摘要
在经济全球化加速发展的背景下，中东欧转型国家经历了大规模国际直接投资(以下称FDI)的流入。基于中东欧转型国家独特的经济背景和发展路径，流入这些国家的FDI，在行业分布上具有与其他发展中国家截然不同的特点。FDI的流入为中东欧转型国家提供了重要的资本来源，同时对产出结构、就业结构、贸易结构和经济增长均产生了重大影响。本文主要研究中东欧国家FDI与产业结构的关系。在对FDI促进产业结构转变的理论和机制分析的基础上，利用大量数据对FDI进入中东欧国家的决定因素、中东欧产业结构的变化、以及FDI进入与经济增长的关系进行了实证检验，最后得出相关结论。
2008年美国次贷危机引发的全球性金融危机对中东欧国家经济发展产生深刻影响，部分中东欧国家成为这次金融危机的重灾区。本文在占有最新资料和统计数据的基础上，对该地区金融部门特别是银行业FDI与信贷增长和宏观经济稳定的关系进行了比较深入的分析，并提出了自己的观点。
本文提出了以下主要观点：
1、无论是从产出还是就业角度看，中东欧国家已经进入服务经济占主导的发展阶段。中东欧国家劳动密集型产品的比较优势正在逐步丧失。而技术密集型产品的生产正在逐步获得优势。
2、制造业FDI比重的上升对经济增长的作用并不显著。作为制造业重要的中间投入品，服务业特别是金融服务业FDI比重的上升对经济增长有显著的促进作用。中东欧国家的FDI能够显著促进其产出结构的升级，即制造业产出比例不断下降，而服务业产出比例显著提高。同时流入这些国家的FDI的部门分布结构对其产业结构的影响作用最大，具体来说，制造业FDI占比的提高显著降低了制造业的产出比例，而服务业FDI占比的提高显著提高了服务业的产出比例。中东欧国家的附加值增长可以分解为产业结构效应和产业自身成长效应，无论是在制造业还是服务业，产业的自身成长效应都是主导经济增长的主要因素，服务业的两种效应均为正，制造业产业自身成长效应为正，产业结构效应为负，反映了产业结构向服务业占主导的趋势演变。
3、FDI的流入对扩大就业规模并没有显著作用，但是却能够造成就业结构的改变，即增加服务业就业比重，降低制造业就业比重。就业结构的高级化与扩大就业规模之间并没有必然的联系。
4、外资银行的进入增加了这些国家信贷资源的供给，拓宽了东道国的融资渠道。银行部门存在的大量FDI以及金融自由化政策使中东欧国家金融一体化程度加深，提高了该地区在全球特别是在西欧市场的股权和债权融资能力，造成许多国家经常项目赤字规模的扩大。特别是很多国家积累了过度的外债规模，以及债务中币种结构带来的巨大外汇风险，这些都构成中东欧国家宏观经济发展中的巨大隐患，成为美国金融危机爆发后该地区发生金融危机的主要原因。
本文共分八章，各章的主要内容如下：
导言部分介绍了本文选题的理论意义和现实意义，并对论文的研究方法、结构和主要内容、创新和不足之处做了说明。
第一章为文献综述。对FDI与产业结构升级的经典理论、FDI促进产业结构升级的影响变量以及产业结构升级的条件进行了系统的归纳和评述。
第二章研究了中东欧国家FDI流入的决定因素。本章既研究了中东欧国家FDI流入的一般因素，也对其作为转型国家吸引FDI流入的特殊因素进行了分析。同时由于该地区吸收的FDI主要来源于欧盟老成员国，因此本章研究了欧盟内部经济一体化背景下，欧盟新老成员国之间的税收竞争与资本流动的关系。
第三章主要对FDI与产业结构演进的机制和理论进行研究。从产业结构演进的基本模型出发，利用FDI与产业结构升级的理论框架，并在模型分析的基础上总结出FDI促进产业结构升级的机制。
第四章是对中东欧国家转轨以来的经济发展和结构变化进行了分析，重点探讨了这些国家的经济附加值、生产率、就业、贸易等经济指标的总量和结构变化。最后，以汽车产业为例，分析了FDI对产业重组和产业发展的作用。
第五章对中东欧国家FDI与产出结构、经济增长的关系进行了实证分析。本章按技术(知识)含量进行分类，实证分析了FDI的技术结构与生产率、经济增长的关系。
第六章主要对中东欧国家FDI与就业规模和就业结构的关系进行了实证分析。并对经济增长中出现的就业停滞现象进行阐释。
第七章研究了银行部门FDI对信贷资源配置和宏观经济金融稳定的影响。在回顾银行部门FDI对东道国影响的理论后，研究了FDI对中东欧国家信贷资源配置的影响。本章的最后一部分分析了该地区的经常帐户赤字与外债规模和金融危机的关系。
第八章对全文进行了总结，并对中国吸收FDI提出了自己的看法。
Under the backgroud of accerlating globalization,Central and Eastern Europeancountries (CEEs) have gone through large scale Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)inflow,which has unique sectoral distribution due to its special economy backgroundand development paths.FDI has been an important source of capital formation,meanwhile it has profound impact on the structure of output,employment,trade aswell as economic growth.This dissertation focus on studying the relationship betweenFDI,industrial structure and economic growth.Based on the evolution theory,Ⅰanalyze the determinants of FDI inflow in CEEs,then analyze the industrialdevelopment and the relationship between FDI and ecomomic development.
In 2008 the global financial crisis had profound impact on CEEs,crisis broke outin some countries.Based on the latest data,Ⅰanalyze the relationship between FDI inbanking sector and macro-economic stability,and present my personal opinion.Themain conclusions are as following:
1.No matter from the output and employment perspective,CEEs has entered in thestage where service industry plays the dominant role.CEEs' comparative advantagein labor intensive products has faded off,while the technology intensive products hasgained comparative advantage.
2.The increase of FDI in manufacturing industry does not contribute obviouslyto economic growth.As an important intermediary products FDI in service industryespecially in financial industry plays an important role in promoting economic growth.FDI indeed contributed a lot to the upgrading of industrial structure,in particular,thesectoral distribution of inward FDI has large impact on industrial structure.
3.Inflow of FDI does not boost the scale of employment but alters the structure ofemployment,that is increasing the share of service employment and decreasing theshare of manufacturing employment.The upgrading of employment structure does notnecessarily leads to the increase of sale of employment.
4.The entry of foreign banking increase the credit supply,and broaden thesources of financing for host countries.The large amount of FDI and the financialliberalization process improves the international financial integration of CEEs,whichimprove the financing ability of CEEs.The result is most of the countries hasincreased their foreign debt and current account deficit scale,which,combined with the mismatch of currency,has caused huge risk for CEEs.
There are 8 chapters in total,the basic structure are as following:
The Introduction part explains the meaning of the theme and introduced theresearch method,main contents,contribution and shortcomings of the dissertation.
Chapter 1 is the review of literature,which includes the industrial evolutiontheory,the conditions and other variables that affect industrial upgrading.
Chapter 2 analyzed the determinants of FDI in CEEs,including the ordinaryfactor and the unique factor related with transition.Since most of the inward FDIcome from the old EU member countries,this chapter also analyzes the taxcompetition effect on FDI within a theoretical frame.
Chapter 3 sortes the basic theory related with FDI and industrial evolution.Fromthe basic model of industrial evolution,then introduces FDI and industrial evolution,based on these models,Ⅰdraw the six mechanisms through which FDI contributes tothe upgrading of industrial evolution.
Chapter 4 analyzes the development and changes in industrial structure in CEEssince transition,focusing on analysis of value-added,labor productivity,employment,trade and other economic indicators.In the last part of this chapter,Ⅰtake autoindustry as an example and analyze the effect of FDI on industrial restructuring andindustrial development.
Chapter 5 analyzes empirically of FDI on output structure and FDI on economicgrowth.In this chapter,FDI is classified according to their technology intensity.AndⅠanalyze the relationship between the technology structure of FDI with the laborproductivity and economic growth.
Chapter 6 analyze the relationship between FDI and employment,and explainsthe phenomenon where economic growth is couples with stagnant employmentgrowth.
Chapter 7 studies the effect of banking sector FDI on credit resource allocationand macro economic stability.The last part analyzes the scale of current accountdeficit and foreign debt and their relationship with the crisis.
Chapter 8 concludes the whole dissertation and presented my personal suggestionfor China in attracting FDI.
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