摘要
水资源是最基础的自然资源,是生态环境的决定性和控制性因素,是人类历史和文化得以发展、延续的核心资源之一,也是城市形成和发展的必要条件。城市快速发展给城市带来了一系列的水资源和水生态环境问题。水资源已经成为制约我国城市经济发展和社会进步的主要因素。水资源短缺、水污染严重和水资源管理落后是我国城市面临的主要水问题,提高水资源利用效率、优化水资源配置和加强水资源管理是解决城市水问题的主要手段。本文针对这些问题,评述了国内外研究进展,运用可持续发展理论、粗糙集理论、宏观经济学等相关理论,对城市与水资源的关系、城市水需求管理、城市水资源优化配置、城市水资源利用综合评价以及城市水资源管理理论等问题,进行了深入研究,为城市水资源管理政策的制定提供了决策依据和理论支持。
(1)从城市发展对资源的影响和水资源利用对城市发展的影响两个方面,全面描述了城市与水资源的基本关系,分析了我国城市发展过程中水资源可持续利用存在问题的原因,并以城市经济发展为考察面,建立城市经济发展最大化模型和水资源消耗最小化模型,运用对偶理论证明了两模型的对偶关系、最优解存在性,给出了最优解的表现形式和实现条件。之后,给出了我国水资源利用的建议。
(2)系统阐述了作为解决当前我国严峻水危机的有效方法之一的水资源需求管理的各方面内容,详细分析了水资源需求管理研究和实施中存在诸多问题,对我国水资源需求管理现状及面临问题进行了归纳,给出了“大”水需求管理定义和措施分类方法,指出了重点研究方向的研究进展和趋势,给出了我国水需求管理实施机理和实施建议。
(3)系统阐述了城市水资源优化配置的概念、目标、遵循原则,给出了水资源生态经济效益思想的概念和内涵,确立了以水资源生态经济效益最大化为目标的城市水资源优化配置模型的目标函数、约束条件和配置合理性评价方法。
(4)简述了已有水资源利用综合评价方法,根据可持续发展理论、水资源价值理论等,构建了城市水资源利用与水生态环境综合评价体系。并将粗糙集理论引用到指标体系评价方法中,利用粗糙集无需先验知识、只根据客观数据进行评价的特点,降低了在以前的评价方法中的对专家主观判断的依赖性,以综合评价体系为基础,给出了两种基于粗糙集理论是城市水资源利用综合评价方法,并比较了两种方法的效果。最后以北京市为例,进行了实证研究。
(5)评述了水资源综合管理、水资源软水路径管理理论等方面的研究成果,引出水资源管理理论问题,借鉴经济学“时间一致性”原理,指出了城市水资源管理中存在的不一致性问题,给出了水资源资源管理的一致性理论的完整框架,包括基本思想、实施准则、实施方法等,并对北京市用水进行实例分析。
As the most fundametal resource and the crucial factor of affecting eco-environment, water is the core resource and necessary condition of human development and culture evolvement in our history. The development of urbanization aroused a series of water and eco-environmental problems. In our China, water has been restricting urban economy and society progress. Water scarcity, serious pollution and undeveloped water resource management are the main reasons, and increasing water utilization efficiency, optimal urban water deployment method and high improved water resource management might be the effective means. In this dissertation, the advancements of current research was summarized, and based on the relative theory of sustainable development, economics and rough set theory and etc, the relationship of urban development and water resource, water demand management, urban water deployment model, comprehensive assessment method of urban water utilization and water resource management theory were studied which provide the decision base and theory support for the urban water management and policy making.
(1) The basic relationship of city and water resource is described from the aspects of effection from both sides, i.e., urban development and water use. Based on the analysis of the reason caused water problems during the process of urban development, urban economic development was as an observed point, the maximum model of urban economy and minimum model of water consumption were created, the dual relationship between them, the existence and format of optimal solutions, and necessary condition was proved and solved by duality theory. Finally, the suggestions for China water use were presented.
(2) Water demand management as the effective method of solving current water crisis was expatiated by the following facets, the analysis of current research result of water demand management, the summary of the status quo of water demand management execution in China, the concept, classification method and the main research content of generalized water deamand management. The execution mechanism and policy advices of China water demand management was provided.
(3) Water deployment theory was depicted by the concept, purpose and principles. This dissertation advanced a method of water deployment based on the philosophy of the maximum benefit of water ecology-economic from the aspects of concept, contonation and model. The objective function, subjective conditions and evalution method are thus amplified.
(4) Through the analysis of current research, the comprehensive evaluation indicator system of urban wate utilization and water environment was created based on the sustainable development theory and water value theory. By taking advantage of rough set theory merits, that is, no transcendental experience, estimation only by objective data and decreased expert dependence, two comprehensive evaluation algorithms, Rough Set Approach for the Evaluation of urban Water resources utilizaiton (RSAEW) and Dynamic Reduct Approach for the Evaluation of urban Water resources utilizaiton (DRAEW) are designed and exemplified by Beijing data. The meanings of results and the comparision of two algorithms are described.
(5) Summarized the integrated water resource management and water soft path theory. Based on the understanding of inconsistency problem of optimal plans in economics, the inconsistency problem of urban water resources management was pointed out. Thus, water management consistency theory was fully bewritten from aspects of principles, execution steps and meanings by taking use of Beijing data.
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