摘要
转型时期中国居民居住消费快速增长,住宅／住房的消费与投资也成为一个重要支出事项。然而近些年来居住消费领域一直存在价格过高、投资波动、消费不振等问题,它们已经成为制约中国居住消费发展的重大障碍；另一方面,在房产次贷危机引发的全球经济危机影响尚存的今日,通过刺激居住消费需求带动经济回暖,具有重要的现实意义。
本文尝试在收入增长、需求分化、资本深化的转型背景下,在理论分析的基础上,进一步利用中国居住消费的相关实证数据,对城乡居民居住消费决策的诸多问题作出剖析。主要探讨了三方面问题：(1)利用可获得的统计数据,依据现代消费理论,深入研究了影响中国城乡居民居住消费的主要因素,并进而构建了中国宏观居住消费函数。(2)尝试性建立居住地、工作地决策与资产选择同时决定的一般性理论框架,并进行数值模拟,探讨均衡状态下居民居住消费决策的多种可能性。(3)引入“需求分化”和“资本深化”因素,同时考虑收入增长的经济基本面因素,利用相关统计数据,考查转型时期中国住宅价格的决定问题。
本文采用理论分析与实证分析相结合的研究方法,对转型时期中国居民居住消费决策的几个重要问题做了深入、细致的研究工作,获得一些有启发性和参考价值的结论。
在中国宏观居住消费函数构建方面,实证分析表明：(1)转型时期中国城乡居民(特别是城镇居民)居住消费基本不能用完全消费保险假设来解释而能较好地适用持久性收入／生命周期理论。引入城乡差异因素一定程度上改善了城镇居民的估计结果,但对农村居民居住消费行为模式的影响不显著。(2)当期收入和持久性收入构成转型时期影响中国城乡居民居住消费的主要因素。进一步的实证结果表明,城乡之间的居民居住消费模式具有一定差异,农村居民居住消费较多地受当期收入变动的影响而城镇居民更多地受持久性收入影响。加入城乡差异因素后,对城镇居民的居住消费模式并没有太多影响,却增加了持久性收入假说对农村居民居住消费模式的解释力。(3)“房改”因素,对城镇居民居住消费函数产生一定影响。受其影响,城镇居民居住消费开始相对更多地受当期收入的影响。
在居住地、工作地决策与资产选择同时决定问题上,获得一些基本结果：(1)最优住房服务与其它消费的比例由它们各自分享比例的“价值”所决定,最优住房服务的“价值”正好等于其分享比例与当期收入的乘积。(2)居住地与工作地不一致所导致的交通费用,并不对家庭买房或租房决策产生实质影响,但它会对买房或租房的实际发生地(或城区或郊区)产生影响。(3)“资本劳动比”对解释城区郊区房价差异及城区郊区工资率差异具有重要作用。(4)均衡状态下居民居住消费决策具有多种可能性,包括：城区的高居住成本,将促使人们将居住地从城区往郊区迁移；尽管住在郊区的居住成本较低,但综合考察各因素(特别是工资、交通费用等)后大多数人仍选择住在城区；加进“所有者”家庭后,“出租人”的住房服务水平下降了,并且随着时间的进展,原先的“所有者”可转化成“出租人”；加进“所有者”家庭后,与只有“出租人”时的情形相比,家庭居住消费选择行为发生巨大变化,即此时大多数人选择住在郊区。
在引入收入增长、需求分化与资本深化等重要的转型变量对中国住宅价格的决定问题加以考察后发现：(1)引入这两类不同的消费者后,随着“投资／投机型”(B类)消费者的比重每提高1%,城市房价将提高0.3%以上；“保守型”(A类)消费者在总人口中的比重提高,房价会相应地降低；此外,B类消费者转化为A类消费者对房价的抑制作用要大于A类消费者转化为B类消费对房价的推动作用。(2)经济基本面对住宅价格具有重要影响。从实证结果看,作为经济基本面因素的GDP、“城乡居民储蓄年末余额”等对房价都有一个正的促进作用。(3)资本深化条件下的城乡房价差异问题可以用城乡“资本劳动比”进行部分解释。简单的实证结果表明：城乡资本劳动比差异与城乡房价差异具有一定联系。
在已有研究成果的基础上,本文的创新点可以概括为以下几个方面：
第一,力图将居住消费决策中的“资产选择模型”与“工作地决策模型”融为一体用于解释居住地、工作地决策与资产选择同时决定问题,是本文取得的主要理论贡献。
第二,关于影响中国居民居住消费的因素分析以及引入住宅的两类需求者对中国城市住宅价格的决定问题作出实证研究在一些方面弥补了国内居住消费决策研究的空白。
第三,基于实证分析的结果,所提出的激励性居住消费政策、对策具有较强的应用价值。
During the transition period, China's residential consumption has grown rapidly; housing consumption and investment spending have also become an important matter. In recent years, however, there have been high residence prices, investment fluctuations and stagnant consumption and other issues, which have become a major obstacle to China's development of residential consumption. On the other hand, in the global economic crisis (which triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis), by stimulating consumption demand, driving the economy rebounding has important practical significance.
In the context of transition (such as income growth, demand differentiation, capital deepening), this paper attempts to analyse the Chinese residential consumption decision-making by using China consumption-related empirical data. Mainly discusses the three aspects:(1) using available statistical data, the paper study the major factors which will affect the residential consumption of China's urban and rural residents, and thus to build China's macro-residential consumption function; (2) a trial to establish an assets choice and residential and job location decision-making model, by the method of numerical simulation to explore the possibilities of a variety of residential consumption decision-making; (3) the introduction of income growth, demand differentiation and capital deepening factors to examine the determination of China's housing price.
By theoretical analysis and empirical analysis methods, the paper foucus on several important issues in residential consumption decision-making. Here are the main conclusions:
About China's residential consumption function, empirical analysis shows that:(1) China's residence consumption (specially, the urban residents) cannot be explained by the complete market model and can better apply the permanent income and life cycle hypothesis (PILCH) model. The introduction of rural-urban differences that to some extent improved the estimation results for urban residents; but for rural residents, the impact of consumer behavior patterns are not significant; (2) the consumption patterns and consumption functions are different for urban and rural residents. Further empirical results show that the consumption of rural residents is more affected to the changes of the current income, while the urban residents are more influenced by the persistent income. Add the factor of urban-rural differences, which is not affect the consumption of urban residents, but an explanatory power increase of PILCH to rural residents; (3) "Housing Reform" take effect to the urban residents by giving more explanatory power to the current income.
On the assets choice and residential and job location decision-making issue, obtaining some basic results:(1) the optimal housing service "value" exactly equal to its sharing ratio product current revenue; (2) transport costs caused by the inconsistency of residential location and job location, which can't determine buying a house or renting a house, but will have an impact on where (in urban area or rural area) to make the decision; (3) "Capital-labor ratio" plays an important role on the housing price differences and the wage rate differences between the urban area and rural area; (4) equilibrium simulation shows the possibilities of a variety of residential consumption decision-making, such as internal migration between the urban area and rural area and identity swapping between the "renters" and the "owners".
The introduction of income growth, demand differentiation and capital deepening factors, we find:(1) for the two types of consumers, when the "investors/ speculators"(B-type consumers) increase of 1%, the urban housing price will increase 0.3%; when the "conservatives"(A-type consumers) increase, the urban housing prices will decrease; and the B-type consumers have more impact on housing price; (2) economic fundamentals have an important influence on housing prices. From the empirical results, economic fundamentals have a positive role in promoting house prices; (3) under the condition of capital deepening, the differences of urban-rural "capital labor ratio" can partly explain the differences of urban-rural housing price.
Based on the existing research results, the innovation of this paper can be summarized in the following areas:
First, trying to create a link between the "portfolio selection model" and "residential and job location decision-making model", and using it to explain the simultaneously determined on portfolio selection and job location decision-making, which is the main theoretical contribution of the paper.
Second, the building of China's macro-residential consumption function and the empirical research in the determination of China's housing price, in some respects, fill a gap in domestic research.
Third, based on the empirical results, the proposed residential consumption policy will be incentive and has a strong application value.
引文
①参见臧旭恒、王立平：《消费资本资产定价理论：回顾与评述》,《产业经济评论》,2006年第2期。
②参见戴维·罗默：《高级宏观经济学》(第二版),上海财经大学出版社2003年版,P299-301。
①参见So, Kim S., Peter F. Orazem and Daniel M. Otto. The Effects of Housing Prices, Wages, and Commuting Time on Joint Residential and Job Location Choices[J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics,2001, (83):1036-1048.
①参见Campbell, John Y. and Joao F. Cocco. How Do House Prices Affect Consumption? Evidence from Micro Data[R].NBER Working Paper,2005, No.11534.
①弹性测算的具体结果可参阅吴炜峰、杨蕙馨：《转型时期我国城乡居民居住消费收入弹性研究》,《产业经济评论》,2008年第3期。
①本部分内容可参阅杨蕙馨、吴炜峰：《居住消费升级与产业发展的相关性分析》,《经济学动态》,2009年第4期。
①参见http://blog.soufun.com/13065557/1648380/articledetail.htm。
①参见高鸿业：《西方经济学》,中国人民大学出版社1996年版,P343。
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