摘要
全球气候恶化与资源匮乏已经成为不争的事实。为了保护人类赖以生存的环境，世界各国举行了多次的能源环境会议，并取得了一定的成果。从1992年《联合国气候变化公约》中的减少全球50%温室气体排放的目标，到2005年人类以法律形式限制温室气体排放的《京都议定书》的制定，到2007年的“巴厘岛路线图”，再到2009年轰轰烈烈的哥本哈根全球气候峰会的召开，以及2012年多哈气候大会的顺利闭幕，无不体现人类在环境问题上意识和行动的进步。
美国一向对低碳经济持不温不火的态度，但是奥巴马总统上台以后情况有所变化，不但在国际上充当“领袖”，而且积极投身于低碳经济的建设。2009年，奥巴马总统积极参加了哥本哈根会议，并在国内宣布全面废除布什政府消极的气候政策，同时，通过颁布《美国复苏与再投资法案》，使低碳发展项目成为经济刺激计划中的重要一部分。2012年11月，奥巴马总统的成功连任，某种意义上被视为低碳经济的胜利。然而，表面现象的改变将引发更深层次的思考：美国低碳经济政策出现的这种趋势性转向的原因是什么？国内国外的因素是否可以完全解释美国低碳经济政策的转向原因？是否有更深层次的原因主导着美国低碳经济政策的趋势和变化？转向后，也就是奥巴马总统第一任期内的四年中，美国低碳经济的政策定位和经济绩效如何？
根据上述分析逻辑与路径，论文主体部分的主要内容如下：
第一章绪论部分一般性地介绍了研究的背景及意义、文献综述、拟解决的问题、创新点和研究方法等内容。其中，在文献综述部分，对美国低碳经济政策作了较为详细的考察。
第二章是低碳经济政策的相关理论问题及论文架构。在界定低碳经济政策内涵及结合低碳经济相关分析理论基础上，提出分析美国低碳经济政策转向原因的“三层级”分析框架。
第三章通过对美国近几届政府的低碳经济政策的历史演进研究，发现美国低碳经济政策从奥巴马总统执政开始出现了积极倾向。
第四章到六章分别从国际的激励与约束、国内的激励与约束、国家发展战略角度三个层面对美国低碳经济政策转向的原因进行探析。认为国际层面和国内层面决定了政策转向趋势，而这种积极的趋势正是因为迎合了危机之后美国国家的发展战略调整，而得以实施与制定。
第七章从对外政策和对内政策对美国低碳经济政策转向后的政策定位和内容给予探讨。认为美国低碳经济政策分为对外层面和对内层面。对外层面，包括国际合作、国际融资、碳关税三个方面。对内层面，包括应对气候变化、加强能源安全、清洁能源、清洁汽车和建筑以及排放权交易五个方面。
第八章对奥巴马执政以来美国低碳经济政策的经济绩效进行考量。发现虽然没有通过全局性的《2009清洁能源与安全法案》，但是美国在低碳经济方面却在默默的行动着，并且成效已经突显。
第九章对美国未来，亦或说长期以来碳减排的阻力进行了分析，对奥巴马第二任期内美国低碳经济政策做出了预判，并在此基础上给出了中国的应对方案。
通过分析，得出以下主要结论：
首先，美国低碳经济政策的转向源自于国际国内两方面的激励与约束。其中国际原因主要是：国际舆论和减排的压力；欧日等国低碳经济强进的发展对美国构成了威胁；国际制度条件和国际碳市场条件的日趋完善为美国低碳经济发展提供了有力的平台。国内原因，主要是政治上的党政斗争、利益集团博弈和地方“自下而上”的推动，以及经济上的寻求新的增长点、极端气候成本和能源结构风险等因素。
其次，美国低碳经济政策的转向绝不单单只由国际和国内两方面因素所驱动，实际上还有一层原因是低碳经济政策的转向趋势正好迎合了金融危机后美国国家发展战略的调整。因此，三方主体共同博弈，最终形成了美国低碳经济政策的转向及后续的发展。
最后，美国低碳经济政策转向积极以后，即奥巴马执政的第一任期内，效果已经开始凸显。在碳减排方面，美国碳排放总量、部门碳排放量、以及按能源种类划分的排放量较之前历届政府出现了较大的下降趋势。在能源结构方面，总能源消费量出现明显下降趋势，其中煤和石油的消费量首现降低趋势，可再生能源和核能呈上升趋势，页岩气革命更是为美国带来了巨大的能源供给。在低碳技术和产业方面，清洁能源专利激增，低碳技术利用率较高，新能源产业投入不断加大并发展迅速。在碳交易方面，碳市场稳健发展，区域碳交易成果显著，加州等已经开始启动碳排放权交易。综合以上，美国的石油对外依存度2009年开始首降至50%以下，能源独立性增强；同时绿色就业数量已达到300万/年。
It is an indisputable fact because of the deterioration of the global climate and scarceresources. A number of energy and environment conferences have been held by manycountries in order to protect human living environment. These meetings have alreadymade certain achievements. We can see great progress in human consciousness onenvironmental issues according to several conventions, they are as follows.“AmericanRecovery and Reinvestment Act” was signed in1992holding the target of the reductionof global greenhouse gas emissions by50%.“Kyoto Protocol” was agreed in the formof law to limit greenhouse gas emissions in2005.“Bali Island Road Map” was drawn upin2007. The Copenhagen climate summit in Doha was held in2009, and it is said thatthis conference is a successfully climate conference.
It is well known that the United States has a lukewarm attitude towards the lowcarbon economy, but the situation has changed since President Obama came to power.Nowadays the United States not only acts as a leader in the world, but also activelyparticipates in the construction of low carbon economy. President Obama took an activepart in the Copenhagen Conference in2009, and then announced the abolition of Bushgovernment's negative climate policy nationwide. The low carbon development projectsgradually become an important part of the economic stimulus plan through thepromulgation of “American Recovery and Reinvestment Act”. It is regarded as of thevictory of low carbon economy due to President Obama's re-election in November,2012.However, the surface changes provoke deeper thinking: what is the reason why thelow-carbon economy policy of the United States is modified? Whether the domestic andforeign factors can explain the reason? If there are other more profound reasons leadingto the convert of American low carbon economy policy? What performance has achievedduring President Obama's first four years?
According to the analysis of such logic and path, the main content of the thesis areas follows:
Introduction introduces the background and significance of the research, literaturereview, the problems to be solved, innovation, and research methods. The literature review section detailed investigates the reason why the policy is changed, the policyorientation and effect of America low-carbon economic.
Chapter2is the theories of low carbon economic policy and the structure of thethesis. This part puts forward the framework of "three game theory" in order to analyzeAmerica low carbon economic policy on the basis of the definition and combination oflow carbon economy.
Chapter3finds that a positive tendency of America low carbon economic policyappears from President Obama through the research on the historical evolution of lowcarbon economic policy of recent governments of the United States.
Chapter4，5and6make a thorough inquiry of the reason from three aspects. Theyare domestic and international incentive and constraint, American national developmentstrategy. It points that the domestic and international perspectives determine the policytendency, and this positive tendency is formulated and implemented in accordance withAmerican national development strategy after the crisis.
Chapter7gives an inquiry in the policy status and contents from the foreign policyand the domestic policy of the United States. It points that America low carbon economicpolicy is composed of two parts. They are the external side and the internal side. On onehand, the external side includes four aspects. They are international cooperation,international financing, carbon tariffs, and carbon pricing. On the other hand, the internalside includes five aspects. They are climate change, strengthen energy security, cleanenergy, clean cars and buildings and emissions trading.
Chapter8studies the economic performance since Obama administration. It findsthat America silently operations in the low carbon economy achieved significant results,although “Clean Energy and Security Act of2009” is not adopted wholly.
Chapter9analyzes the resistance of carbon emission in current and future situation.It makes a prediction of American low carbon economic policy in Obama's second term,and then gives some coping strategies for china.
Through the above analysis, the following conclusions are drawn.
Firstly, American low carbon economic policy is changed because of foreign anddomestic incentive and constraint. The foreign reasons are as follows: the internationalpublic opinion and emission reduction pressure; a threat from the development of low carbon economy in Europe and Japan; international institution and international carbonmarket conditions; a powerful platform provided by America low carbon economicdevelopment. Domestic reasons are as follows: the political party struggle; the gamebetween interest groups; local “bottom-up”; a new economic growth point; extremeclimate cost and risky factors in energy structure.
Secondly, the deep reason is the change of American national development strategyafter the crisis, not only the foreign and domestic factors. The transformation ofAmerican low carbon economy policy is in line with the United States climate securitystrategy, energy security strategy, competitive strategy and the “smart power” strategy,and the national development strategy further decides the orientation and content ofAmerican low carbon economy.
Finally, the effect of American new low carbon economy is obvious in the first termof the Obama administration. The total carbon emissions, carbon department emissionsand carbon emissions according to the energy classification have been reduced greatlythan previous governments. In terms of energy structure, the total energy consumptiondeclines obviously, it is the first time that the consumption of coal and oil decreases, theuse of renewable energy and nuclear power is on the rise, and shale gas revolution bringshuge energy supply for the United States.
In the aspect of low carbon technology and industry, clean energy patents aresurging, the utilization rate is higher in low carbon technology, and the new energyindustrial investment continues and become strong. In the carbon trading, the carbonmarket is in a steady development, and regional carbon trading has gained remarkableachievements. California has begun to start the transaction of carbon emissions. We findit is the first time that the ratio of America’s dependence on foreign oil began to decreaseby50%, so the energy independence enhanced; and at the same time the greenemployment quantity reached3000000per year.
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