摘要
随着改革开放的深入,中国经济的开放程度不断提高,外商直接投资已经成为拉动中国经济增长的重要动力之一。鉴于外商直接投资已经成为中国投资的重要来源之一,对中国经济的增长产生了重要作用,本文在总结外国直接投资理论模型的基础上,针对外商直接投资的重要性,对外商直接投资在中国经济增长中的作用机制进行深入的分析。
本文主要对外商直接投资对中国经济增长的影响机制进行了经验分析和实证检验,其中主要进行了外商直接投资对国内投资的“挤出效应”的检验。在对中国省际经济增长以及国际收支之间关系的经验分析中,本文主要使用了面板数据方法分析、Granger因果关系检验以及均衡关系检验等,发现了外商直接投资与中国经济发展之间的内在关联机制和经验证据。
本文认为,外商直接投资对国内投资产生了显著影响,并通过技术水平、人力资本以及制度变革等经济变量影响了经济增长水平;外商直接投资自身的增加也会引起总投资的增加,而总投资的增加可以直接对经济增长产生贡献;尤其在投资乘数的作用下,投资增加会引起产出倍数的增加,因此投资波动经常被认为是经济周期波动的主要来源。检验和分析也表明,外国经济增长促进了中国的经济增长,中国与国际经济发展的关联性正在加强。
The function of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in host country’s economic growth has always been important in modern economic growth theory. As an important way of international capital flow, FDI plays an important role in one country’s economic growth and the conduction of international economic fluctuation. At present, main international financial institutions and economic organizations all have the statistics and specific researches on FDI. FDI theory is elaborated in Macroeconomics and Investment Theory, empirical researches of FDI’s impacts and performance have also been improved a lot, the economic proofs of FDI’s performance are found and special empirical methods are also developed. The dissertation researches the impact of FDI on the economic growth of China statistically and empirically, using the method of theoretical and experimental analyzes, theoretical assumption and empirical test, comparison and generalization analyzes, logical study and statistic simulation. The dissertation tries to get the revelation for China’s economic policy and makes policy suggestions.
First, main issues of the research are clarified, and the effects of the researches on economic forecast and analyze are introduced. Second, the impact mechanism of FDI on China’s trans-provincial economic growth and the generation mechanism of the demand for FDI are depicted and analyzed, FDI’s“technology spill over effect”on China’s industry structure and the“crowding out effect”on domestic investment are researched, the performance of FDI is measured and tested, the causal relation between FDI and domestic production is analyzed and described. In the end, literature review of the above three issues are made.
Based on the combination of theoretical study, policy research and empirical evidences, some theoretical assumptions and“Stylized facts”can be concluded. The dissertation contains six chapters. The main contents are as follows.
First, the dissertation analyzes the theoretical model of FDI’s generation mechanism and impact mechanism from the perspective of micro-level of FDI’s demand, and mainly introduces the theoretical assumption of FDI’s emergence, the comparative advantage theory, the technology advancement theory, and the resource and market model of FDI. Then, literature review of FDI is made.
Second, the economy of China develops fast with less fluctuation, and the business cycle is getting indistinct and weakened. The fluctuation of macro economy deeply emerges with long term economic growth. The growth rate of China’s economy mainly depends on the growth rate of domestic investment. The fluctuation of investment is extremely important in economic fluctuation. Domestic investment which has the most closed relation with FDI is the key point of research in chapter 3. In this chapter, the inter-action between domestic and foreign investment is examined. The dissertation measures and describes the business cycle and fluctuation of China’s domestic investment, analyzes the main reasons of the fluctuation, and researches the inter-relations between FDI and domestic investment using Granger model. The dissertation also describes and tests the fluctuation mechanism of FDI and domestic investment using Heteroscedasticity model, which enriches the empirical proof of FDI’s“crowding out effect”or“crowding in effect”on domestic investment. In the end, the performance of FDI and domestic investment is compared, and the“crowding out effect”of FDI on China’s domestic investment is analyzed. From the tests, it can be easily found that the rate of return of FDI is much higher than that of domestic investment in China, and the transfer of international capital which are mainly caused by FDI among high capital return areas is the important proof of the convergence of economic development. Simultaneously, enterprises which receive FDI have advantages in technology and products, they can get monopoly revenue through market pricing, which is the pre-condition of the“technology spill over effect”.
Third, the direction of FDI capitals depends on the international capital flow, and the inter-action between FDI and deposits of host country can be confliction . In the beginning of the fourth chapter, the relation of China’s domestic deposit and international capital flow is analyzed. On the one hand, the international capital inflows can be supplement of the domestic investment; on the other hand, it can crowd out the host country’s domestic deposit and has crowding out effects on domestic investment. Then, the impacts of domestic deposit on international investment and FDI are tested. The direction and amount of international capital flow has profound impacts on one country’s economic development. Further more, the dissertation analyzes the interaction between FDI and international capital flow, describes and analyzes the relation of exchange rate and FDI by constructing the exchange rate variable model. Because the production factors of FDI have close relations with international capital flow and international trade, the description and research of the impacts of exchange rate fluctuations on FDI is of great importance.
Fourth, FDI in China grows rapidly since the adoption of the“Reform and Open Policy”, and FDI has far-reaching impacts on China’s economic development. The imbalance development of different districts in China not only causes the distortion of investment among provinces, but also makes the location of FDI centralized. The dissertation analyzes the impacts of FDI on China’s provincial economic development using panel data model with data of 30 provinces in China.
引文
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