摘要
气候是传染病传播的重要影响因素之一,它的任何变化都会对自然生态系统和社会经济系统产生影响。血吸虫病是一种严重危害人类身体健康的人畜共患的传染性寄生虫病,血吸虫病在我国主要在长江流域的湖北、湖南、江西、安徽、江苏五省湖区流行,其中江西省的11个疫区主要位于鄱阳湖地区以及赣江的部分区域。近年来,鄱阳湖流域的血吸虫病疫情呈扩散趋势,疫区主要分布于湖区沿岸8县160个乡、镇,受感染威胁的人口达超过200×104人,直接影响到国计民生,严重制约鄱阳湖生态经济区社会经济的发展。
血吸虫病的分布传播与温度、光线、雨量和湿度等气候因子密切相关,其分布呈明显的区域性。作为血吸虫的唯一中间宿主钉螺,其孳生与分布直接影响着血吸虫病的流行与传播。在自然界中,钉螺一般在4～6月和9～10月活动频繁,气温和光线主要影响血吸虫中间宿主钉螺的繁殖、虫体在螺体内的发育和幼虫在环境中的生存(包括毛蚴的孵化和尾蚴的逸出)等;降雨量和湿度则影响钉螺孳生地分布,钉螺的地理分布很大程度上决定了血吸虫的空间分布。鄱阳湖区水面血吸虫尾蚴的分布,有着明显的季节性变化,本文选取鄱阳湖血吸虫病疫区南昌、新建、进贤、鄱阳、余干、永修、星子和都昌8个站点查灭螺统计数据、实测气温、降水量等资料,构建鄱阳湖区气候变化—血吸虫病传播指数预测模型,预测血吸虫病传播;利用洛伦茨曲线、泰尔系数分析有螺洲滩的空间变化,结合GIS技术和Excel、SPSS等计量软件分析气候变化背景下鄱阳湖区血吸虫病疫情时空分布特征。
研究结果表明:在气候变化背景下,鄱阳湖区血吸虫病流行人口迅速增长不仅与鄱阳湖区各县域内温度、降水量变化密切相关,与温度呈正比关系、降水量成反比关系;鄱阳湖区血吸虫病传播不仅在时间尺度上具有很大的差异;而且鄱阳湖区血吸虫病传播在湖区各县域内空间变化也较大。鄱阳湖区适宜钉螺、血吸虫的生境已向北移动,有可能造成血吸虫病疫情传播也会向北偏移,进一步影响鄱阳湖区血吸虫病疫情流行态势的蔓延。
研究结果将为鄱阳湖生态经济区的社会、经济发展和生态环境保护提供决策依据,也可为江西乃至全国湖沼型的血吸虫病防治提供借鉴的模式。
The climate is one of the important factor spread of infectious diseases, any of its changes are going to produce influence the natural ecological systems and the socio-economic systems. Schistosomiasis,which is mainly prevailing in the Yangtze river basin of Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Anhui, Jiangsu five provinces in our country. Including, the eleven schistosomiasis epidemic areas are mainly located in Poyang lake region and the part of Ganjiang River in Jiangxi Province. In recent years, schistosomiasis is spreading tendency, its is mainly distributed in the area of 8 counties including of 160 townships and towns in Poyang lake region.The number of population infected exceeds 200 million in epidemic area.Its directly affect people's livelihood, which seriously restricted the development of social economy Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Region.
It found that prevalence and transmission of Schistosomiasis is closely related to climate factor-such as temperature, light, rainfall and humidity, and it is obviously regional distribution. Oncomelania-as the only intermediate host schistosomia- breeding and distribution directly influence the prevalence and transmission of schistosomiasis. In nature, the Oncomelania activity frequent between April to June and September to October activity. Temperature and light main influence Oncomelania reproductive, Schistosomia development and growth inside the Oncomelania body, Larvae in the environment survive including Miracidia hatching and Cercariae escape et.Rainfall and humidity affected the distribution of Oncomelania habitats.The geographical distribution of Oncomelania determines the spatial distribution of schistosomia. The cercariae of schistosome has a significant seasonal variation in Poyang lake region. This paper selects eight epidemic of schistosomiasis- including nanchang, xinjian, jinxian, poyang, yugan, yongxiu, xingzi and duchang-selected sites search and molluscicidal Oncomelania statistics, the measurement temperature, precipitation ,etc material in Poyang lake region. It construct Poyang lake region of climate change - schistosomiasis transmission index prediction model to predict schistosomiasis spreading. Use Lorenz curve and Theil coefficient analysis of spatial variation Oncomelania islet. Combine GIS technology and Excel, SPSS and other metrology software to analysis the epidemic of schistosomiasis spatial and temporal distribution features in Poyang Lake region based on climate change.
The results showed that the rapid increase of prevalence schistosomiasis is not only closely related to the change of each county temperature and precipitation, but also it related to temperature positively and related to precipitation inversely based on climate change in Poyang lake region. The transmission of schistosomiasis not only in time of great differences in scale and the spread of schistosomiasis is large district and spatial variation in Poyang lake region. Appropriate of habitat Oncomelania and schistosoma has been moving northward, also it may cause schistosomiasis transmission will move northward. Further impact on the epidemic situation of schistosomiasis spread in Poyang lake region.
The research result will provide basis for decision making the social, economic development and environmental protection in Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Region. Meanwhile it will provide jiangxi province and even the whole country of schistosomiasis prevention jiangxi and even the whole country of schistosomiasis prevention.
引文
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