摘要
近年来频发的各种非常规突发事件,通常都会引起大规模的应急物资突发需求。应急物资作为应对突发需求最重要的资源保障,不及时充足供应可能会导致事件的影响范围迅速扩大以及次生事件的发生,严重危害公众的生命财产安全和社会生活秩序。而市场通常很难满足大规模的突发需求,在非常规突发事件爆发后,如何筹措和提供大量的应急物资已成为迫切需要关注的研究问题,越来越多的学者和管理者将物资储备作为满足大规模突发需求的重要保障,并进行详细研究。
然而,现有的物资储备研究主要围绕实物储备的规模、结构、布局和调运等方面展开,对物资储备的其他储备方式缺乏必要的研究。实物储备无论是在储备规模还是在储备结构上,都不可能而且没有必要满足所有非常规突发事件对应急物资的需求。再加之实物储备在储备空间和时间上的缺陷以及后续保障能力上的不足,使物资储备必须关注其他储备方式。生产能力储备不仅在储备空间和时间方面对实物储备具有重要补充作用,而且还可以保障应急物资的后继供应能力,但相关研究文献很少。随着科技进步,企业生产效率大大提高,生产能力储备在应急时快速转变成实物的目标愈加可行,以生产能力储备作为研究对象,具有十分重要的理论意义和现实意义。
本文在对国内外现有研究成果梳理和总结的基础上,以非常规突发事件应急管理理论和公共物品理论为理论基础,采用微分系统动力学、博弈论、定量与定性相结合等多种研究方法,深入研究了企业剩余生产能力动员、生产能力代储以及生产能力储备共同投资建造等生产能力储备实现途径的关键问题。
从剖析非常规突发事件以及生产能力储备的内涵着手,本文提出了生产能力储备的应急属性和具有临时竞争性但不具有排他性的准公共物品属性,指出生产能力储备的实施必须有政府和生产企业的共同参与。进而构建了生产能力储备实现途径的理论框架,包括企业剩余生产能力动员、政府补贴下企业代储和政府与企业共同投资建造。
首先,本文探讨了企业剩余生产能力的概念和内涵,阐述了其与生产能力储备的区别和联系,指出企业剩余生产能力通过合适的生产动员可以发挥生产能力储备的类似功能,进而构建了企业剩余生产能力的应急生产动员基本模型和多阶段模型。根据价格管制和企业剩余生产能力有限的假设,从企业社会责任、政府动员强度、生产资源获取难度以及突发需求增长方式等角度深入地研究了政府如何通过市场手段快速提高应急物资产量。并考虑根据非常规突发事件所处阶段特征制定动员强度存在一定的局限性,构建了基于平时消费量的应急生产动员强度模型,以完善应急生产动员模型。
其次,指出生产能力储备是具有潜在的“消费”和“生产”双重正外部性的公共物品,政府不宜采取直接提供模式,可以通过补贴选择生产企业代储。构建了政府补贴下的生产能力代储企业选择模型,通过政府期望补贴率和企业期望补贴率的比较,实现政府和生产企业的互动及双选。根据实物储备和生产能力储备对本级政府的效用,构建了政府补贴政策模型,通过调整补贴政策影响代储企业将资金分配到库存建设和生产能力建设的比例。
再次,提出从时间维度将生产能力储备在不同时间划分成公共物品和私人物品,政府仅在非常规突发事件发生时动用生产能力储备,平时则可由企业生产经营并获取市场收益,以此作为政府和企业共同投资建造生产能力储备的基础。进而构建了政府和企业同时投资模型和主从博弈投资模型,研究了政府和企业的投资资金的匹配问题,比较了不同投入模式中生产能力储备共建的实现难度、实现总量以及政府和企业的投入强度等。
最后,本文从价格管制、信息发布、剩余生产能力、动员手段、企业社会责任和生产资源供应等角度,对我国出现的“非典”事件、松花江水污染事件和汶川地震等的生产动员进行了深入的案例分析。接着分析了浙江省抗流感药品生产能力代储的案例,针对其存在的问题提出了一些完善建议。考虑生产能力储备共建尚未有实践案例,提出了借鉴国防工业投资主体多元化的想法,并进一步提出了政府的投资管理建议。
In recent years, the frequent unconventional emergencies usually cause large-scale demand of emergency items in a short time. Emergency items as the most important resource support must be sufficient to deal with an emergency, otherwise the scope of disaster-affected region and the amount of victims will increase rapidly, and secondary emergencies may also occur, which will threaten seriously the people’s lives, property and the order of social life. But the market is usually very difficult to meet the large-scale emergent demand. How to raise and provide abundant emergency items after an unconventional emergency occur has become a research question which needs to be solved. Thus, material reservation, as the significant guarantee to meet large-scale emergent demand, has been studied in detail by more and more scholars and operators.
However, the existing researches on material reservation mainly focus on physical scale, configuration, distribution, allocation, transportation, etc., but lack essential work on other types of material reservation. No matter how to plan the scale and configuration of physical reserves, it is often impossible and unnecessary to meet demand of any possible unconventional emergency. In addition, the physical reservation has much limitation in reserve space and duration, and may be confronted with the following shortage of support ability, thus other types of material reservation draw people’s attention. Production capacity reservation plays an important complementary role in physical reservation in reserve space and duration, but also ensures the following support ability of emergent materials. However, there is very little related literature. With the advance in technology, production efficiency of enterprises has been much enhanced. It is feasible to rapidly transform production capacity reservation into physical resources. Capacity reservation as the object of study has a very important significance in theory and practice.
Based on a review of status quo of research at home and abroad, the dissertation takes emergency management theory and public goods theory as theoretical basis, uses many kinds of research techniques, such as differential system dynamics, game theory, qualitative and quantitative analysis, etc., and deeply analyzes the key questions in realizations of production capacity reservation, including the mobilization of enterprise spare capacity, selection of entrusted enterprises, and co-built of production capacity reservation between government and enterprises.
Starting with anatomizing the intension and extension of unconventional emergency and production capacity reservation, the dissertation proposes that production capacity reservation has the emergency nature and quasi-public goods nature with temporary competition and non-exclusionism, and point out that it is necessary for the government and enterprises to participate jointly during carrying out the production capacity reservation. Then the dissertation constructs a theoretical framework of realization ways of the production capacity reservation, including mobilization of enterprise spare capacity which is a kind of temporary production capacity reservation, production capacity reservation of entrusted enterprises under the government subsidy, and co-built of production capacity reservation between government and enterprises.
Firstly, the dissertation discusses the concept and intension of enterprise spare capacity, expounds the difference and relationship between enterprise spare capacity and production capacity reservation, and point out that appropriate mobilization of enterprise spare capacity has a similar function of production capacity reservation, and then constructs the basic model and the multi-stage model on emergency production mobilization based on enterprise spare capacity. According to the assume that price is controlled and enterprise spare capacity is limited, from aspects of enterprise social responsibility, government mobilization intensity, difficulty in gaining resources for production and growth mode of emergent demand, the dissertation deeply investigates how government can increase the output of emergency items with market-oriented levers. In view of the limitation of setting mobilization intensity according to the characteristics of various unconventional emergency stages, the dissertation constructs the model of mobilization intensity of emergency production based on usual consumption in order to improve mobilization model of emergency production.
Secondly, the dissertation point outs that production capacity reservation has a dual potential positive externality of“production”and“consumption”, and the government should entrust enterprises with the reservation of production capacity and provide subsidies for those enterprises instead of direct provision model. The dissertation constructs a selection model of entrusted enterprises under government subsidy that implements two-way selection between the government and the enterprise by the comparison of government expected subsidy rate and enterprise expected subsidy rate. According to utilities of physical reservation and production capacity reservation for the government at the corresponding level, the dissertation constructs a government subsidy policy model which can help the government adjust subsidy policy to affect the allocation proportion of enterprise investment on physical inventory and production capacity reservation.
Thirdly, the dissertation proposes that production capacity reservation is classified into public goods and private goods form the time dimension, and production capacity reservation is only used by the government when an unconventional emergency occurs and is used by enterprises to obtain market profits in normal times, which is taken as the basic of the government and enterprise co-building production capacity reservation. Then the dissertation constructs the joint investment model as well as the principal and subordinate game model to study the matching problem of investment fund between the government and enterprises, and compares the implementation difficulty and total scale, investment strength of the government and enterprises for co-building production capacity reservation in the three investment models.
Finally, the dissertation analyzes the Songhua River pollution incident, SARS and the Wenchuan Earthquake in our country and proposes some policy advices in aspects of price control, information distribution, rumor contorl, spare production capacity, mobilization means, enterprise social responsibility and productive resources supply. Then the dissertation analyzes the case of enterprise production capacity of the anti-flu drug for Zhejiang province and puts forward some improving advices. As there is almost no precedent of co-building production capacity, the dissertation suggests learning lessons from the diversification of investors in defense industries and proposes administrative advices for the government investment.
引文
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