摘要
住房问题一直是国家发展和调控的焦点问题之一,近年来,国内住宅市场更是呈现量价齐升的局面,住房问题已经成为关系国计民生的头等大事。基准收益率作为经济评价体系中的关键参数,是反映该行业投资收益水平的重要标志,是国家和政府部门制定各项决策和政策的重要依据,也是企业判断项目是否可行的重要依据。《建设项目经济评价方法与参数》第三版中,通过德尔菲法测算了房地产开发项目的基准收益率和资本金收益率,但是本次测算并没有进行定量计算。
本文从定量计算的角度出发,首先分析比较了测算基准收益率的各种计算方法和模型的优缺点,包括加和法、加权平均资金成本估算法、项目模拟实测法、统计分析法、德尔菲法以及资本资产定价模型等,最终选择资本资产定价模型(CAPM)作为测算基准收益率的主要模型。在此基础上,通过分析国债利率和银行利率的特征,对无风险利率进行了测算;利用股票市场上的数据,通过线性回归的方法测算出行业的风险系数;利用不变价格,通过统计法计算出了社会资本收益率,并对其进行通货膨胀因素修正,然后用线性回归的方法测算出目前的社会资本收益率。最后用资本资产定价模型测算出目前国内住宅市场的融资前税前行业基准收益率。通过与《建设项目经济评价方法与参数》(第三版)中房地产开发企业融资前税前行业基准收益率相比较,证明本文的测算结果具有较高的参考价值。
Housing problem is one of the focus problems concerning about the country's development and Macro-control. In recent years, both the price and the quality has been risen in the domestic housing market. Housing problem has become the most important problem related to people's life and the country's development. As a key parameter used in economic evaluation system, benchmark yield is an important sign which reflects the investment income level of the industry. It is the reference that the government used to make decision and make policy. It is also the basis that the enterprise used to judge whether the project is feasible. The third edition of method and parameters of construction project economic evaluation, used Delphi Method measured the benchmark yield and the Capital Gains Rate of real estate project, but this calculation did not conduct in quantitative way.
This paper conducted from the perspective of quantitative calculation. First, analyzed and compared of the advantages and disadvantages of the benchmark yield calculation methods and models, such as: Canada and the Law, cost estimated method of weighted average Funds, project simulation and determination, statistical analysis, Bechtel Philippine law as well as the Capital Asset Pricing Model(CAPM) and finally choose CAPM as the main model to estimate the benchmark yield. Based on this, analyzed the characteristic of bonds and bank interest rate, and calculated a risk-free interest rate. Calculated the risk factor of the industry by using datas from stock markets through the linear regression approach. Used constant price, through statistic method to amend inflation factors, and used the Linear Regression method to calculate the present social financial Earnings. Finally, calculated the current pre-tax and pre-financial benchmarks yield of the industry in domestic housing market. By compared with pre-tax and pre-fmancial benchmarks yield of real estate enterprise in method and parameters of construction project economic evaluation(the third edition) ,the measured results in this paper is proved that it has a high reference value.
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