摘要
经过20多年的农业市场化改革,我国农业生产经营环境已发生了重大变化,农业风险亦已日趋多样化和复杂化。如何在风险环境下提高我国农户农业生产经营决策的科学性,以及采取有效的风险管理对策,对稳定和提高农户农业收入水平具有十分重要的现实意义。
本文在对现有国内外农业风险决策与管理问题相关文献进行比较全面、系统综述的基础上,基于浙江、湖北和陕西315户农户的实地调查数据与资料,采用多种规范的量化实证分析方法,比较研究了不同地区农户农业风险及其弱化措施有效性的认知情况,实证评估了农业生产者的风险偏好,量化了农业风险水平。在此基础上,采用国际上广泛应用的农业风险决策模型——MOTAD模型,实证分析不同地区、类型和规模农户农业预期收入、要素分配和风险水平与偏好之间存在的互动关系,并对以“产量保险”和“合约生产”为主的风险管理对策的有效性进行模拟分析,且据此进一步从微观和宏观两方面提出如何弱化我国农业风险的主要对策。本文研究内容主要涉及以下五个方面:
第一,以农户调查资料为依据,采用描述性统计分析方法,对农业风险来源、认知及目前农户所采用的化解措施有效性等情况进行实证研究。其目的在于分析和探讨不同地区农户及不同产品生产面临的风险因素是否具有差异性,农业生产者对风险认知是否具有家庭特征和地区差异,以及农户对目前农业风险化解措施有效性的认知与评价。
第二,农业生产者风险偏好的实证研究。分析和探讨农业生产者风险偏好及其与个人特征及农户经济结构等因素之间的关系,以深入了解目前我国农户农业生产决策偏好及其所采取的风险管理措施的不同之处。
第三,农业风险水平的实证量化研究。为考察目前我国农业生产经营环境下的农业风险程度,本文首先基于不同地区主要农产品产量、价格及收益的历史变化数据,对不同产品的农业风险水平进行动态量化评估。然后,从农户整体层次上量化和分析目前样本农户的农业风险水平及其地区差异。
第四,风险条件下农户农业生产决策与优化反应分析。在评述国外学术界广泛采用的农业风险决策模型——MOTAD模型的基础上,结合我国农户农业生产经营实际,构建一个能够全面反映我国农户农业生产经营活动的动态风险决策模型,并进行模型模拟分析,探讨风险条件下不同地区、类型和规模农户农业预期收入、要素分配和风险水平与偏好之间存在的互动关系,以在微观层次上揭示我国农业生产经营的风险决策机制与优化反应。
第五,模拟分析不同风险管理对策的有效性。本文在借鉴国内外农业风险管理经验的基础上,设计不同的风险管理情景,基于实证构建的动态风险决策模型,
The past two decades has witnessed gradual market reform towards liberalization and globalization, together with far-reaching changes in agricultural and overall economic developing environment, where both domestic and international markets play increasingly important roles in Chinese agricultural production. Against this backdrop, Chinese farmers face with increasing risks from agricultural market. Moreover, agriculture itself is susceptible to natural risks due to the biological characteristics and exposure to nature, especially for crops prone to damages caused by unfavorable climate, weather, disease and insect pests. In addition, agricultural technology, institution and policy also influence on agricultural production. Therefore, agriculture is a typically risky sector. The type and severity of risks confronting farmers vary with farming systems, climatic, technological, policy and institutional settings, thus making the problem complicated. The variety of agricultural risks which farmers faced makes their income unstable from year to year. Therefore it is of significant importance to stabilize and improve households' agricultural income by scientifically making decisions for agricultural production and effectively managing agricultural risks.This dissertation begins with a review of existing literature about studies on decision-making under agricultural risks as well as risk managing both at home and abroad, and then based on 315 households data from Zhejiang, Hubei and Shanxi Province through field survey, which represents households of different areas, types and scales, the dissertation makes thoroughly empirical studies on household's response to agricultural risks by adopting several quantitative methods. The followings are the main content:To begin with, this dissertation makes empirical analysis of sources and perception of agricultural risks, as well as farmers' evaluation on the effectiveness of the existing countermeasures for sharing and reducing agricultural risks based on data from field investigation.Second, the author measures fanners' risk preference and explores relations between farmer's risk preference and his/her individual characteristics as well as households' economic structure. Undoubtedly, it is of great help to understand throuhghly farmers' risk behavior in agricultural production.Third, the deissertation makes an empirical estimation on agricultural risks. Based on time-series statistical data of price, yield and net income per unit for 12 main agricultural products of Zhejiang, Hubei and Shanxi, the dissertation makes a dynamical estimation on price risks, production risks and income risks respectively for the above 12 products, as well as analyzes the historical changes and relations between the three types of risks for each product. And then the risk level that the
sampling households in those three provinces confronted is evaluated based on cross-sectional data of the above-mentioned 315 households.Fourth, the dissertation empirically analyzes farmer's risk behavior & optimized response for agricultural production by adopting MOTAD model on the basis of households' data from Zhejaing, Hubei and Shanxi. In the first section, the author makes a review of MOTAD model, which is widely used for modeling farming risk decision-making in international agricultural economic studies, and then proposes a dynamic risky decision MOTAD model by taking into account of the characteristics of Chinese small households. Based on the proposed MOTAD model, the author constructs empirical risky decision-making MOTAD model for each of the sampling provinces, respectively, to analyze and compare interlink between expected income, risk and the associated inputs for households of different areas, types and scales.Therefore the micro decision-making mechanism in Chinese agricultural production is explored.Fifth, the author simulates and compares effectiveness of different risk managing measures by setting different risk managing scenarios. Based on the above-proposed dynamic risky decision MOTAD model, as well as use the experiences of farms' risk-managing strategies in foreign countries for reference, the author sets two different scenarios, "yield insurance" and "contracted production", and then constructs the corresponding risky decision models for households of different areas, types and scales in different scenarios. And therefore it is possible to analyze and compare the effectiveness of different risk managing measures (yield insurance and contracted production) to different households.And this dissertation concludes with risk managing countermeasures available to both households and government, which provides the way to effectively share or reduce agricultural risks.Compared with the existing similar domestic study, the main progresses that this dissertation makes are the follows: First, empirically evaluating farmers' risk preference and agricultural risks, which is seldom done in domestic sdudies. Second, on the basis of the international widely-used agricultural risky decision model-MOTAD model, the author proposes a dynamic risky model that is adaptive to Chinese small households, and then uses this model to analyze interlink between expected income, risk and the associated inputs for households of different areas, types and scales, as well as to simulate effectiveness of different risk managing measures by setting different risk managing scenarios, so as to explore the micro decision-making mechanism in Chinese agricultural production. And the third, since the empirical analysis is based on households data from field survey and through canonical quantitative methods, the conclusions and implications are more scientific and of practical significance.
引文
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