摘要
1979年伊斯兰革命将现代伊朗历史分成截然不同的两个时期,除了政治、文化的差异外,经济发展模式也完全不同。巴列维王朝主张全盘西化,在经济上体现为不计代价的工业化。在60、70年代,伊朗经济实现了高速增长,但也积累了大量问题,并最终成为推翻王朝的催化剂。伊斯兰革命后,新政权完全颠覆了王朝的一切政策,其实是走向了另一个极端。早在巴列维时期,伊朗便已经出现提倡伊斯兰经济的知识分子,而革命的成功为建立伊斯兰经济体系奠定了基础。但是,理想与现实的较量由此开始。
本文的研究重点在于：第一,现代伊朗伊斯兰经济思想产生的根源、不同流派及实践。第二,伊斯兰革命后最初10年伊朗经济困境的形成,其中主要包括阻碍经济发展的一系列因素、经济指导思想、主要经济政策及宏观经济表现；第三,两伊战后伊朗经济重建和改革不断深化。同上一阶段相比,此时出现了一系列有利于经济改革的因素,同时经济指导思想也发生了变化,许多改革政策陆续展开,宏观经济表现有所改善。但是,此时的伊朗经济仍然面临很多不利因素,其本身发展也存在不少缺陷,最终限制了经济改革的效果。第四,革命以来各产业部门的发展状况,包括农业、碳氢部门、第二产业(非石油制造业、采矿业及动力部门)及服务业。同革命前相比,伊朗产业结构出现了较大变化,特别是逆动现象突出。第五,关于革命后伊朗经济不平等问题的研究,其中包括贫富差距、贫困问题及妇女经济地位的变化。
本文的主要观点包括：第一,伊斯兰革命后伊朗经济长期陷于困境的根源在于政府与政治。派系斗争一直是伊斯兰政权的主要特征,它导致该政府始终没有形成统一的国家意志,最终对理性经济政策的制定与实施产生了强大的阻碍作用。第二,在经济全球化的背景下,内向型的发展战略势必遭遇挫折。伊朗从革命后最初10年的谋求自给自足到自由化、市场化及对外开放的改革充分证明了这一(?)第三,合理的经济政策对经济发展至关重要,因而政府必须充分考虑一切现实因素以保证其实际效果。第四,经济公正必须要以经济发展为前提,否则是釜底抽薪,同时经济发展也要顾及大多数人的利益。第五,两伊战后,伊朗的经济指导思想及发展模式逐渐与王朝时期日趋一致。
总之,伊斯兰革命后的伊朗经济以倒退、停滞及后期的缓慢增长为主要特征,并伴之以剧烈波动。它不是一次很成功的现代化实践。
The history of modern Iran was divided into two distinct periods by 1979 Islamic Revolution. The economic development model was entirely different from each other as well as politics and culture. Pahalvi dynasty advocated total westernization which was characteristic of industrialization at all cost in the case of economy. In the 60's and 70's, Iran's economy had achieved high growth but also accumulated a great number of problems which became a catalyst to overthrow the dynasty eventually. The new government toppled down the dynasty's policy completely after Islamic Revolution and went to another extreme in fact. Some Iranian intellectuals advocated Islamic economy as early as during Pahalvi period and the success of revolution laid the foundation for building Islamic economic system. However, the battle of ideal and reality began since then.
This study focuses on:First, the root cause, different genres and practice of modem Iran's Islamic economic thought. Second, the formation of Iran's economic plight in the initial 10 years after Islamic Revolution, including a series of factors hindering economic development, economic guiding ideology, the main economic policies and macro-economic performance. Third, economic reconstruction and deepening of reform after Iran-Iraq war. Comparing with the preceding stage, a series of factors conductive to economic reform emerged during this period. Meantime the economic guiding ideology changed, many reform policies initiated, and macro-economic performance improved. However, Iranian economy still faced many unfavorable factors and the economic development has a lot of deficits which limited the effects of economic reform ultimately. Fourth, the development of each industrial sector since revolution, including agriculture, hydrocarbon sector, the secondary sector (non-oil manufacturing, mining, power sector) and service sector. Compared with the pre-revolution, there was great change in the industrial structure, especially the reversing phenomenon prominent. Fifth, the study of Iranian economic inequality after revolution, including the gap between rich and poor, poverty and women's economic status change.
The paper's main viewpoints include:First, Iranian long-term economic plight is rooted in its government and politics. Factionalism has been the main feature of Islamic regime which led the government not form a unified national will and then produced strong impediment to formulate and implement rational economic policy. Second, in the context of economic globalization, inward-looking development strategy is bound to stumble. This point has been proved by Iranian reformation from seeking self-sufficiency in the initial 10 years after the revolution to liberalization, market-orientation and opening to the outside world. Third, the rational economic policy is essential to economic development. Therefore, the government must take full account of all the practical factors to ensure its actual results. Fourth, economic justice must be premised on economic development, otherwise no ground under it. Meanwhile, economic development should take into account of the interests of the majority. Fifth, Iranian economic guiding ideology and development mode has been gradually in line with the dynasty after Iran-Iraq war.
All in all, the Iranian economy is characteristic of backward, stagnation and slow growth in the latter period accompanied by volatility since revolution. It is not a very successful practice of modernization.
引文
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[1]世界宪政网http://www.globalcon.cn/Asia/AsiaOther/text/20080818/114723. shtml
[2]伊朗中央银行http://www.cbi.ir/page/5803.aspx
[3]美国能源信息部网站http://www.eia.doe.gov/[4]维基百科全书网站http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economv of Iran
[5]国际货币基金组织网站http://www.imf.org/external/
