常重要的影响。在此基础上，以我国各省为样本，通过VAR等计量经济模型，对我国各地区货币政策传导效果的差异性进行实证分析。通过对货币政策在物价、经济增长和存款在不同地区传导的短期效果的比较，说明我国货币政策传导确实存在着区域差异性。通过对货币政策在各地传导效应的实证分析，发现货币政策在东部经济发达省市与中西地区的政策效果和政策反应速度存在着明显的差异，这与各地经济发展的程度密切相关。我们还通过对我国银行间货币市场资金流动状况以及总部经济对货币政策传导影响的考察，进一步说明了货币政策传导的区域效应。
第五章对我国差异化货币政策促进区域经济协调发展的实践进行了全面的分析。首先通过对我国金融发展和货币政策演进的历史回顾，指出了计划经济时期货币金融政策在促进各地协调发展中存在的局限，并对最近十多年来的信贷政策、差别准备金制度和利率政策等政策内涵及作用进行了全面的分析。在此基础上，结合最近十多年来，党中央、国务院对各地经济增长和区域经济协调发展问题的重视以及促进落后地区发展的具体战略，我国在西部大开发、东北老工业基地振兴、边疆地区经济发展以及中部崛起战略等各项战略决策的历史背景、差异化金融政策的具体安排及差异化货币金融政策的实际成效，以及其在实际执行中存在的问题，进行了全面的分析。
第六章在全面总结各章研究成果的基础上，就如何完善差异化货币政策，促进我国区域经济协调发展问题，提出了具体的政策建议。由于各地经济发展不均衡，统一货币政策在各地的传导效果必然存在着差异性，这就要求探索如何在保证政策原则的一致性前提下，适应各地经济发展不平衡的现状，构建全国统一货币政策差异化货币政策相结合的中央银行货币政策调控体系，进而保证货币政策调控的有效性，促进各地协调发展。为此，应该在货币政策目标、信贷政策、利率政策、差别准备金制度以及再贷款等方面，继续加大对落后地区的倾斜力度，探索新的政策操作手段，丰富差别货币政策执行手段，确保货币政策促进我国区域经济协调发展发挥切实有效的作用。
Developing divergence across areas is an important feature in China’s growth, and howto promote harmonic growth is a key issue in the economic task. With the social marketeconomy construction, the role of finance in the economic growth is more and more important,and the effects of monetary policy emerge during that process. Although traditionally, both inChina and other countries, the policies of promoting less developed areas growth are mainlyfiscal policy (e.g., central budget transfer), tax policy, industry policy and regionaldevelopment strategies. As one of the most important macro economic policy, monetarypolicy is of whole effect policy. While, as the differences of areas, monetary transmission isquite different across areas, which counter the effects of monetary policy, and is harmful tothe regional economy. So, to study the differential monetary policy under the regionalharmonic development is an important and meaningful issue. Based on the objective facts ofregional different development stage, we will demonstrate the mechanism of financialdifferent effects across regions; explore the necessity, probability and sufficiency of the roleof differential monetary policy in promoting regional harmonic development.
Chapter1introduces the background, topic selection and objectives of the research. First,we show the historical facts of regional differences as well as the status quo. After the briefretrospect of transformation from agriculture to industrial economy, we draw the conclusionthat the industrial efforts beginning at the mid1800s deepened the regional difference. Withthe new China, we pass through the planned economy, the first stage of reform and opennessafter1978and the period of new century. How to promote regional, esp. the less developedareas growth, is a big issue to the policy maker. And the research is quite meaningful andpractical. So, based on the objective facts of regional different development stage, to study theregional monetary policy and financial development differences, marrying the study ofmonetary policy and regional harmonic development, we will do our research on thedifferential monetary policy under the regional harmonic development.
Chapter2reviews the literatures. The differences of regional economy developmentdetermine the difference of financial structure and financial development, which brings outthe different effects of monetary policy. So, first we review the literature of economicdevelopment, including areas capital stock estimation, production function and total factorproductivity, as well as the estimation of potential output and the relationship with inflation.To study the monetary policy transmission effects, we review the literature of monetarytransmission theory with the interest rate channel, exchange rate channel, asset portfoliochannel and credit channel. The theory is based on the whole economy, so we analysis theregional effects of the monetary transmission. Of course, the optimal currency area theory andthe practice of the new currency of Euro is one of the best examples of one monetary areawith different transmission effects. So we explore the literature of optimal currency areatheory.
Chapter3we study the regional economic developmental differences and the differentialmonetary effects. Based on classical macro economy growth theory of Solow from the1950s,we study how different between different provincial economy growth and differentdevelopment stage. Only with clear recognize of regional economic growth, can we do bestresearch on the differential monetary policy. As a big economy, the cyclical economy isdifferent across areas, and most macro economic managements are based on developed areas,which is harmful to the less developed areas. So, it is urgent to study the differential monetaryeconomy and the policy adjustments. With more reliable statistics and methods, we estimatethe data of the capital stock of the base year, investment flow, capital stock deflator, anddepreciation. Then we estimate the provincial capital stock with the perceptual inventorymethod and find out that the growth of capital stock is closely related with the economicgrowth and the ratio of capital stock and output is negatively related with the economicgrowth, which is consistent with economic theory and other researcher’s findings. The resultsalso demonstrate that our estimation is accurate and credible, which are good foundations forfurther economic research.
With more reliable statistics and methods, we estimate the total factor productivity (TFP)from1990-2008. The Results show that the capital edacities are a little higher than matureeconomies and are negatively related with economic growth, which means the growth modelis still of extensive pattern, not of the intensive model. The TFP is closely related to economicgrowth, the advanced areas with high TFP, and the lagged areas with low TFP, which canexplain the divergence between areas. Then, the policy implications is to enhance the publiceducation and technology inputs in the middle and western areas, encourage the tech-transferfrom east to west, then promote the harmony growth in China.
Based on the outcomes of the last two parts, we can get the data of provincial total factorproductivity and estimate the provincial output and output gap from1990to2008. We findout that there is close relationship between output gap and inflation as well as the economicgrowth, which provide us the theoretical foundation of differential monetary policy promotingharmonic economic growth.
Chapter4analyzes the optimal currency theory and the fitness of China’s optimalcurrency area and concerns the regional effects of monetary policy transmission with vectorauto regression method. We investigate the criteria of optimal currency area with theindicators such as economic and financial development, economic openness, anddiversifications of production and coherence of inflation as well as the compound standards.After comparisons, we find out that China is still not an optimal currency area. Also, wecompare China with Euro area and find out the difference within China is much larger thanEuro areas, which means that it is necessary to implement differential monetary policiesacross areas. After that, with the provincial sample and VAR model, we analyze the shockeffects of monetary policy to the price, economic growth and deposits across different areas.We find out that there are obvious regional effects of monetary effects to different areas in theprice, growth and deposits, and the developed rich areas, such as coast east provinces aremore sensitive compared with the middle and west areas. We also explore the movements of money market funds and then show the regional effects of monetary transmission effectsacross countries.
Chapter5tells the story of practices of differential monetary policy promoting harmonicregional development. First we explore the traditional monetary policy, such as interest rates,re-loans and reserve policy. We point out the shortcomings of the interventions policies in theplanned period and analyze the positive effects and practices during recent decades. Then wedo cases study of differential monetary policies. With the strategies of promoting harmonicdevelopments across less developed areas, such as west development strategy, North Eastrevived strategy, border area development strategy, we introduce the background of thestrategies above and analyze in detail the cases of financial develop policies and the effects ofdifferential financial policies and economic growth.
The last chapter concludes the whole study and gives specific policy suggestions.Because of the regional imbalances in economic growth, the unite monetary policy must haveunique effects across different areas, so it is necessary to maintain differential policyimplementation with in the monetary framework and then promote the effectiveness ofmonetary policy, enhance the harmonic development. So, we should do better job on themonetary objectives, credit policy, interest policy, differential reserve policy and re-loanspolicies, and give better policy helps to the less developed areas, explore better policyimplementations, and make sure the better effects of monetary policy in the progress ofharmonic regional developments.
引文
1数据来源：《新中国五十五年统计资料汇编》，及作者的相关计算。
2参见王一鸣(2006)、南丁(2010)、亚夫(2011),等等。32004年，诺贝尔经济学奖得主访问中国时，被记者问及如何评价当时的宏观调控时，非常不客气地指出，在他看来，中国当时的政策并没有一项属于宏观调控，而都是微观干预。卢卡斯就是从总量角度上做出上述表示的。另请参见钱颖一，2005，《宏观调控不是市场监管》，《财经》第5期；吴敬琏，2004，《中国必须改善宏观调控》，在《中国经济时报》创刊十周年会议上的发言。
4即1791-1811年的美国第一银行和1816-1836年的美国第二银行。有关美联储建立前美国金融管理体系的情况，请参见Primm(1989)，项卫星(1993)。
5联邦储备体系的主要设计者Willis甚至认为政治因素起了很大的作用。有关FED建立过程历史方面的文献，另请参见Primm(1989)。
6例如，对Phillips曲线一个很重要的问题是需要正确构造通胀预期且不能遗漏掉影响通胀的任何变量(这几乎不可能)，因而很多经济学家都批评Phillips曲线已经死亡，如Atkeson and Ohanian (2001)，产出和就业的周期变化对于Okun定律的产出和失业缺口有着显著的影响，而且当面临经济非预期的结构性冲击(如1970年代的石油危机)时，Okun定律几乎不起任何作用，如Altig, Fitzgerald, and Rupert (1997), Rudebusch (2000)，Groshen and Potter (2003)。
7这也是有的年份这两列数据的值相差不大的原因，因此对于后面计算部分省份(如海南、重庆、西藏)固定资本形成数据缺少年份则以全社会固定资产投资数据近似替代。
12《新帕尔格雷夫货币金融大辞典》(第三卷)，第77页，经济科学出版社2000年第一版。
13盛松成，2011,《社会融资总量的内涵及实践意义》，中国人民银行，www.pbc.gov.cn,2月17日。
14周正庆，1993，《中国货币政策研究》，中国金融出版社。
151993年7月，国家开始对过热的经济进行宏观调控，对混乱的金融秩序进行了严厉的整治，其中一项重要的内容就是清查金融机构的贷款情况。
16这期间我国金融管理体制发生了根本的改变发挥了非常重要的作用。1995年，我国颁布了《中国人民银行法》和《商业银行法》，规定中央银行不得直接“对政府财政进行透支，不得直接认购、包销国债和其它政府债券”、“不得向地方政府、各级政府部门提供贷款”，贷存比不得超过75%，按照巴塞尔协议的要求，商业银行资本充足度应达到8%。应该说，当前我国的金融业主要框架就是在1990年代中期建立的，并随着2003年国有商业银行股份制改造而不断完善。
17张晓慧，2011，《国际收支顺差条件下货币政策工具的选择、使用和创新》，www.pbc.gov.cn,3月24日。
18有关我国公开市场操作的详细情况，可参见《中国的公开市场操作》，《中国人民银行2002年第四季度货币政策执行报告》及戴根有(2003)、孙国峰(2003a,b)。
19《中央银行票据》，《中国人民银行2003年第二季度货币政策执行报告》。
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