摘要
密云水库是北京市目前唯一的地表饮用水水源地,近年来面临着水体富营养化的威胁。研究表明在点源污染已经得到有效控制的情况下,非点源污染已经上升为密云水库水质污染的主要来源,如不及时采取有力的措施势必引起水质持续恶化。因此,如何有效地控制密云水库流域的非点源污染关系到北京市的饮水安全和经济社会的可持续发展。同时,北京市具有地位重要、城市化程度高、人口众多等特点,因此探讨和解决困扰北京市多年的地表饮用水水源地水质恶化的问题,是对“水和城市和谐”、“人水和谐”等新思想、新理念的科学实践,也是对“在开源节流的同时保护现有的清洁水源不受污染”这一解决地区性缺水问题思路的科学实践。
本文以集水区管理、点源和非点源联合控制、土地利用和管理、多屏障方法、水源保护规划等水源地保护的理论和方法为基础,以GIS技术为依托,在密云水库上游流域建立了基于物理机制的分布式水文模型SWAT,对密云水库水源地的水源保护进行研究。全文共八章,可以分为四个部分。第一部分包括第一章和第二章,对非点源污染模拟进行综述并介绍了SWAT模型的基本原理和最新进展;第二部分包括第三章和第四章,简要地介绍了研究区概况,重点论述了SWAT模型构建、率定和验证等;第三部分包括第五章、第六章和第七章,主要借助于SWAT模型和GIS技术探讨水源地保护的途径;第四部分为第八章,即结论和建议。得到如下主要结论:
(1)建立了日照时数与辐射日值的相关关系、利用SPAW软件和数值插值方法估算了密云水库流域主要土壤的物理属性,并借助GIS技术,成功地在密云水库上游流域构建了SWAT模型。模拟结果表明所建立的天气发生器正确的反映了流域内的气候特征,通过土壤质地插值并由SPAW软件得出的土壤物理属性基本反映了流域内土壤物理特性的空间分布特征,SWAT模型适用于海河流域北部以山地为主的地区。
(2)对SWAT模型进行了敏感性分析、率定和验证,确定了模型的主要参数,为研究密云水库上游流域的非点源污染建立了一个技术平台,揭示了密云水库上游流域的非点源污染时空分布特征。非点源污染主要发生在汛期,潮河流域的非点源污染流失状况比白河流域严重。
(3)计算了密云水库1986～1991年间营养物污染的贡献率。研究表明,密云水库流域由于人类活动影响而产生的TN、TP污染负荷占流域总污染负荷的1/3左右,其余的污染负荷是土壤背景值产生的,与土地利用有关。在这部分人为可控的污染负荷中由非点源所产生的污染负荷占4/5,因此加强流域内的非点源控制是未来流域管理的重点。
(4)对密云水库土壤侵蚀和营养物流失的关键区进行了识别。根据SWAT模型模拟结果计算各子流域的侵蚀模数,然后按照土壤侵蚀强度分级标准对各子流域内的土壤侵蚀强度进行了分级。为了保护人体的健康和生物安全,采用USEPA颁布的水质标准,对各子流域出口的硝态氮和可溶解磷的浓度进行了估算。其结果表明,潮河和白河上游部分子流域的河流中可溶解磷的浓度存在过高的风险,应采取有效措施予以减缓。
(5)分析了密云水库流域20世纪90年代土地利用的时空变化规律。研究表明,流域内土地利用程度较低,植被覆盖情况良好,而以90年代中期最佳。流域内地类间的转移、增减处在不断的变动中,且主要发生在耕地、林地和草地这三种主要的土地利用类型之间。耕地的消长是影响其它两种地类的重要因素,因而在密云水库流域农业活动是土地利用变化的主要驱动力。通过把90年代三期土地利用图分别输入SWAT模型,采用1986～1991年的气象条件,模拟结果表明与90年代初期和末期的土地利用相比,90年代中期的土地利用/覆盖下可以减少密云水库的非点源污染负荷。
(6)采用Dillon模型计算了密云水库TN和TP环境容量。结果表明,TN的入库负荷在90年代初就已经接近或超过了水库的环境容量,进入90年代以来,随着化肥施用量的逐年增加和畜禽养殖业的快速发展,TN的入库负荷随之增加,导致密云水库长期以来TN指标不能达到国家地表水II类水体标准。同样,TP虽然有一定的环境容量,但是如不加以控制,势必超过水体的纳污能力。
(7)根据污染负荷贡献率的大小对污染负荷进行了分配,初步制定的分配方案是在赤城和大阁两个乡镇建立污水处理厂,畜禽养殖和化肥施用量减少2/5。模型模拟结果表明,该方案可以实现预期的总量控制指标,是切实可行的。
(8)通过情景分析,为非点源污染控制提供了决策的依据。模拟了8种不同的管理情景下密云水库流域非点源污染负荷的削减量,在实际工作中可以选用一个或多个的组合达到非点源污染控制的目的,为流域管理和非点源污染控制提供了科学依据。
论文主要创新点为:
研究了20世纪90年代密云水库流域土地利用变化的时空特征及其对水资源的质和量的影响。
对SWAT模型的构建方法进行了有益的尝试。
把SWAT模型与水源地保护相结合,拓展了SWAT模型的应用领域。
With the development of economy and society as well as the aggravation of the urbanization process, the issues on water and city become one of the great challenges that the international society faces this century. It is an important measure to solve the regional shortage of water for protecting current clean water sources from pollution while developing new resources and reducing wastes. Miyun Reservoir, the mere surface water source for drinking water in Beijing presently,is facing serious threat of eutrophication in recent years. The improvement of water quality in the reservoir is related with the safety of drinking water and the sustainable development of economy and society in Beijing. On the basis of the theories and methods such as watershed management, conjunctive control of both point and nonpoint sources, land use and management, etc., a distributed hydrological model SWAT was developed by using GIS (Geographic Information System) technique to investigate the water source protection on the Miyun Reservoir. The main conclusions are as follows:
(1) For the purpose to develop the weather generator in SWAT model, a method to estimate daily solar radiation was proposed on the basis of relationship between sunshine duration and solar radiation. The interpolation method was used to make the soil grain size conversion, and the soil water characteristics were estimated by the SPAW program to build up soil property database. The result shows that the weather generator accurately reflects the climate characteristic and the estimated soil property parameter value can describe the soil spatial distribution in the basin. It is proved that the SWAT model can be used in the upland areas in northern Hai Basin.
(2) The sensitive parameters were identified through sensitive analysis and the calibration and validation for streamflow, sediment and nutrients were performed. A scientific platform was built to investigate NPS (Nonpoint source) pollution in the Miyun Reservoir basin. The spatio-temporal distribution features of NPS pollution in the Miyun Reservoir basin were revealed. NPS pollution mainly takes place in flood season, and it is more serious in the Cao River watershed than that in Bai River watershed.
(3) The nutrition contributing ratio in the Miyun Reservoir was estimated. The study shows that one third of the total TN and TP load are produced by the human activity in the Miyun Reservoir basin, and other pollution load was produced by the soil background value which is related to landuse. Nearly four fifth of the pollution load which is controlled by people is attributed to NPS. Therefore, the emphasis of basin management should be put on the NPS control in the Miyun Reservoir basin.
(4) The critical areas of soil erosion and nutrient loss were identified. According to the simulation result the soil erosion module were calculated in each subbasin and their soil erosion intensities were classified. For the purpose to protect people health and biological safety, the concentration of nitrate and soluble phosphorus were calculated at the outlets of each subbasin. The result shows there may be potential risks in too high concentration of soluble phosphorus at some outlets of subbasins in upstream of the Miyun Reservoir basin.
(5) The spatio-temporal features of land use changes in the Miyun Reservoir basin during 1990s were analyzed. The result shows that the centric shift and transition between different landuse were intensive, and agriculture activity was major driving forces for the changes. Comparatively, the land use in 1995 was beneficial to reduce the NPS pollution load into the Miyun Reservoir.
(6) The environmental capacity of TN and TP in the Miyun Reservoir were calculated by using Dillon model during the period from 1991 to 2003. Compared with the inflow load, there is no margin for TN load even in the early 1990s. With the increase of fertilizer use and the development of poultry and livestock breeding, the inflow load will increase too and lead to the water quality below to meet the national standard II of water environment. It is same for TP, but there still have some margin for it. Measures must be taken to prevent the entering load from exceeding the capacity.
(7) The pollution loads were assigned by the contribution ratio. The preliminary allocative decision is to build sewage treatment plants in both Chicheng and Dage towns and decrease 2/5 pollution load from poultry, livestock and fertilizer. The simulation result shows that these measures are feasible.
(8) Eight scenarios were proposed to find the best management practices, from which one or different combination of these scenarios may be selected to prevent NPS pollution. The main innovations in this study include:
The spatio-temporal features of land use changes in the Miyun Reservoir basin during the 1990s and its effects on water resources have been analyzed;
The method to set up SWAT model has been proposed;
The field of SWAT model application has been extended to water source protection.
引文
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